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Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd>
  • CMP : 395.8 Chg : 0.20 (0.05%)
  • Target : 470.0 (21.45%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 May 2023

Sugar prices up, recovery improves; profits to double

About The Stock

Balrampur Chini (BCML) is the second largest sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 78000 TCD, distillery capacity of 1050 KLD & co-generation capacity of 175.7 MW. It completed its distillery capex in December 2022, which has taken its total distillery capacity to 1050 KLD (35 crore litre).

  • BCML has changed sugarcane variety in more than 50% of catchment area. This would reduce dependence on Co-0238 and improve yield and recovery
Q4FY23 Results

Reported strong results with 22% growth in operating profit.

  • Revenue witnessed growth of 16.6% led by ethanol sales growth of 57.8%
  • EBITDA was up 22% at ₹ 403.9 crore, with margins at 27.1%
  • Higher interest & income tax resulted in PAT growth of mere 5.8% to ₹ 254.4
What should Investors do?

BCML’s share price has gone up 6x in the last five years (from ₹ 62 in May 2018 to ₹ 387 in May 2023).

  • We expect distillery revenue CAGR of 37%. The segment is expected to contribute 32% to revenue
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 470, valuing the business at 15x FY25 PE.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has recovered its sugarcane crushing to 103 lakh tonnes (15% higher) in 2022-23 season with 15 bps higher gross recovery. The increase in crushing would give the company sufficient feedstock to produce 33-34 crore litre of ethanol in FY24E
  • With completion of large distillery capex, distillery volume is expected to grow at 33% CAGR along with estimated 3% increase in ethanol realisation. This would result in 37% CAGR in distillery sales
  • BCML has reduced dependence on Co0238 variety, promoting Co-0118 & other newer varieties in its catchment area. Newer variety would constitute more than 70% sugarcane in its catchment area in the 2023-24 season
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dalmia Bharat Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • It has expanded its distillery capacity to 23 crore litre from 12 crore litre, which would help in utilising sugarcane juice, grains & B-heavy molasses to produce ethanol. Distillery sales to contribute 42% to overall revenues
  • We value the stock at ₹ 490, ascribing a multiple of 12x FY24 earnings

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (FY18 to FY23) FY24E FY25E CAGR (FY23-25E)
Total Operating Income 4,741.3 4,811.7 4,846.0 4,665.9 1.4 5,908.3 6,487.6 0.2
EBITDA 682.0 713.8 699.7 512.0 2.5 931.5 1,038.3 0.4
EBITDA Margin % 14.4 14.8 14.4 11.0 - 15.8 16.0 -
Net Profit 519.4 479.8 464.6 284.2 4.2 535.1 617.6 0.5
EPS (|) 23.6 22.8 22.8 14.1 - 26.5 30.9 0.5
P/E 16.4 16.9 17.0 27.5 - 14.6 12.5 -
RoNW % 21.5 18.3 16.9 9.9 - 15.6 16.1 -
RoCE (%) 16.1 16.4 15.3 9.1 - 17.1 19.1 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY23 Results: Sugar crushing up 15% with 15 bps improvement in gross margins

  • BCML witnessed consolidated revenue growth of 16.6% to | 1491.5 crore led by 29.7% sugar sales growth & 57.8% distillery sales growth. Sugar segment growth was aided by higher realisation on account of export sales & distillery segment sales, driven by higher volumes

 

  • The company sold 2.42 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar at an average realisation of | 36.21/kg. Sugar sales volume includes 0.75 lt of exports & domestic sales of 1.72 lt. We believe the company has foregone domestic sales quota to the tune of 0.42 lt in Q4FY23

 

  • Domestic sugar prices were flat in the range of | 35-35.5/kg in January-March 2023 but higher export sales resulted in 4.9% increase in blended realisation

 

  • During FY23, the company crushed 93.66 lt of sugarcane and produced 9.03 lt of sugar. It diverted 9.2% sugarcane towards juice ethanol & 65.8% sugarcane towards B-heavy ethanol. The company is holding 5.12 lt of sugar valued at | 33.71/kg against 5.33 lt valued at | 34.22/kg

 

  • Sugar crushing in the 2022-23 season was 15% higher at 103 lt. Further gross recovery was higher by ~15 bps to 11.62%

 

  • The strong 57.8% distillery sales growth was driven by 50.1% growth in distillery volumes and 6.5% growth in distillery realisation. The company sold 7.7 crore litre of ethanol at an average realisation of | 58.8/litre. The distillery segment growth was largely led by strong volume growth aided by capacity addition in November-December 2023

 

  • Power segment sales volumes were down 9.2% to 19.2 crore units. The company required captive power to run new distilleries. Further, it prefers to sell excess bagasse rather than produce power for sale. Average tariff was | 3.44/unit during the quarter

 

  • Gross margin expanded 69 bps during the quarter, mainly on account of higher distillery contribution. Employee & overhead spends were lower by 18 bps & 34 bps, respectively. Operating profit grew 22% to | 403.9 crore with operating margin expansion of 121 bps to 27.1%

 

  • Interest cost increased from | 7.8 crore to | 21.1 crore on account of a sharp increase in debt levels due to higher working capital requirement & completion of capacity expansion in December 2022. Income tax rate increased from 21% to 30.6%, mainly due to availability of MAT credit. Net profit grew 5.8% to | 254.4 crore

 

  • Total debt for the company increased sharply by | 668 crore mainly due to completion of capex & higher working capital requirement The company crushed 15% higher sugarcane in current season and completed capacity addition in December 2022. Operating cash flow was | 452.9 crore in FY23

 

  • BCML has seen 7-9% increase in sugarcane area, which would improve sugarcane availability for 2023-24 season for the company. It is continuously reducing its dependence on sugarcane variety of Co-0238 from 75% two years back to 46% in current season. This would further go down to 27% in the 2023-24 sugar season

 

  • High yielding sugarcane variety Co-0118 has increased from 4-5% two years back to 20% in the current season, which would further go up to 33% in 2023-24 sugar season. The company has also done ratoon management, which would help it get better recovery in coming seasons

 

  • BCML is expected to crush 10% higher sugarcane in 2023-24 season. The company has enough crushing & distillery capacity to process 120 lakh tonnes of sugarcane
  • Ethanol produced from sugarcane juice has lower margin compared to B-heavy ethanol margin. However, the gap in margin between the two routes would narrow with better utilisation of assets & efficiencies

 

  • The company expects to produce 33-34 crore litre of ethanol in FY24 given the capacities would be fully utilised. The ethanol volumes would include 5 crore litres produced from grains & remaining produced from sugarcane juice & B-heavy molasses

 

  • It would divert 11% of its sugarcane towards sugarcane juice route & 67% towards B-heavy route to produce ethanol. Further, we expect 22% sugarcane diversion towards C-heavy Molasses largely to produce ENA for mandatory levy requirement for country liquor

 

  • Country wise sugar production is expected to be 32.7 MT. Considering consumption of 27.7 MT & exports of 6.3 MT, sugar inventory is expected to come down by at least 1 MT at the start of new crushing season on October 1, 2023.

 

  • Given sugar inventories are lowest in the last five years, domestic sugar prices have moved up | 2-3/kg since 1sr April. Further, sugar prices are expected to remain firm until November 2023 (crushing generally starts post Diwali)

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

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