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  • CMP : 437.9 Chg : -12.95 (-2.87%)
  • Target : 515.0 (44.66%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2022

New sugarcane varieties to aid recovery in production

About The Stock

Balrampur Chini (BCML) is the second largest sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 77500 TCD, distillery capacity of 560 KLD & co-generation capacity of 175.7 MW. It is undertaking a distillery capex of 490 KLD & modernisation, de-bottlenecking of its sugarcane crushing capacity at multiple plants.

  • The company would be able to increase distillery volumes to 35 crore litre in FY24 from 18 crore litre in FY22. Moreover, the modernisation plan would result in higher sugarcane crushing & better recoveries
Q4-FY22 Results

BCML reported soft results with flat operating profit number

  • Sales witnessed a growth of 25.5%YoY, aided by higher domestic quota & exports of 35000 tonnes
  • EBITDA was flat at Rs 331 crore, with margins at 25.9%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 240.5 crore (up 2.1% YoY)
What should Investors do?

BCML’s share price has gone up 114% in the last five years (from Rs 167 in May 2017 to Rs 356 in May 2022).

  • We expect 38% cagr distillery volume growth, which would boost earnings with CAGR of 36.8% during FY22-24E
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 515, valuing the business at 12x FY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With distillery capex, BCML would be able to increase its ethanol capacity 2x to 35 crore litre. Distillery sales to witness 43.5% CAGR to Rs 1939.9 crore in FY22-24E, which would be 33% of total revenues
  • It is undertaking modernisation & de-bottlenecking at some plants. This would lead to higher sugarcane crushing, better recoveries by FY24. We expect 9.9% revenue CAGR in FY22-24E
  • BCML is introducing newer sugarcane variety in its catchment areas, which would reduce the dependence on Co-0238 & improve sugarcane availability
New Stock Ideas

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient companies with highest sugar recovery & abundant sugarcane availability. It is increasing its distillery capacity to 2x in the next two years
  • We value the stock at Rs 145/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17 to FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 4,741.3 4,811.7 4,846.0 7.0 5,101.5 5,853.3 - 9.9
EBITDA 682.0 713.8 699.7 -4.2 904.6 1,199.7 - 30.9
EBITDA Margin % 14.4 14.8 14.4 - 17.7 20.5 - -
Net Profit 519.4 479.8 464.6 -4.8 602.2 784.8 - 30.0
EPS (Rs) 23.6 22.8 22.8 - 31.0 42.6 - 36.8
P/E 15.1 15.6 15.6 - 11.5 8.3 - -
RoNW % 21.5 18.3 16.9 - 19.4 22.3 - -
RoCE (%) 16.1 16.4 15.3 - 17.6 23.0 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Sugar exports restriction at 10 MT immaterial given industry is only looking to export 9.5 MT

  • Consolidated revenue witnessed a growth of 25.5% to Rs 1279.6 crore led by 21.7% growth in sugar segment sales & 45% growth in distillery sales. Sugar volume growth was 26.1% to 2.5 lakh tonnes led by 0.35 lakh tonnes of exports & 2.1 lakh tonnes (9.3% higher) of domestic sales. Blended sugar realisation was up 7.8% to Rs 34.5 kg. The company is holding 5.2 lakh tonnes of sugar valued at Rs 34.22 / kg as against 6.4 lakh tonnes valued at | 31.3 / kg
  • Distillery sales growth of 45% led by 35.4% growth in distillery volumes & 5.4% increase in distillery realisation. The company sold 5.13 crore litres of ethanol + ENA during the quarter, which includes 4.42 crore litres of B-heavy ethanol (86.2%), 0.28 crore litres of C-heavy ethanol (5.5%) & 0.43 crore litres of ENA (8.3%) for levy quota
  • Saleable power volumes declined by 18.1% to 34.9 crore units in FY22. The company prefers to sell bagasse after the reduction in tariff in 2020. The transfer pricing for bagasse is Rs 1.4/kg
  • In 2021-22 sugar season, the company crushed 1.5% higher sugarcane at 88.83 lakh tonnes with 31bps lower sugar recovery at 11.48% (Pre-sacrifice). The sugarcane crushing for the company is down by ~16-18% from its peak crushing in 2019-20 sugar season of 105 lakh tonnes. The drop in crushing is mainly due to lower sugarcane availability in its catchment area due to red rott disease & unseasonal rains in October 2021.
  • Planting area in BCML catchment area has increased by 10-15%. The company is aggressively changing its sugarcane varieties by introducing newer varieties like ‘0118’ to reduce dependence on Co-0238. The company expects to reach crushing of 105 lakh tonnes in 2022-23 season. The area under ‘0118’ variety would increase from 13% to 23% in next crushing season. Overall newer varieties would contribute 40% of the company’s catchment area in next one year
  • On an annual basis, the company has registered sale of 17.7 crore litres of ethanol. The capex related to new distillery & de-bottlenecking of crushing capacity would be completed by November 2022. This would result in distillery capacity on 35 crore litres in FY24 (including 5 crore grain based distillery)
  • The transfer pricing for B-heavy molasses is Rs 10.3 / kg.
  • Operating profit was flat at Rs 331 crore despite high sugar & distillery sales volumes mainly due to increase in cost of sugar during the quarter on account of increase in sugarcane price (Rs 25/quintal) during the season and lower recovery rates. Overall cost of production has increased by Rs 3 / kg (Rs 2/kg due to increase in sugarcane prices & Rs 1/kg due to lower recovery in current season)
  • Net profit increased by 2.1% Rs 240.5 crore with small reduction in interest cost & lower provision for taxation. During the quarter, the company sold entire stake in one of its subsidiary called Visual Percept solar project
  • Industry wide sugar exports to the tune of 9.0 million tonnes has already been contracted, out of which 8.2 MT would exported by May End. The industry expected to clock exports of 9.5 MT in the current season. With the expected production of 35.7 million tonnes, consumption of 27.8 million tonnes & exports of 9.5-10 MT, sugar inventories at the end of September 2022 would be closer to 6.0-6.5 MT.
  • The government announcement of sugar export restriction at 10 MT would not have any impact given actual exports would be lower than 10 MT. Further, government is working with closing inventory of 6.0 MT by October 1, which would be maintained even after considering 10 MT exports
  • OMCs have contracted 416 crore litres of ethanol for 2021-22, which would be close to 10% ethanol blending. BCML has contracted for 15.7 crore litres (14.8 crore litres of B-heavy & 0.9 crore litres of C-heavy). 50% of the contracted ethanol is already been supplied. The company expected ethanol blending to reach at 12.5% in 2022-23 & 15% in 2023-24.
  • For 2021-22, Brazilian sugar production was 32.1 MT tonne. In April 2022, crushing is lower and diversion towards Ethanol is higher due to elevated crude prices. The production for 2022-23 season is expected to be ~33 MT tonnes.

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