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  • CMP : 1,011.4 Chg : 3.60 (0.36%)
  • Target : 8,500.0 (32.94%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jul 2022

Growth with strong NII and improved asset quality

About The Stock

Bajaj Finance with its digital transformation is quickly moving from just consumer finance to multiple segments and harnessing it large franchise base digitally.  Housing has grown to a significant size.

  • AUM (₹204018 crore) mix as of June 30, 2022 – Consumer: Rural: SME: Commercial: Mortgage at 44%:14%:18%:15%:9%.
  • Bajaj Finance maintained strong operating metrics over various credit and rate cycles leading to >18% RoE and > 4% RoA.
Q1FY23

Stellar business momentum, asset quality improved.

  • Strong NII growth at 48% YoY better than estimates at ₹ 6636 crore
  • Opex to NII rose to 35.9% vs. 34.6 % QoQ as costs elevated.
  • GNPA, NNPA ratio declined to 1.25%, 0.51%, respectively, in Q1FY23
  • PAT grew ~2.6x YoY and 7.3% QoQ to ₹ 2596 crore.
What should Investors do?

Stock has given ~4x returns over 5 years. We believe since the fin-tech story is embedded in this business, valuations should stay at premium. The digital web platform, similar to app is the new strategy in FY23. We raise PAT estimates for FY23E & FY24E by 6.2% & 10.1% respectively.

 We maintain BUY rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

The core business has got potential and is well on track to get transformed into an adaptable new age fin-tech. No plans to convert to a bank on immediate basis. However, with recent valuation reset across financials led us to revise our TP to ₹ 8500 from ₹ 9500 valuing at 7.5x FY24E ABV.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Digital transformation, client additions and ambitious targets on AUM growth (25-27% CAGR to ₹3.8 – 4 lakh crore by FY25) to boost profitability.
  • Asset quality performance continues to improve with high profits enabling provisions & w/off under check.
  • Strong deposit base and plans to raise to 25% of overall liabilities
  • RoE at >18-19% and RoA at >4% with guidance over 4.5%
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from BAF, in our BFSI coverage we also like HDFC Ltd.

  • HDFC Ltd is the largest housing finance company in India with AUM of ₹ 5.7 lakh crore. With housing demand picking up, we believe HDFC would be the largest beneficiary of the same. Merger with HDFC bank to weigh on stock.
  • We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 2840

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR
(FY22-24E)
NII (| crore) 11864 16901 17254 21884 23% 26258 33365 23%
PPP (| crore) 7681 11252 11961 14307 23% 16773 21992 24%
PAT (| crore) 3995 5264 4420 7028 21% 10176 13697 40%
ABV (|)                 313                 534                 597                 710                   838               1,127  
P/E 92 71 87 55   38 29  
P/ABV 20.4 12.0 10.7 9.0   7.6 5.7  
RoA 3.0 2.8 2.3 3.7   4.3 4.6  
RoE                22.4                20.2                12.8                17.4                  21.0                21.6  

 

Variance Table

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 6,636 6,316 4,488 47.8 6,064 9.4   Stellar growth driven by margin expansion and business traction
NIM (%) (calc) 13.2 16.4 11.5 171 bps 12.8 41 bps    
Other Income 2 3 1 62.7 4 -51.8    
                 
                 
Staff cost 1,183 1,110 617 92.0 1,020 16.0    
Other Operating Expenses 1,197 1,053 757 58.1 1,080 10.8    
Opex to NII(%) 35.9 34.2 30.6 17.2 34.6 3.5   C/I ratio to remain elevated in near term
PPP 4,257 4,156 3,116 36.6 3,967 7.3    
Provision 755 842 1,750 -56.9 702 7.6   Significant fall in credit cost led by improved asset quality
PBT 3,503 3,314 1,366 156.4 3,265 7.3    
Tax Outgo 907 845 363 149.4 846 7.2    
PAT 2,596 2,469 1,002 159.0 2,420 7.3   Healthy top line growth and fall in credit cost boosts PAT
                 
Key Metrics                
GNPA 2,539 3,258 4,737 -46.4 3,133 -19.0   NPAs below pre-covid levels
NNPA 1,017 1,381 2,307 -55.9 1,315 -22.7  
AUM 2,04,018 2,04,000 1,59,057 28.3 1,97,452 3.3   Healthy growth driven by consumer B2B and rural B2B lending segment

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA, Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.  

 

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