loader2
Login ICICI 3-in-1 Account

Open Free Trading Account Online with ICICIDIRECT

Incur '0' Brokerage upto ₹500

BLOG

Lower Inflation print to drive interest rates lower

ICICIdirect Research 17 Apr 2025 DISCLAIMER

CPI inflation came down further to 3.3% in March as against 3.6% in February. It is lower than market expectation of around 3.6%. Last 2-3 months CPI print has come below market expectations by around 20bps to 30bps.

The trend of lower food inflation continues with March CFPI coming at 2.7% as compared to 3.8% in February. In last 5 months, Food inflation has come down sharply from 10.9% in October 2024 to less than 3% in March 2025. Vegetables inflation witnessed a de-growth of (-)7% as compared to -1.0% in February and remain a major contributor for lower inflation. Both higher base and continuous decline on month-on-month basis since last 5 months is driving food inflation lower. Apart from vegetables, pulses and spices also continue to de-grow with negative inflation of -2.7% and -4.9% respectively. Heavyweight cereal with 10% weight is also steadily shifting down (6% in March from 8.7% in June 2024) and positive outlook (normal monsoon).

Core inflation came marginally higher at 4.1% in March as against 4.05 in February largely driven by Gold prices (personal care and effects inflation at 13.5%). Ex-Gold, all other components has inflation in the range of 2.0% to 4.3% (comfortable range for RBI).

Download App

Download Our App

Play Store App Store
market app