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Apollo Tyres Ltd>
  • CMP : 510.1 Chg : 15.45 (3.12%)
  • Target : 390.0 (18.18%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Feb 2023

Sequential Margin recovery trend to continue…

About The Stock

Apollo Tyres (ATL) is a leading tyre manufacturer, with operations in India & Europe with an installed capacity of ~7.9 lakh MT p.a. In India, ATL has substantial presence in TBR (31% market share) & PCR space (21% market share)

  • Derives ~67% revenues from APMEA (largely India), ~32% from Europe
  • FY22 segment mix: Truck/bus ~43%, PV ~35%, OHT ~10%, others ~12%
Q3FY23

The company posted healthy operational performance

  • Total consolidated operating income was up 7.8% QoQ to ₹6,432 crores
  • EBITDA came at ₹913 crores with margins up 227 bps QoQ to 14.2%
  • Consolidated PAT stood at ₹292 crores was up 50% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin at Standalone operations stood at 12.9% (up 260 bps QoQ)
What should Investors do?

ATL’s stock price has grown ~4% CAGR over past 5 years (from ~₹ 270 levels in Feb 2018), outperforming Nifty Auto Index in that time.  

  • We retain our BUY on ATL amid consistent focus on profitability amid surging OEM demand especially in the M&HCV domain, sweating of assets, calibrated capex spends and targeted revenue of ~US$5 billion by FY26E.
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E and rolling over our valuations, we now value ATL at a revised target price of ₹390 i.e., 6x FY25E EV/EBITDA. 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We anticipate consolidated sales to increase at a CAGR of 8.4% over FY22-25E on back of CV cyclical upswing, robust PV demand (OEMs as well as replacement), network development in the domestic market and greater share of UHP tyres and market share gains in the European region.
  • With calibrated capex, debottlenecking of existing facilities & focus on sweating of assets RoE, RoCE is seen at 13%, 15% by FY25E respectively   
  • Benign commodity price, rationalization of energy prices overseas coupled with operational efficiencies we expect margins reaching 16.1% by FY25E
  • Target to achieve US$ 5 billion revenues by FY2026, EBITDA margin of >= 15%, RoCE of 12-15% and net debt to EBITDA of < 2x
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from ATL, in our auto OEM coverage, we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 16,327.0 17,344.0 20,947.6 9.7 24,348.7 25,638.5 26,705.4 8.4
EBITDA 1,915.6 2,744.5 2,574.1 6.9 3,243.7 3,972.0 4,305.7 18.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.7 15.8 12.3 - 13.3 15.5 16.1 -
Net Profit 476.4 350.2 638.6 -10.3 1,011.3 1,597.2 1,904.6 43.9
EPS (₹) 8.3 5.5 10.1 - 15.9 25.2 30.0 -
P/E 39.6 59.8 32.8 - 20.7 13.1 11.0 -
RoNW (%) 4.8 3.1 5.4 - 8.1 11.8 12.9 -
RoCE (%) 4.5 7.6 6.3 - 10.0 13.8 14.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY23 Results:

  • Among geographies, APMEA i.e., largely India revenues were flat QoQ to ₹4,292 crores while Europe grew 18.8% QoQ at ₹2,092 crores.
  • EBITDA margin stood at 14.2% up 227 bps QoQ. Gross margin expanded by 80 bps QoQ whereas other expense was down 164 bps QoQ leading to improved margins for the quarter.
  • EBITDA margins on standalone basis stood at 12.9% (up 262 bps QoQ) primarily led by gross margin expansion which was up ~300 bps QoQ.
  • Consequent consolidated PAT came in at ₹292 crores, up 50% QoQ.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During the quarter company witnessed healthy demand from OEMs however pressure came from replacement demand & European market.
  • Capacity utilization for 9MFY23 stood as: India 75%; Europe 87% vs ~76% & 89% for Indian and European operations respectively for H1FY23.
  • Company remains optimistic about demand outlook over medium to long term specially in PV & CV space in India whereas, demand in replacement segment to remain muted for coming 1-2 quarters. Further management informed about demand pressure continuing in European region amidst recessionary scenario.
  • Net debt to EBITDA stood at 1.6x as of Q3FY23 vs ~2.0x in Q2FY23 due repayment of debt. Net debt for Q3FY23 stood at ~|4,000 crores vs |4,200 crores in Q2FY23 for Indian operations &~|4,800 in Q3FY23 vs |5,500 as at Q2FY23 crores at consolidated level.
  • During the quarter company launched its first all season EV tyre in European region. In European market company witnessed market share gain as industry declined by 14% whereas company de-grew by 5%. Further company did not witness any market share loss in domestic markets.
  • Overall volume decline for Indian operations was ~4% YoY; whereas same for replacement segment was ~8% YoY. Within replacement segments Truck, PV de-grew by 8% each respectively. PCR/TBR segment de-grew ~14%/10% respectively in European region amid high channel inventory, mild winters and economic slowdown.
  • European revenue stood at ~€180 million, EBITDA stood at ~€28 million with margins at ~15.4%.
  • During the quarter company witnessed ~6% decline in commodity costs with management expecting further mid-single digit decline QoQ in Q4’23.
  • In European region company continues to focus on UHP/UUHP tyres with share of UHP tyres in PV space increasing to ~45% vs ~43% in Q3FY22.
  • Key commodity prices for Q3FY23: Natural Rubber: ₹175/kg; Carbon Black: ₹130/kg; Synthetic Rubber: ₹185/kg; Steel chords: |190/kg

    TBR utilization stood at ~80% in Q3FY23 and company has sufficient capacity in place to fulfil demand for M&HCV space for coming 2 years.

    Capex for 9MFY23E stood at ~|450 crores for Indian operations & ~€20 million for European operations incurred largely on maintenance work.

    In EU region management is continues to benefit from ban on ~10-12 mil tyre which were imported to EU from Russia.

    In the domestic market the company is normally one step ahead of peers in terms of price hike.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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