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  • CMP : 479.0 Chg : 1.0 (0.21%)
  • Target : 1,050.0 (9.38%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2022

Delay in price hike slows margin recovery…

About The Stock

Bajaj Electricals' business portfolio spans across consumer products (CP) and EPC (illumination, power transmission and power distribution).

  • CP (appliances, fans, lighting) contributes ~78% to topline. Its premium brands include Morphy Richards and Nirlep. The company has over 2.3 lakh retail touch points across India
  • The company has been reducing exposure in the EPC business with maximum on executing high margin business
Q4FY22 Results

High input costs pressure drags overall EBITDA margin.

  • Higher raw material costs dragged gross margins down ~309 bps YoY in Q4FY22. EBITDA margin fall was restricted to ~105 bps YoY to 4.7%, supported by savings in employee costs and other expenditure
  • Revenues were up 6% YoY (flat QoQ) to ₹ 1334 crore supported by CP segment revenue growth of ~6% YoY to ~₹ 1038 crore
  • PAT declined ~29% YoY tracking lower EBITDA margins in Q4
What should Investors do?

Bajaj Electricals’ share price has grown at a CAGR of 22.43% over the past five years (from ~₹ 349 in May 2017 to ~₹ 960 in May 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price & Valuation

We value Bajaj Electrical at ₹ 1050 using SOTP i.e.38x and 6x PE for CP and EPC respectively on FY24E EPS each

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Corporate restructuring (demerger of project business) will help Bajaj Electricals to focus on growing its core consumer product business
  • Continuous focus on driving growth through CP categories (revenue contribution increased from 42% in FY19 to 78% in FY22). Rural electrification, urbanisation and housing for all (        ~11.2 mn new houses under PMAY) are key catalysts for CP revenue growth, going forward
  • Focus to increase CP margins by 1% every year
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Polycab in the same space

  • Polycab is a leader in the wire & cable industry with organised market share of ~24%. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2850

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 6,679.4 4,987.2 4,584.6 4,813.0 0.0 5,442.0 6,152.1 0.1
EBITDA 340.1 208.3 303.2 250.2 0.0 341.3 446.3 0.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.1 4.2 6.6 5.2 - 6.3 7.3 -
PAT 153.6 -10.3 189.0 124.4 0.0 252.6 338.6 0.6
EPS (|) 15.0 -0.9 16.5 10.8 - 22.0 29.5 -
P/E(x) 64.0
Price/Book value (x) 9.3 8.1 7.0 6.4 - 6.5 5.6 -
Mcap/sales (x) 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.3 - 2.0 1.8 -
RoE (%) 14.5 -0.8 10.7 7.8 - 14.9 17.2 -
RoCE (%) 13.3 7.9 15.1 13.5 - 19.1 22.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Consolidated revenue increased 6% YoY to | 1334 crore led by CP segment revenue growth of ~6% YoY to | 1038 crore. E&P segment revenue grew albeit at slow pace of ~5% supported by faster execution of illumination orders
  • Fan and lighting segment revenues increased 22% and 32% YoY to | 419 crore and | 130 crore, respectively, supported by market share gains and launches of new products. However, appliances and Morphy Richards revenues declined ~5% and ~35% YoY to | 448 crore and | 40 crore, respectively, owing to slower volume offtake in the rural markets
  • The company has not taken any price hike in the CP segment during Q4FY22 (however overall price hike for FY22 is between 12% and 17%)
  • EBIT margin of CP business declined 250 bps YoY to 6.2%. However, project business turned into profit and reported an EBIT of | 7 crore in Q4FY22 due to focus on execution of quality orders
  • PAT declined 29% YoY to | 39 crore as it was dragged by lower other income (down 32% YoY), decline in EBITDA margin and one-time exceptional loss of | 4 crore pertaining to voluntarily retirement schemes for its Shikohabad plant

