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Bajaj Finance Ltd>
  • CMP : 7,119.5 Chg : 226.30 (3.28%)
  • Target : 9,500.0 (31.20%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Apr 2022

Lower provisions boost PAT, in line quarter

About The Stock

Bajaj Finance is a dominant player in the consumer finance space while it has also made a foray into various lending segments wherein housing has grown to a significant size.

  • Consumer business forms ~33% of overall consolidated AUM 
  • Bajaj Finance maintained strong operating metrics over various credit and rate cycles leading to >18% RoE and >3.5% RoA consistently
Q4FY22- Healthy business momentum, improved asset quality
  • Strong NII growth at 30% YoY largely in line with estimates at ₹ 6064 crore
  • C/I steady to 34.6% vs. 34.7% QoQ as costs were controlled
  • GNPA, NNPA ratio declined to 1.60%, 0.68%, respectively, in Q4FY22
  • PAT grew 80% YoY and 14% QoQ to ₹ 2420 crore
What should Investors do?

We believe since the fin-tech story is embedded in this business, valuations should stay at premium. The digital web platform, similar to app is the new strategy in FY23. We raise PAT estimates for FY24 by 17.8%.

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

The core business has got potential and is well on track to get transformed into an adaptable new age fin-tech. No plans to convert to a bank on immediate basis. Maintain TP of ₹ 9500 by valuing at ~8.4x FY24E ABV.

Key Triggers for future price performance

Digital transformation with robust customer additions and wallets to boost profitability factoring initial cashbacks as part of opex, no impact on profit 

Asset quality performance continues to improve

RoE at ~18% and RoA at >3.5%

To seek clarification from RBI on credit cards business

New Stock Ideas

Apart from BAF, in our BFSI coverage we also like HDFC Ltd.

HDFC Ltd is the largest housing finance company in India with AUM of ₹ 5.2 lakh crore. With housing demand picking up, we believe HDFC would be the largest beneficiary of the same

We have a BUY rating on it with a target price of ₹ 3350

Key Financial Summary

| Crore FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR_(FY22-24E) F9
PPP (| crore) 11,251.6 11,960.8 14,307.2 23.0 17,461.9 22,360.2 25.0 -
PAT (| crore) 5,263.8 4,419.8 7,028.2 20.7 9,583.5 12,444.0 33.1 -
RoE 20.2 12.8 17.4 - 19.9 20.0 - -
P/E 80.9 98.4 62.2 - 45.6 35.9 - -
P/ABV 13.6 12.1 10.3 - 8.6 6.4 - -
RoA 2.8 2.4 3.8 - 4.1 4.3 - -
NII (| crore) 16,900.6 17,254.1 21,884.2 22.6 26,591.7 33,136.1 23.1 -
ABV (|) 534.1 596.9 703.8 - 843.1 1,126.3 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Results largely in line with estimates

  • Led by strong AUM growth of 29% YoY, Bajaj Finance posted stellar earnings growth with NII growing of 30% YoY and 12.5% QoQ to | 6064 crore and PAT growth of 80% YoY to | 2420 crore. Costs were under control and stable sequentially with C/I ratio at 34.6% from 34.7% QoQ. With the deep investments being committed to omni channel strategy (geo-expansion, app platform, web platform), the Company expects Opex to NII to remain elevated for FY23

 

  • Provisions for Q3FY22 declined 33% QoQ and 44% YoY to | 702 crore, mainly due to improvement in asset quality. The company currently holds management overlay provisions worth |1060 crore

 

  • Asset quality performance was healthy as GNPA and NNPA declined 13 bps and 10 bps QoQ to 1.60% and 0.68%, respectively. These key ratios are now back to pre-Covid levels. ECL provisions for stage 1 & 2 is at 1.34% and overall coverage ratio is at 2.25%

 

  • AUM growth also gained traction as it was up 9% QoQ and 29% YoY to |197500 crore, which was primarily driven by 27% YoY growth in Consumer B2C while Consumer sales finance business grew 30%, SME and Mortgage also saw steady 24% growth to |24979 crore and |61701 crore respectively. Deposit growth for Bajaj finance was up 28% YoY to |30481 crore. BHFL AUM grew by 37% to ₹ 53322 crore as of March 31, 2022

 

  • In Q4, the company added 2.21 mn new customers to its franchise. Customer franchise was at 57.57 mn as of March 31, 2022, up 19% YoY. Highest ever customer franchise addition of 9 mn in FY22. Cross sell franchise stood at 32.77 mn, a growth of 22% YoY

 

  • In Q4, cost of funds was 6.71%. Liquidity buffer stood at ~₹ 10110 crore as of March 31, 2022. Liquidity buffer has now normalised to pre-Covid levels. The management is focused on maintaining margins

 

Conference call highlights

  • The competitive intensity remained elevated across products. The company continues to protect its margin profile across businesses. Product mix would continue to remain largely steady

 

  • Phase 1 of web platform will go live by October 2022 and phase 2 by March 2023. In Q4, rewards programme has been implemented for all payment products and phase 2 is expected to deliver by Q3 FY23

 

  • Customer franchise grew 19% YoY and was at 575 lakh. The management is confident of adding 80-90 lakh new customers in FY23. The company also intends to add 140-160 lakh net new users in FY23

 

  • The company continues to invest in teams and technology for business transformation and hence the Opex to NII expected to remain elevated for FY23

 

  • Provisions were at ₹ 702 crore out of which additional charge of ₹ 100 crore was for one large B2B commercial account. Management overlay stood at ₹ 1060 crore as of March 31, 2022

 

  • GNPA includes one large B2B commercial account of ₹ 393 crore, which has moved to Stage 3 during the quarter

 

  • Liquidity buffer was at ~ ₹ 10110 crore as of March 31, 2022. Management is watchful on a Covid wave 4. If it does not come in the next six months, part of the liquidity will be released

 

  • The company has no plans to go for banking licence in the near term

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

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The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

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ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

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Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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