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Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd>
  • CMP : 390.8 Chg : 2.75 (0.71%)
  • Target : 515.0 (47.14%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

08 Aug 2022

Sugarcane crushing to bounce back in 2022-23 season

About The Stock

Balrampur Chini (BCML) is the second largest sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 77500 TCD, distillery capacity of 560 KLD and co-generation capacity of 175.7 MW. It is expected to complete its distillery capex of 490 KLD, modernisation, de-bottlenecking of its sugarcane crushing capacity by December 2022, taking its total distillery capacity to 1050 KLD (35 crore litre).

  • The company is working on replacing the existing Co-0238 sugarcane variety in its catchment area with newer varieties, which would improve sugarcane yields & recovery
Q1FY23 Results

BCML reported dismal results with 66.9% dip in operating profit

  • Sales de-grew 5.3%. Sugar volumes were down 11.8%
  • EBITDA was down 66.9% at Rs 44.4 crore, with margins at 4.1%
  • Consequent PAT was at mere Rs 12.4 crore (down 83.4% YoY)
What should Investors do?

BCML’s share price has gone up 114% in the last five years (from Rs 165 in August 2017 to Rs 356 in August 2022).

  • We expect 40.1% CAGR in distillery volume, which would boost the company’s earnings by 28% CAGR during FY22-24E
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 515, valuing the business at 12x FY24 PE

Key triggers for future price performance
  • With distillery capex, BCML would be able to increase its ethanol capacity 2x to 35 crore litre. Distillery sales are expected to witness 47.1% CAGR to Rs 2109.5 crore in FY22-24E, which would be 35% of total revenues
  • It is undertaking modernisation & de-bottlenecking at some plants. This would lead to higher sugarcane crushing, better recoveries by FY24. We expect 11.9% revenue CAGR in FY22-24E
  • BCML would be replacing Co-0238 with newer sugarcane variety in its catchment areas, which would enhance sugarcane availability & sugar production through higher yields & sugar recovery
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient companies with highest sugar recovery & abundant sugarcane availability. It is increasing its distillery capacity to 2x in the next two years
  • We value the stock at Rs 150/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 5 Year CAGR % (FY17 to FY22) FY22 FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 4,741.3 4,811.7 6.8 4,846.0 5,077.1 6,071.2 - 11.9
EBITDA 682.0 713.8 -3.9 699.7 839.2 1,129.9 - 27.1
EBITDA Margin % 14.4 14.8 - 14.4 16.5 18.6 - -
Net Profit 519.4 479.8 -4.1 464.6 530.8 761.0 - 28.0
EPS (Rs) 23.6 22.8 - 22.8 27.4 41.3 - 34.8
P/E 14.8 15.3 - 15.4 12.8 8.5 - -
RoNW % 21.5 18.3 - 16.9 17.5 22.2 - -
RoCE (%) 16.1 16.4 - 15.3 16.0 23.1 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: New sugarcane varieties, disease management & expected favourable weather to revive sugarcane crushing in 2022-23 season

  • Consolidated revenue witnessed a dip of 5.3% to Rs 1080.1 crore, mainly on account of 3.1% decline in sugar sales and merely 11.6% growth in distillery revenues
  • The dip in sugar sales was due to 11.8% decline in sugar sales volumes to 2.1 lakh tonnes (lt). Sugar realisation was up 7.1% to Rs 35.6/kg. Distillery sales growth was aided by 7.7% growth in distillery volumes (B-heavy ethanol, C-heavy ethanol, ENA) to 5.2 crore litre whereas distillery realisation was flat at Rs 54.2 crore
  • Operating profit witnessed de-growth of 66.9% to Rs 44.4 crore, mainly on account of substantial increase in cost of production due to increase in sugarcane prices in 2021-22 sugar season, lower sugarcane crushing & decline in sugar recovery due to adverse weather conditions
  • However, the impact for BCML was more prominent due to lower sugarcane availability in its catchment area. The company is holding sugar inventory of 3.6 lt valued at Rs 34.12/kg
  • Transfer pricing for B-heavy molasses has been increased from Rs 7/kg in June 2021 to Rs 10.3/kg in June 2022. The company has already supplied 12.17 crore litre of B-heavy ethanol out of 14.82 crore litre contracted quantities for 2021-22. Similarly, it has supplied 0.68 crore litre of C-heavy ethanol out of contracted quantities of 0.9 crore litre
  • Net profit declined 83.8% to Rs 12.4 crore mainly on account of a dip in operating profit, higher tax provisioning and lower profit from associates during the quarter
  • The company has done considerable work on sugarcane development & disease management in its catchment area. Moreover, BCML has been able to replace 20% Co-0238 variety with newer sugarcane varieties. This is expected to improve sugarcane yield in its catchment area in 2022-23 season
  • BCML has experienced 8% increase in sugarcane area near its factories. Further, rainfall in eastern UP is favourable for yield and sugar recovery. With the increase in area under sugarcane and expected improvement in sugarcane yield, the company is estimating 105 lt of sugarcane crushing for 2022-23 season. Given weather conditions are favourable, sugar recoveries are also likely to improve by at least 30 bps for the season. The company expect to start crushing early in 2022-23 season
  • With the completion of capex for sugar refinery, the company would be able to produce 45% of its total production as refined sugar. High grade refined sugar for exports would be closer 10% of its total volumes. ‘London 5’ refined white sugar prices are prevailing at Rs 38/ kg (ex-factory)
  • The country is expected to produce 35.5 million tonnes (MT) sugar in 2022-23 season after the sacrifice of 4.5 MT. Sugar industry would need to export 7-8 MT of sugar in next season. This quantity of exports would be possible given Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase by only 1 MT to 33 MT
  • Ethanol blending has reached 10.17% in 2021-22 with OMCs contracting for 446 crore litre of ethanol, which includes 366 crore litre from sugar industry. OMCs would be floating tender for 2022-23 ethanol blending year to the tune of 545 crore litre for 12% blending levels
  • Ethanol blending of 20% is easily possible given material compatibility of new cars & bikes would get implemented by March 2023. With 20% blending by 2025-26, sugar industry would be sacrificing 7 MT of sugar
  • The government has allowed additional 1.2 MT of exports in 2021-22, which would take the exports in the season to 11 MT. This would bring down sugar inventory to 5.8 MT (sufficient for two months of consumption) by September 2022

The last two sugar seasons were challenging for BCML due to lower availability of sugarcane in its catchment area adversely impacted by red rot disease in eastern UP. Moreover, extreme weather conditions (first unseasonal rains in October 2021 and then extreme heat in April 2022) resulted in lower sugar recovery in 2021-22 sugar season. This, along with the sugarcane price hike resulted in higher cost of production for BCML, specifically. However, currently when sugar millers in UP are preparing to start the new crushing season, it is important to know sugarcane crushing numbers for the 2022-23 sugar season. We believe the company has been able to replace 20-25% of its existing Co-0238 sugarcane variety with newer varieties. We believe the company would be able to increase its sugarcane crushing by ~20% in next season, which would help it regain profitability in sugar segment. On the ethanol front, the company would be commissioning its new distillery by December 2022, which would help it increase ethanol production to 35 crore litre by FY24E. We remain positive on the prospects of sugar industry, in general, and BCML, in particular. We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of Rs 515/share.

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