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

  • Demand Outlook:
    • The company witnessed muted rural demand in Q4FY22. In the medium term, rural demand is likely to remain muted owing to higher inflation
    • With launch of 130+ new products in the fan segment, the company has gained ~2-3% market share in this segment and expects rising demand for fans in FY23E
    • With the introduction of start rating, the leading fan players are likely to gain further market share
    • The company has healthy order book of | 964 crore comprising
      | 782 crore for transmission line towers | 22 crore for power distribution and | 160 crore for illumination projects. The company expects steady growth in the segment, going forward
    • The company is looking into product development and product portfolio expansion for Morphy Richards and expects to see growth in this segment by FY23E or FY24E
  • Margins:
    • The company expects improvement in EBITDA margin in FY23 over FY22 level supported by price hike, improved product mix and cost optimisation measures
    • The company has taken ~5% price hike in Q1FY23 to offset inflationary pressure and rising input costs and awaits industry reaction to decide on further price hikes
    • The company incurred advertisement expenses of | 28 crore (~2.7% of sales) in Q4FY22 vs. | 36 crore in Q4FY22. For FY22, advertisement expenses were at | 118 crore (~3% of sales)
  • Balance sheet
    • Improved collections led to a sharp fall in overall receivables (declined 30% YoY to | 1361 crore by the end of FY22)
    • The company repaid its borrowings to the tune of | 155 crore paired with a strong cash flow from operations of | 260 crore thereby achieving net-debt free status
    • It proposed | 3 dividend for FY22 after a gap of three years
  • Others
    • The company has completed the procedure towards purchase/acquisition of balance part of 0.37% of equity shares in acquiring Nirlep Appliances Pvt Ltd
    • The approval for Bajaj Electricals’ scheme of merger for absorption of Starlite Lighting Ltd will be done post its shareholders’ meeting on May 31, 2022. Starlite’s capacity for water heaters has been increasing
    • The company has ~ 2,30, 000 retail touchpoints. They are expected to grow in FY23E
    • Dependency on China continues to drop. More than 90% of the company’s products are made in India
Variance Analysis
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,334.3 1,326.6 1,258.5 6.0 1,319.8 1.1   Revenue growth was largely driven by consumer product segment
Other Income 21.0 15.9 30.7 -31.6 17.6 19.2    
                 
Raw Material Exp 947.2 935.3 854.5 10.9 927.8 2.1   Sharp decline in gross margin by 309 bps YoY mainly due to higher raw material costs
Employee Exp 92.2 92.9 102.5 -10.1 98.7 -6.6    
Admin & Other exp 162.8 145.9 155.3 4.8 137.9 18.0    
Erection & Subcont Exp 40.8 39.7 36.8 11.0 23.3 75.0    
                 
EBITDA 63.1 75.4 72.6 -13.1 92.1 -31.4    
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.7 5.7 5.8 -104 bps 7.0 -224 bps   Higher raw material costs was partially offset savings in employee and other costs, restricted fall in EBITDA margin by 104 bps YoY 
Depreciation 17.8 18.3 17.9 -0.2 17.3 3.0    
Interest 10.6 15.6 10.8 -1.6 16.5 -35.6    
Exceptional items 3.6 0.0 3.0   9.6     VRS at Shikohabad factory amounting to | 4 crores
PBT 52.1 57.5 71.8 -27.4 66.3 -21.4    
Total Tax 13.5 14.0 17.5 -23.2 18.2 -25.8    
PAT 38.67 43.4 54.3 -28.7 48.2 -19.7   Lower EBITDA margin and sharp decline in other income dragged PAT in Q4FY22
Key Metrics                
Consumer Product 1037.7 1021.5 975.2 6.4 1080.2 -3.9   High base and lower volume offtake in the rural markets restricted the overall growth in consumer product category. Fans and lighting segment revenue growth of ~22%, ~32% YoY respectively, was partially offset by lower revenues of appliances and Morphy Richards (declined by ~5% and ~35% YoY respectively)
 Engineering & Project        296.5         305.1        283 4.7        239.6 23.8    Revenue growth was largely driven by faster execution of illumination segment orders 

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