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Ashok Leyland Ltd>
  • CMP : 177.6 Chg : 2.95 (1.69%)
  • Target : 160.0 (23.08%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 May 2022

Infra spend; allied with CNG portfolio to benefit…

About The Stock

Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with FY22 market share at 16.4%. The company is present in M&HCV trucks and buses as well as LCV goods segments.

  • FY22 product mix – LCV goods 42%, trucks 52%, buses 6%
Q4FY22

ALL reported healthy results in Q4FY22.

  • Standalone operating income was up 58% QoQ to ₹ 8,744 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 776 crore with margins at 8.9% up 483 bps QoQ
  • Consequent PAT came in at ₹ 901.4 crore (includes exceptional gains)
  • ALL generated healthy CFO (>₹ 2,500 crore), FCF (₹> 2,000 crore) for FY22 with consequent net debt at ~₹ 720 crore
What should Investors do?

ALL’s share price has grown at ~6.2% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 91 levels in May 2017), outperforming Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY rating amid cyclical recovery under way in the CV space
Target Price Valuation

We value ALL at revised SOTP based target price of ₹ 160 (15x CV FY24E EV/EBITDA, 2x P/BV for investments; earlier TP ₹ 140).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Set to be an outsized beneficiary of impending M&HCV revival riding on government’s infra push and pickup in core industrial activity (mining, construction, road building). LCV to continue to gain from last mile mobility
  • Blended ASPs to rise amid exports push in line with global top-10 vision
  • We build 20.5% volume & 26.9% net sales CAGR over FY22-24E; margins seen rising to 8% by FY24E on the back of operating leverage benefits and normalised input cost. Return ratio is seen at ~17% levels by FY24E
  • Driving electrification under Switch Mobility with plans to raise equity capital to take care of funding requirement of this new age business
New Stock Ideas

Besides ALL, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 29,055.0 17,467.5 15,301.5 21,688.3 1.6 29,420.5 34,934.8 26.9
EBITDA 3,135.7 1,173.6 535.1 994.5 -14.7 1,765.2 2,778.7 67.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 10.8 6.7 3.5 4.6 0.0 6.0 8.0 0.0
Net Profit 1,983.2 239.5 -313.7 541.9 -15.0 604.4 1,356.9 58.2
EPS (₹) 6.8 0.8 -1.1 1.8 - 2.1 4.6 -
P/E 19.2 159.3
RoNW (%) 24.3 4.7 -4.4 0.2 - 7.9 16.2 -
RoCE (%) 25.7 4.5 -1.9 2.1 - 8.5 17.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Higher than anticipated margins…

  • Standalone operating income came in at | 8,744 crore (up 58% QoQ). Total volumes for the quarter were at 48,719 units, up 43% sequentially with ASPs for the quarter coming in at | 17.9 lakh/unit, up 10.5% QoQ
  • M&HCV volumes in the total sales volume mix (~66% in Q4FY22 vs. ~57% in Q4FY22).
  • EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 776 crore with corresponding margins at 8.9%, up 483 bps QoQ. Gross margin declined was limited to ~30 bps QoQ but operating leverage benefits lifted blended margin
  • Consequent reported PAT was at | 901.4 crore. PAT for the quarter was supported by exceptional one-time gains of | 470.3 crore. Adjusted PAT for the quarter was at | 477 crore

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Strong market share, low channel inventory, available capacity to ramp up production to act as growth triggers for FY23. The management expects domestic CV industry to post healthy growth. In Q4FY22, truck volume at ALL grew ahead of industry
  • ALL’s performance in the domestic space in Q4FY22 was healthy tracking increased market share in M&HCV segment at ~30.6% in Q4FY22 vs ~26% as at Q3FY22 (till January 28.8%) supported by: (i) healthy demand in M&HCV segment;(ii) whereas LCV suffered slightly from semiconductor shortages; (iii) shift in industry in ICV domain particularly towards CNG fuelled vehicles wherein ALL has just launched new products and is gaining good traction
  • In international operations ALL sold ~11,000 units in FY22 (up 38% YoY), after market segment witnessed good traction and grew 31% YoY
  • Truck demand is healthy and is expected to further pick up pace on the back of governments capex spends, infrastructure development along with new roads constriction to improve connectivity; scrappage policy would be another step in right direction. Average age of commercial vehicle now pegged at ~9.9 years vs. ~9.5 years in the past
  • The company launched two CNG models in 14 tons & 16 tons’ category and is witnessing good traction in market with healthy order leads and is reason for increased market share
  • Fleet utilisation levels have gone up resulting in profitable deals, E Way bill generation volumes are increasing signalling strong base for growth in coming years
  • The company remains committed towards its e-mobility division “Switch Mobility” and is ready to infuse further investment if needede
  • Company has taken price hikes in the past with recent hike amounting to ~2-2.5% in April 2022. Retention levels of recent hikes has been good wherein management explained that with the price hikes of ~2% company is able to retain ~1.6%.

  • ICV forms ~35% of overall M&HCV volumes domestically with CNG forming further ~35% of ICV.

  • Revenue mix for Q4FY22 stood at: M&HCV Trucks: 67%, buses: 2.3%, LCV: 11.2%, rest being others incl. after-market channel sales

  • Capex for FY22 was ~₹400 crores with FY23 guidance at ₹500-600 crores.

  • Company has launched is buses in European market and is applying for tenders in European as well as Indian market to operate bus on per km basis.

  • Management remained focused of making domestic business profitable with aspirations to be in top 10 global CV player.

  • Managements expects market share to sustain and grow primarily due to (i) New dealerships opened (ii) new launches planned specially in CNG side where it lacks a bit (iii) new variant of its tipper which is experiencing good demand.

  • ICRA projects M&HCV industry to grow at ~15-22% & LCV to grow at ~10% during FY22 with management focus to exceed industry growth.

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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