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  • CMP : 437.9 Chg : -12.95 (-2.87%)
  • Target : 435.0 (20.17%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

Sugarcane availability restored, sugar recovery up…

About The Stock

Balrampur Chini (BCML) is the second largest sugar company with sugar crushing capacity of 77500 TCD, distillery capacity of 1050 KLD & co-generation capacity of 175.7 MW. It has completed its distillery capex in December 2022, which has taken its total distillery capacity to 1050 KLD (35 crore litres).

  • BCML has changed sugarcane variety in its 40% of catchment area. This would reduce dependence on Co-0238 & improve yield & recovery
Q3FY23 Results

BCML reported weak results with 19.1% de-growth in sales

  • Sales de-grew by 19.1%, sugar volumes were down by 34.9%
  • EBITDA was down 20.2% at ₹ 79.7 crore, with margins at 8.1%
  • Consequent PAT was at mere ₹ 46.3 crore (down 27.8% YoY)
What should Investors do?

BCML’s share price has gone up 3x in the last five years (from ₹ 116 in February 2018 to ₹ 362 in February 2023).

  • We expect 25.6% distillery volume CAGR, which would boost the company’s earnings by 11.1% CAGR during FY22-25E
  • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 435, valuing the business at 14x FY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • After two consecutive years of poor sugarcane availability & dip in recovery, BCML is likely to see ~15% increase in sugarcane crushing & 15-20 bps higher sugar recovery. This would boost distillery volumes in next two years
  • With completion of large distillery capex, BCML has increased its ethanol capacity by 2x to 35 crore litres. Distillery sales to witness 29% CAGR to ₹2091.2 crore in FY22-25E, which would be 33% of total revenues
  • BCML started replacing Co-0238 with newer sugarcane varieties in its catchment areas, which would improve sugarcane yields & sugar recovery  going forward. De-bottlenecking in some of the plants would also help in crushing sugarcane early, which would improve sugar recovery
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dalmia Bharat Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • It has expanded its distillery capacity to 23 crore litre from 12 crore litre which would help in utilising sugarcane juice, grains & B-heavy molasses to produce ethanol. Distillery sales to contribute 42% to overall revenues
  • We value the stock at ₹ 490, ascribing a multiple of 12x FY24 earnings

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) (%) FY23E FY24E FY25E CAGR (FY22-25E)
Total Operating Income 4,741.3 4,811.7 4,846.0 7.0 4,772.2 5,929.2 6,392.5 0.1
EBITDA 682.0 713.8 699.7 -4.2 570.7 959.1 1,061.6 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 14.4 14.8 14.4 - 12.0 16.2 16.6 -
Net Profit 519.4 479.8 464.6 -4.8 334.5 570.6 636.5 0.1
EPS (|) 23.6 22.8 22.8 - 17.2 31.0 36.6 0.2
P/E 15.3 15.8 15.9 - 21.0 11.7 9.9 -
RoNW % 21.5 18.3 16.9 - 11.4 16.7 17.2 -
RoCE (%) 16.1 16.4 15.3 - 10.8 19.0 20.4 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3FY23 Results: Sugar crushing likely to be higher by 15%, sugar recovery to improve by 15-20 bps

  • Consolidated revenues witnessed a de-growth of 19.1% to | 981.2 crore on account of 14% & 8.1% dip in sugar & distillery sales respectively

 

  • The decline in sugar sales was mainly due to 34.9% dip sugar volumes given as the company was holding low sugar inventory at the start of October-2022. The company sold 2.03 lakh tonnes of sugar during the quarter, which included 0.65 lakh tonnes of exports & remaining 1.37 lakh tonnes of domestic sales. Sugar realisation was flat at | 36.5 / kg

 

  • The 8.1% de-growth in distillery sales was mainly on account of decline in distillery volumes by 10.3% to 2.8 crore litres due to late start of crushing season & delay in commissioning of 170 KLD distillery at Balrampur unit (in Mid-December). Distillery realisation was up 2.8% to |52.1 / litre

 

  • Power volumes were down by 4.6% to 8.93 crore units with average tariff of | 3.41 / unit ( up 3.6%). The company is holding 1.32 lakh tonnes of Bagasse valued at |1.8 / kg as on December 2022 compared to 1.12 lakh tonnes valued at |1.4 / kg.

