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Abbott India Ltd>
  • CMP : 25,674.5 Chg : 221.90 (0.87%)
  • Target : 20,560.0 (16.58%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 May 2022

New power-brands drive growth; legacy brands steady…

About The Stock

Abbott India is one of the fastest growing listed MNC pharma companies. It has outperformed the industry on a consistent basis in women’s health, GI, metabolic, pain, CNS among others.

  • The company’s top five brands - (Mixtard, Thyronorm, Novomix, Udiliv and Duphaston) together posted revenue CAGR of ~6.6% MAT, March 2019-22
  • Abbott has 140+ brands in segments of women’s health, gastroenterology, metabolics, CNS, multi-specialty, vaccines & consumer health
Q4FY22

Abbott India’s numbers were strong on the back of 14.2% YoY growth in top five therapies (anti-diabetic, GI, VMN, anti-infective, CNS) according to MAT March 2022, IQVIA.

  • Sales were up 15% YoY to ₹ 1255 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 294 crore, up 43% YoY with margins at 23.4%
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 211 crore (up 39% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Abbott’s share price has grown by ~2.5x over the past three years (from ~₹ 7191 in May 2022 to ~₹ 17636 levels in May 2022).

  • Maintain BUY rating due to 1) strong power brands, 2) focused approach in key growth therapies, 3) growing traction for ex-top 10 brands (up 17% YoY)
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 20560 i.e. 40x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 514

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Consistency in brand-driven growth driven by favourable market dynamics with doctor prescription stickiness and lower perceived risk factors
  • NLEM price hike of ~10.8% for estimated NLEM portfolio exposure of ~21% for Abbott may have positive impact on price led growth
  • Focus on new launches, which is fairly consistent (+100 launches and line extensions in the last 10 years)
  • Future launches from key divisions, along with brand extensions and access to innovative molecules from global parent to drive growth
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Abbott, in our healthcare coverage we like Pfizer.

  • Pfizer is following a measured approach with de-focusing and hiving off of tail brands and focusing on core strengths areas such as vaccines, pain management, VMS, GI and CVS
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 5350

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 3,678.6 4,093.1 4,310.0 4,919.3 11.1 5,509.6 6,170.7 7.8
EBITDA 604.7 756.4 921.5 1,087.7 22.3 1,260.5 1,465.9 10.5
EBITDA margins (%) 16.4 18.5 21.4 22.1 - 22.9 23.8 -
Net Profit 450.3 592.9 690.7 798.7 23.6 934.6 1,092.3 11.0
EPS (|) 211.9 279.0 325.0 375.9 - 439.8 514.0 -
PE (x) 83.2 63.2 54.3 46.9 - 40.1 34.3 -
M.Cap/ Revenues (x) 10.2 9.2 8.7 7.6 - 6.8 6.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 59.2 46.6 38.1 31.9 - 27.2 22.9 -
RoCE (%) 33.9 30.7 33.8 36.6 - 37.9 36.3 -
ROE 22.4 24.4 26.5 28.3 - 29.5 28.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Strong revenues with better margins

  • Revenues grew 15% YoY to | 1255 crore. EBITDA margins expanded 465 bps YoY to 23.4% mainly on the back of lower other expenditure. EBITDA for the quarter grew 43% YoY to | 294 crore. PAT was up 39% YoY to | 211 crore. The board of directors recommended a final dividend of | 145 per equity share and special dividend of | 130 per equity share for FY22
  • Abbott India’s numbers were strong on the back of 14.2% YoY growth in top five therapies (anti-diabetic, GI, VMN, anti-infective, CNS) according to MAT March 2022, IQVIA. Abbott closed FY22 with 14.1% growth to | 4919 crore led by contribution from, volume: 7.6%, price: 5.6% and new launches: 0.9%. Notwithstanding quarterly gyrations, we remain positive on the company due to its robust and sustainable business model backed by stable growth, debt-free b/s, favourable market dynamics with doctor prescription stickiness and lower perceived risk factors. We continue to believe in Abbott’s strong growth track in power brands and capability of new launches on a fairly consistent basis

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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