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Ashok Leyland Ltd>
  • CMP : 169.4 Chg : -0.35 (-0.21%)
  • Target : 185.0 (21.71%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Feb 2023

Firing on all cylinders, structural levers to aid growth…

About The Stock

Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with H1FY23 market share pegged at 17.5%. The company is present in M&HCV trucks and buses as well as LCV goods segments. It also has formidable presence in the e-mobility (Electric buses) domain though Switch Mobility

  • FY22 product mix – LCV goods 42%, trucks 52%, buses 6%
Q3FY23

ALL reported healthy performance in Q3FY23

  • Standalone operating income for Q3FY23 was up 9.2% QoQ to ₹ 9,030 crore, amidst 5% sequential growth in volumes to 47,562 units.
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 797 crore with margins at 8.8%, up 233 bps QoQ.
  • Gross margin expanded 173 bps QoQ & was further supported by positive operating leverage (employee & other expenses each down 30 bps QoQ).
  • Consequent PAT in Q3FY23 came in at ₹ 361 crore vs ₹199 crore in Q2FY23 
What should Investors do?

ALL’s share price has grown at ~4.5% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 122 levels in Feb 2018), outperforming the Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY rating driven by cyclical recovery underway in domestic CV space amidst robust capex allocation by government in budget 2023-24
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E, we value ALL at unchanged SOTP based target price of ₹185 (12x core FY24-25E avg. EV/EBITDA, 2.0x P/B for invests.)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Robust capex allocation in Union Budget 2023-24 at ~₹ 10 lakh crore (up 33% YoY), uptick in core industrial activities, high fleet utilization to aid healthy volume growth over FY22-25E (led by M&HCV space)
  • Demonstrated impressive capabilities at the Auto Expo 2023 for all powertrains, including a double-decker electric bus with agreement in place to supply hydrogen powered vehicles on pilot basis to key industrial houses.
  • We build 22% volume & 43% net sales CAGR over FY22-25E; margins seen rising to 9.5% levels by FY25E on the back of operating leverage benefits and normalized input cost. Return ration are seen at ~28% levels by FY25E
  • Equity raise and valuation pegging for its EV business i.e. Switch mobility & healthy tender wins in recent CESL tender for 2,500 buses
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides ALL, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 17,467.5 15,301.5 21,688.3 1.6 34,742.8 40,005.1 44,297.1 42.9
EBITDA 1,173.6 535.1 994.5 -14.7 2,599.9 3,604.7 4,196.8 105.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 6.7 3.5 4.6 0.0 7.5 9.0 9.5 0.0
Net Profit 239.5 -313.7 541.9 -15.0 1,139.6 1,988.5 2,449.9 112.6
EPS (₹) 0.8 -1.1 1.8 - 3.9 6.8 8.3 -
P/E 186.3
RoNW (%) 4.7 -4.4 0.2 - 14.1 22.0 23.5 -
RoCE (%) 4.5 -1.9 2.1 - 15.9 23.3 27.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results:

  • Standalone operating income came in | 9,030 crore up 9.2% QoQ. Total volumes for the quarter were at 47,562 units, up 5% sequentially.
  • ASPs for the quarter came in at | 19 lakh/unit, up 4% QoQ
  • M&HCV volumes in the total sales volume mix (~64.7% in Q3FY23 vs. ~61.5% in Q2FY23). Company further consolidated its positioning in domestic M&HCV space with market share as of Q3FY22 pegged at ~33%.
  • EBITDA for the quarter came in at | 797.3 crore with corresponding margins at 8.8%, up 233 bps QoQ. Gross margin expanded by ~173 bps QoQ & was further supported positive operating leverage.
    • Consequent reported profit after tax stood at | 361 crore.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights


  • Management informed about Q3FY23 remaining strong for company and third consecutive quarter with 30%+ market share in the truck segment with market share in this space increasing to 33% vs ~32.2% in Q2FY23 & ~25.3% on Q3FY22. Company remains confident about retaining market share amidst new launches and network expansion.
  • Management informed about better realization, improved product mix, commodity benefits & o/p leverage driving overall margins for the quarter.
  • Management informed about demand remaining strong from first time fleet buyers & large fleet operators despite moderation in fleet rate post festive season. Demand was further aided by increased infra spends by government, healthy replacement cycles of BS IV vehicles and increased industrial activity with industry volumes eventually cross FY19 peak.
  • Company’s truck volumes rose ~1.3x higher than industry volume growth, with LCV Dost and Bada Dost continuing to perform very well.
  • Debt equity at the quarter end stood at ~0.3x. Net debt stood at ~|2,043 crores as of Dec’22 end vs ~|2,677 as of Q2FY23 end.
  • Company maintained its capex guidance of ~|600 crores for FY23E with 9MFY23 capex spend at ~|320 crores. Further management informed about capex requirement for Switch Mobility (~$200-250 million) to be funded by switch only and will not have impact on company’s book. Company also informed about development expenditure for Bada Dost EV to be borne by Switch as Company & Switch have agreement in place for sharing products.
  • On EV front company’s subsidiary Switch Mobility has received ~2,100 E-Buses order in recent CESL Tender & ~500 buses from Telangana state transport corporation. Further company plans to launch Bada Dost EV by June 23 & its double decker bus in UK in CY24E.
  • LCV segment demand to be driven by boost in agricultural & allied services amidst improving last mile mobility.

    Company expects commodity prices to remain largely stable in Q4FY23.

    Company informed about moderating discounts in coming time & will continue to see net realization for company rising sequentially.

    Company has ready technology for upcoming OBD Phase II & do not expect any major pre buying from fleet aggregators.

    Company informed about focusing on (i) increasing market share; (ii) increasing exports & aftermarket share; (iii) Margin improvement.

    Aftermarket segment grew ~20% YoY (9MFY23).

    Company is working on networks expansion and financing in African markets.

    Leyland finance recently raised ~|900 crores through QIB & has enough funds to fund its growth. ALL didn’t participate in this equity raise

    Management informed about ~9 lakh government vehicles (PV+CV) falling under scrappage policy.

     

     

     

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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