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Zydus Wellness Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,645.0 Chg : 9.80 (0.60%)
  • Target : 2,100.0 (30.27%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

01 Aug 2022

Strong recovery led by summer brands…

About The Stock

Zydus Wellness (ZWL) is one of the FMCG companies present in healthcare, nutrition & related products. The company has six brands i.e. Sugarfree, Complan, Glucon-D, Nycil, Everyuth & Nutrilite

  • It commands dominant market share in Sugar substitute (96%), Prickly heat powder (34.2%) & Glucose powder (60.4%) categories
  • The company has more than 850 distributors with direct reach of 0.6 million retail outlets. Its high gross margins at ~55% give it a leeway to spend ~13% of sales on advertisement to support new products
Q1FY23 Results

Zydus reported healthy results with 10.3% volume growth

  • Sales were up 16.6%YoY led by 10.3% volume growth & 6% price hikes
  • EBITDA was at Rs 148.1 crore, up 5.5% YoY, with margins at 21.3%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at Rs 139.9 crore, growth of 6.9%
What should Investors do?

Zydus wellness share price has given 83% return in last five years (from Rs 885 in July 2017 to Rs 1618 in July 2022)

  • We cut our FY23 & FY24E earnings estimate by 8.1% & 2.2% respectively due to high inflation in commodity prices specifically in H1FY23

We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 2100 on ascribing 30x FY24 earnings multiple

Key triggers for future price performance
  • RM inflation is likely to cool down by H2FY23, which would give leeway to spend behind brands aggressively. Likely to perk up volume growth
  • Brand extensions & new variant launches in Glucon-D, Complan, Sugarfree, Nutralite to aid revenue growth
  • Expansion in direct distribution, chemist channel sales & doctor’s advisory to play pivotal role in growing the business
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Dabur in our FMCG coverage

  • Significant shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressively foray in many big categories (edible oil, carbonated drink, household insecticides, fruit drinks) would be driving growth for Dabur
  • Value the business 52x FY24 earnings. BUY with TP of Rs 680

Key Financial Summary

Rs Crore FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17 to FY22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,763.7 1,866.7 2,009.1 36.1 2,258.3 2,494.3 - 11.4
EBITDA 318.0 344.4 344.8 28.3 408.3 492.4 - 19.5
EBITDA Margin % 18.0 18.4 17.2 - 18.1 19.7 - -
Adjusted Net Profit 182.8 250.9 308.9 23.2 366.0 451.5 - 20.9
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 31.7 39.4 48.5 28.3 57.5 71.0 - 20.9
Adjusted P/E (x) 50.8 40.9 33.2 - 28.0 22.7 - -
RoCE (%) 5.8 6.2 6.1 - 7.1 8.4 - -
RoE (%) 5.3 5.5 6.4 - 7.3 8.7 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: High Inflation delays potential volume growth trajectory; Expected cooling off inflation to drive growth from H2FY23 onwards