 

  • With late start of crushing season, distillery volumes would be 20.5 crore litres in FY23. We estimate distillery volumes of 33 crore litres & 35 crore litres in FY24E & FY25E

 

  • The company is holding 1.58 lakh tonnes of sugar valued at |35.47 / kg at the end of December-2022. With the higher crushing numbers & increase in sugar recovery, inventory costs would come down.

 

  • The company crushed 2.61 lakh tonnes of sugarcane (till December-2022). It is expected to crush 103 lakh tonnes in 2022-23 season, which would be 15% higher compared to last season. Moreover, we expect 15-20 bps higher sugar recovery in 2022-23 season (lower by 15 bps from peak recovery)

 

  • In current season, the company have diverted 65.5% of its sugarcane towards B-heavy ethanol, 5.9% towards sugarcane juice & remaining 28.6% towards ENA / C-heavy ethanol (till December 2022). Transfer pricing for B-heavy molasses was |10.3 / kg during the quarter.

 

  • Operating profit de-grew by 20.2% to |79.7 crore during the quarter with operating margin of 8.1%. The decline in profit is mainly due to lower sugar & distillery sales volumes & increase in fixed costs (employee & overhead spends).

 

  • Interest cost increased by 57.4% to | 5.9 crore on account of completion of capex & increase in debt for the same. Other income increased by 74.3% to |20.2 crore. Net profit declined by 27.8% to |46.3 crore impacted by lower operating profit, higher interest cost & depreciation provisioning

 

  • The decline in distillery revenue was mainly due to late start of crushing in eastern UP. Further, the company added 320 KLD & 170 KLD capacity at Maizapur & Balrampur unit respectively only in mid of the quarter, which would have contributed minimal volumes during the current quarter.

 

  • The company has completed its entire distillery capex, which has taken its total distillery capacity to 35 crore litres pa. With this capacity, it has become largest ethanol suppliers in the country

 

  • The company has replaced 40% of the sugarcane in its catchment area with newer variety. This would help in reducing dependence on Co-0238. It would encourage 4-5 sugarcane varieties rather the concentrating on one single variety.

 

  • BCML has announced a capex of | 104.5 crore for the expansion of distillery capacity by 2000 TCD (2% of overall crushing capacity) at its Kumbi Plant. The expansion would be completed by November-2023.

 

  • The company has declared a dividend of | 2.5 / share during the quarter

 

  • Industry wide sugar production is expected to be 34 million tonnes (MT). Given sugar consumption is 27.5 MT & export of 6.1 MT, sugar inventory levels are likely to remain similar to previous year levels (~5.5 MT by September 2023).

  • With tight sugar supply, any further dip in sugar production or filling of trade pipe line inventories would push domestic sugar prices by |2-3/kg to |37-38/kg
 

BCML is one of the biggest & efficient sugar company in India. With the completion of its distillery capex, it has reached annual ethanol production capacity of 35 crore litres (largest in India). In last two seasons, the company has been adversely impacted by lower sugarcane availability & adverse sugar recovery due to red rott issues & unseasonal rains in its catchment area. We believe in current season (2022-23), sugarcane crushing as well as sugar recovery should recoup to the higher levels. However, the sharp recovery in operational volumes would be reflected in FY24 & FY25E numbers.  Moreover, ~26% distillery volumes cagr during FY22-25E would result in strong earnings growth despite challenges related to sugar recovery (in last two seasons). We maintain our Buy recommendation with revised target price of | 435 /share (earlier: | 500)  

Disclaimer

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