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Banks: Trade deal to drive corporate credit growth and FPI inflows

ICICIdirect Research 19 Feb 2026 DISCLAIMER

Indian banks are not directly exposed to US tariffs; however, easing trade tensions and improved US–India relations help reduce global macro uncertainty, supporting risk appetite and capital flows.
The key transmission is via improved export outlook and corporate capex sentiment, particularly in export-linked sectors (manufacturing, engineering, chemicals), which can aid incremental credit demand across working capital, term loans and trade finance. In addition, clarity offers relief from any anticipated asset quality stress related to exposure towards export-oriented units.
We expect mid-sized banks to benefit more fundamentally while large cap banks remain beneficiary of likely capital inflows.
Stocks to benefit – HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, Bank of Baroda, PFC

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