  • Revenue witnessed a strong recovery with 16.6% growth to | 696.8 crore led by 10.3% volume growth & 6% pricing growth. The growth was led by healthy demand of summer products (Glucon-D, Nycil). However, 3 Year CAGR sales growth was 4%(3.0-3.5% volume growth), which is below brands potential growth.
  • Glucon-D gained market share by 203 bps to 60.4% in Glucose powder category. The brand witnessed double digit growth led by demand recovery from covid-19 impacted two consecutive summers. The company launched 20-gram sachet to drive penetration. It launched new variant of ‘Kaccha Mango’ in Immunovolt.
  • Nycil saw robust double digit growth in peak summer months. Nycil is number 1 brand in prickly heat powder category & holds value market share of 34.2% & volume market share of 37.6%. The availability of the brand increased by 16.5% to 1.67 million outlets
  • Glucon-D is largely consumed from March-August & primary sales happens between Jan-June. Average household consumption of Glucon-D is 1.5 packs. However, Covid disruption resulted in reduction in penetration & the company is re-recruiting consumers through media campaigns, local activation in UP & Bihar & direct distribution enhancement. Similar strategies have been used for Nycil as well.
  • Everyuth brand witnessed strong double digit growth supported by TV & digital campaigns. Everyuth brands now holds 6.6% in overall facial cleansing segment with 41.8% market share (up 511 bps) in facial scrub and 76% market share in peel-off category. The availability of the brand increased to 6.8 lakh outlets against 6.0 lakh last year
  • In Skincare category, the company is looking to develop categories of peel offs & scrubs. Though, there are many other sub-categories but potential & size of these is very small.
  • This was relatively soft quarter for Sugarfree brand given base quarter witnessed robust growth due to high diabetic consumption during Covid-19 second wave. The brand holds market share of 95.5% in artificial sweetener category & the company is promoting stevia based sugarfree green variants. Sugar-free distribution network reached to 4.97 lakh outlets
  • Nutralite saw strong growth on low base quarter. The company has been focusing on spreads & milk products. Nutralite Dhoodhshakti ghee has been expanded in institutional channels.
  • In HFD (health food drink) category, Complan holds market share of 4.8% (lost market share by ~80 bps). The category growth has been laggard in last few years due to down trading to LUPs (Low unit packs) & lower priced pouch. Though, the company is holding its market share in large packs & kid’s category, it has been slow in response in LUPs & low price point pack (it’s a low margin SKUs) due to competition cutting down the prices. The sachets have not been able to drive the consumption yet. There is possibility of cannibalisation from last packs. The company is looking to hold market share in MFD.
  • International business has been extended to Hong Kong, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Muscat, Ethiopia and Australia in FY22 & it has launched new extensions to Sugar free - Sugar Free D’lite Cookies and Sugar Free D’lite Chocolate spread - in international markets during FY22. Sugar-free franchise & Complan constitutes 93% of total business. Top five markets constitute 80% of the sales. The company is targeting 8-10% revenue contribution from international territories
  • Milk, refined palm oil, Aspartame prices have been up by 20%, 25% & 55% in last one year. Simultaneously diesel prices have also been high, which is adversely impacting overhead spends for the company. Volume growth has also been impacted by inflation specifically in rural regions. The company has taken calibrated price increase, build up RM inventory at right time & infuse cost reduction programmes to fight inflationary pressure. 
  • With the continued upsurge in major commodities like milk, crude based packaging costs, gross margins contracted by 112 bps during the quarter. Though, palm oil prices have witnessed softening in last one months, we believe the benefit of that would be reflected in coming quarters only. The company increased its ad-spend by 221 bps in order to spend behind summer brands in the season. Employee & overhead spends were lower by 72 bps & 38 bps respectively.
  • The contraction in gross margins & high advertisement spend resulted in operating profit growing at a slower pace of 5.5% to Rs 148.1 crore. Operating margins contracted by 224 bps to 21.3%. Net profit also grew at a slower pace of 4.7% to Rs 137 crore in line with operating profit growth.
  • Consumer demand has been a challenge due to inflation & will continue to remain a challenge for one more quarter. Rural growth has been reasonable due to larger presence of Glucon-D & Nycil. However, with the expected cooling down by inflation, demand is likely to come back in few quarters
  • The category size of HFD is Rs 6750 crore, Glucose powder category size is |900 crore & sugar substitute category is Rs 325 crore (Nielsen is revaluating category sizes). The opportunity size of all of existing category in large & the company is looking to increase existing brands. Hence, large acquisition is not required but the company is now only looking for bolt-on acquisition to fill the gap in product portfolio or geographies
  • In terms of channels, Modern trade & Ecom contribution to sales increased from 14% in FY21 to 18% in FY22 & it has the potential to reach 25% in net few years. E-Com contribution specifically has reached to 6.5% as against 5.9% last year. The company has a direct reach of 6 lakh outlets & it is planning to increase it to 1.0 million stores in next three years

Zydus wellness was adversely impacted by Covid-19 in last two years given summer months constitutes major sales. The strong growth in Q1 reflecting recovering to the pre-covid levels however, on a 3-year cagr basis, the sales growth is still below par at 4%. Simultaneously, high inflation in milk, palm oil & crude based packaging costs resulted in contraction in gross as well as operating margins. We believe high inflation has also impacted demand given most of the brands are niche & discretionary in nature. We believe softening of commodity inflation would recover margins & perk up volumes in next few quarters. We believe efforts towards launching new variants in most of the brands, building direct distribution network & leveraging E-Com & Modern trade channel would result in stronger volume growth from H2FY23 onwards. The stock is trading at significant discount to its FMCG peers. We maintain our Buy recommendation of the stock with the revised target price of Rs 2100 / share (earlier: Rs 2200/share)

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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