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  • CMP : 999.6 Chg : 1.20 (0.12%)
  • Target : 7,250.0 (25.96%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jan 2023

Sustainable performance to aid valuation...

About The Stock

Bajaj Finance, a strong NBFC with digital footprints, made a strong comeback with AUM growth reaching ~26-28% YoY. Harnessing its large franchise base digitally offers a huge opportunity. Housing forms 33% of the book.

  • Bajaj Finance maintained strong operating metrics over various credit and rate cycles leading to >18% RoE and > 4% RoA leading to 2x
Q3FY23

In line performance; long term guidance.is more encouraging.

  • AUM grew 27% YoY, NII growth at 23.8% YoY to ₹ 7433 crore, marginal uptick in cost of funds
  • GNPA, NNPA ratio declined to 1.14%, 0.41%, respectively, in Q3FY23
  • PAT grew 40% YoY, 7% QoQ to ₹ 2973 crore as expected
  • In Q3FY23, reported RoE at 24% and RoA at 5.4% (annualised)
What should Investors do?

The stock has given ~20% returns over the past two years. We believe the long range strategy to reach 4-5% of retail credit (~3.5% by FY27E) in India is believable considering the management’s proven track record on meeting guidance. Valuations is likely to stay at premium. The management reiterated that it has no plans to convert into a bank.

 

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock, offering compounding returns
Target Price and Valuation

Omnipresence strategy and organic momentum building up offers comfort on growth sustainability. We revise target price to ₹ 7250 from ₹ 8650 keeping multiple at ~5.7x FY25E ABV.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management has rolled out a five-year long range strategy (LRS), aiming for 3-4% share in total credit and 4-5% share in retail credit
  • New products entry planned in auto (including tractor financing), MFI and emerging corporate segments to aid business growth over coming years
  • Digital transformation, client additions and ambitious targets on AUM growth (25-27% CAGR) to boost profitability
  • Stable asset quality and controlled costs expected to continue
  • RoE at ~19-21% and RoA at 4-4.5%
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides Bajaj Finance, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India with a balance sheet size of ₹ 12.2 lakh crore as on December 2022
  • We have a BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 1100

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR_(FY22-25E)
NII (| crore) 16,900.6 17,254.1 21,891.8 22.7 29,138.2 35,074.4 43,712.4 25.9
PPP (| crore) 11,251.6 11,960.8 14,314.8 23.1 19,238.0 22,450.2 27,592.2 24.5
PAT (| crore) 5,263.8 4,419.8 7,035.8 20.8 11,985.0 14,190.9 17,152.6 34.6
ABV (|) 534.1 596.9 709.6 - 867.6 1,051.9 1,269.1 -
P/E 64.3 78.2 49.3 - 29.0 25.1 20.7 -
P/ABV 10.8 9.6 8.1 - 6.6 5.5 4.5 -
RoA 2.8 2.3 3.7 - 5.1 4.8 4.7 -
RoE 20.2 12.8 17.5 - 24.2 22.9 22.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
NII 7,433 7,387 6,002 23.8 6,999 6.2   Led by healthy growth in AUM and steady NIMs
Other Income 2 3 2 -33.5 2 -19.9    
                 
Staff cost 1,286 1,341 1,016 26.6 1,239 3.7    
Other Operating Expenses 1,296 1,342 1,070 21.2 1,275 1.7   Opex to NII largely steady at ~35%
Opex to NII(%) 34.7 36.3 34.7 0.0 35.9 -3.3    
PPP 4,853 4,708 3,919 23.8 4,487 8.2    
Provision 841 764 1,051 -20.0 734 14.6   Management expect loan losses & provisions at ~1.5%
PBT 4,012 3,944 2,868 39.9 3,752 6.9    
Tax Outgo 1,039 1,006 743 39.9 972 6.9    
PAT 2,973 2,938 2,125 39.9 2,781 6.9   Healthy topline and steady opex aided PAT
                 
Key Metrics                
GNPA 2,610 2,631 3,108 -16.0 2,530 3.2   GNPA and NNPA down ~3 bps QoQ to 1.14% and 0.41%, respectively
NNPA 934 1,001 1,380 -32.3 953 -2.0  
AUM 2,30,842 2,30,580 1,81,250 27.4 2,18,366 5.7   Healthy growth driven by key segments

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call Highlights

  • In fixed rate business ~50-70 bps pass through has completed. Hence, the impact of remaining transmission will be seen in coming quarters. Business linked to variable price has completely repriced
  • Bajaj Finance acquired ~41.5% stake in Snapwork Technologies with the aim to strengthen its technology roadmap. Scheduled to go digital on gold loan, LAS, used car financing and secured business in March 2023
  • Recovery commission came down as portfolio quality improved during the quarter
  • Bajaj Finance expects to deploy 450,000-500,000 merchant QRs in Q4FY23. It will add 445 new locations in the next four to five years, with 400 in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North east
  • Added 1400 employees in Q3FY23. It has hired 650 fresher engineers for FY24 and plans to add 1000 more engineers in the following year
  • The management reiterated there are no plans to convert into a bank in the near future

BHFL –

  • Q3 was a slower quarter. Approvals grew 14% while disbursements de grew 6.5%. Growth likely to come back in the next couple of quarters
  • CoF was up 49 bps to 7.12%. Due to a rise in interest rates, there was a bit of pressure in the secondary market. In the primary market there was no significant downturn

Execution plan as per Long Range Strategy (LRS) framework –

  • Launched loan against property (LAP) business for MSME customers in January 2023
  • To launch new auto loans in Q2FY24, MFI in Q4FY24 and tractor financing in Q1FY25. To launch emerging corporate business in Q3FY24
  • Open 100 locations in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North-East in FY24 and another 100 locations in FY25
  • Ambition - Market share of 3% of payments GMV, 3-4% of total credit and 4-5% of retail credit

Disclaimer

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