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Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd>
  • CMP : 585.8 Chg : -3.80 (-0.64%)
  • Target : 360.0 (11.80%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2022

Weaker marketing offsets refining gains…

About The Stock

Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is a public sector refining & marketing company.

  • BPCL operates more than 19000 retail outlets across the country
  • Petrol & diesel together constitute 63% of marketing sales in FY22
Q4FY22

BPCL reported lower-than-expected earnings in Q4FY22.

  • Revenue was up 4.2% QoQ to ₹ 123550.9 crore (estimate:₹ 143815.9 crore)
  • GRM was lower than expected at US$15.3/bbl (our estimate: US$20/bbl). EBITDA was ₹ 4249.3 crore, up 0.9% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 5219.4 crore)
  • PAT was at ₹ 2130.5 crore, down 13.5% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 3261.6 crore)
What should Investors do?

BPCL’s GRM improved during Q4FY22 and is likely to remain healthy in the near term. However, the company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers while weaker marketing profitability is likely to impact earnings in the near term.

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price Valuation

We value BPCL at ₹ 360 i.e. average of P/BV multiple: ₹ 364/share and P/E multiple: ₹ 356/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Stability in global refining product cracks (mainly diesel)
  • Passing on higher crude oil costs to customers
  • Consistent dividend payout
  • Updates on development regarding divestment will be key monitorable
New Stock Ideas

Apart from BPCL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like RIL.

  • Reliance Industries (RIL) is a diversified business entity with a presence in energy, retail, digital services and media segments. Consumer business will be a growth driver for RIL while stable cash flow is expected from refining segment that will enable expansion in new energy verticals
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 337,495.3 327,580.8 301,865.0 433,406.5 12.4 506,294.1 462,920.5 3.3
EBITDA (| crore) 11,837.0 6,639.3 17,130.6 16,192.8 8.4 11,965.0 17,915.0 5.2
Net Profit (| crore) 7,132.0 2,683.2 19,041.7 8,865.8 2.0 5,392.4 9,535.3 3.7
EPS (|) 36.3 13.6 91.0 41.6 - 25.3 44.8 -
P/E (x) 8.9 23.6 3.5 7.7 - 12.7 7.2 -
Price / Book (x) 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.4 - 1.4 1.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.8 16.7 5.5 6.2 - 8.7 5.7 -
RoCE (%) 13.1 3.5 14.8 13.9 - 7.7 13.2 -
RoE (%) 19.4 8.1 34.9 17.8 - 10.6 17.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Marketing inventory gain supports overall performance

  • BPCL’s marketing sales were at 11.8 MMT (up ~6% QoQ, YoY), in line with estimate. The company reported marketing inventory gain of | 3177 crore which supported overall profitability

 

  • We expect marketing sales at 47.8 MMT and 50 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively

 

  • BPCL achieved crude throughput of 8.1 MMT (up 2.1% QoQ) in line with our estimates. We estimate crude throughput of 32 MMT and 32.4 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively

 

  • Reported GRMs at US$15.3/bbl were lower than our estimate of US$20/bbl. The company does not disclose details on inventory gain. Going ahead, we estimate GRM at US$13.5/bbl and US$8/bbl in FY23E and FY24E, respectively, on account of increase in product cracks

 

Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 1,23,550.9 1,43,815.9 98,755.6 25.1 1,18,536.8 4.2    
Raw materials costs 44,459.5 45,163.6 28,602.2 55.4 36,966.9 20.3    
Employees Cost 914.0 1,132.8 1,132.8 -19.3 892.1 2.5    
Other Expenses 73,928.1 92,300.1 63,962.8 15.6 76,464.7 -3.3    
Total Expenditure 1,19,301.6 1,38,596.5 93,697.8 27.3 1,14,323.7 4.4    
EBITDA 4,249.3 5,219.4 5,057.9 -16.0 4,213.0 0.9   GRM and core marketing margins were lower than expected as per our understanding
EBITDA margins (%) 3.4 3.6 5.1 -168 bps 3.6 -11 bps    
Depreciation 1,273.6 1,165.3 999.8 27.4 1,168.0 9.0    
EBIT 2,975.8 4,054.1 4,058.1 -26.7 3,045.0 -2.3    
Interest 533.8 453.7 477.6 11.8 446.0 19.7    
Other Income 597.6 760.0 1,664.0 -64.1 682.6 -12.5    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 6,993.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 3,039.6 4,360.4 12,237.4 -75.2 3,281.6 -7.4    
Total Tax 909.0 1,098.8 297.3 205.7 819.2 11.0    
PAT 2,130.5 3,261.6 11,940.1 -82.2 2,462.4 -13.5    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 75.2 75.2 72.9 3.2 75.0 0.4    
Throughput (mmt) 8.1 8.1 8.4 -3.2 8.0 2.1    
Sales (mmt) 11.8 11.7 11.2 5.8 11.2 6.0   In line with estimates
GRM ($/barrel) 15.3 20.0 6.6 129.8 9.7 57.5   Lower than estimates

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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I/We, Harshal Mehta, MTech (Biotech), Amogh Deshpande, PGDM, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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