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Zydus Wellness Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,671.0 Chg : 5.10 (0.31%)
  • Target : 1,690.0 (14.04%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 May 2023

Market share loss in MFD is drag on volumes…

About The Stock

Zydus Wellness (ZWL) is one of the FMCG companies present in healthcare, nutrition & related products. The company has six brands i.e. Sugarfree, Complan, Glucon-D, Nycil, Everyuth & Nutrilite

  • It commands dominant market share in Sugar substitute (95.8%), Prickly heat powder (35.1%) & Glucose powder (59.9%) categories
  • The company has more than 850 distributors with direct reach of 0.6 million retail outlets. Its high gross margins at ~55% give it a leeway to spend 12-13% of sales on advertisement to support new products
Q4FY23 Results

Zydus saw sales growth of 11.4% led by 7.8% pricing growth

  • Volume growth was 3.5% in Q4; FY23 volume growth was 4.8%
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 144.6 crore, up 2.2% YoY, with margins at 20.3%
  • Consequent adjusted PAT was at ₹ 145.3 cror
What should Investors do?

Zydus wellness underperformed FMCG index with 15% return in last five years (from ₹ 1282 in May 2018 to ₹ 1482 in May 2023)

  • Low volume growth along with market share loss in some of the key categories is a concern
  • We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1690 on ascribing 25x FY25 earnings multiple

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With the softening of crude            , aspartame, palm oil prices & price hikes taken in last one-year, gross margins to inch up to 280 bps in next two years. However, milk prices continue to remain at an elevated level
  • Though, the company is gaining market share in Prickly heat powder & Glucose powder category, it is losing market share in MFD (Complan) category, which is drag on growth
  • Zydus would be expanding overall distribution network to 3 million retail outlets. Distribution expansion along with innovation is key for successful execution
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata consumer in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in the Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 980 with a BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 1,763.7 1,866.7 2,009.1 2,254.8 0.3 2,473.3 2,725.8 0.1
EBITDA 318.0 344.4 344.8 337.2 0.2 429.5 484.3 0.2
EBITDA Margin % 18.0 18.4 17.2 15.0 - 17.4 17.8 -
Adjusted Net Profit 182.8 250.9 308.9 320.4 0.2 384.3 439.1 0.2
Adjusted EPS (|) 31.7 39.4 48.5 50.4 0.2 60.4 69.0 0.2
Adjusted P/E (x) 46.7 37.6 30.5 29.4 - 24.5 21.5 -
RoCE (%) 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.7 - 6.8 7.4 -
RoE (%) 5.3 5.5 6.4 6.3 - 7.0 7.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY23 Results: Softening of commodity prices & price hike to help in restoring margins; Low volume growth is concern

  • Net sales witnessed a growth of 11.8% to | 713 crore led by 4% volume growth & 7.8% pricing growth. Full year volume growth was 4.8% High inflation in milk resulted in strong pricing growth for the company during the quarter however it is continuing to impact volume growth of Malt based beverage brand ‘Complan’

 

  • With price hikes in earlier quarters & improved product mix, the company was able to maintain its gross margins at 50.8% (3 bps lower). Employee & Marketing spends were lower by 16 bps & 79 bps respectively.

 

  • Overhead spends were higher by 275 bps mainly on account of higher third-party manufacturing outsourcing for Glucon-D, wage hike in north eastern states (manufacturing facilities are located) & high fuel inflation. The high spends of ~ |14 crore is one-off because of above mentioned reasons

 

  • High overhead spends resulted in operating profit growth of mere 2.2% to |144.6 crore with operating margin contraction of 184 bps to 20.3%. Interest cost was lower by 13.7% to |5.2 crore. Net profit witnessed a growth of 9% to |145.3 crore mainly on account of tax reversal of | 19 crore  

 

  • Glucon-D witnessed good traction in summer months despite adverse weather for some of the days in March. It launched Mango variant in Glucose Powder category in Q4. Glucose powder category has grown by 10.7% & Glucon-D gained market share by 159 bps to 60.1%

 

  • MFD category de-grew by 1.1% & Complan lost market share by 50 bps to 4.5%. The category has seen shift from bigger packs to sachets, which has led to wider penetration for the category & the brand. The company ran media campaign & highlighted highest protein proposition & nutritional differentiation of the brand

 

  • Sugarfree brand grown in mid-single digit during the quarter. The company is driving growth in Sugar free green franchise. It maintained market share of 96%

 

  • In personal care category, Facial scrub category has grown at 9.1% & the company gained market share by 68 bps to 41.9%. Peel-off category has seen growth of 4.5% & the company gained market share by 7 bps to 78.4%. The company lost market share by 30 bps in face cleansing category given face wash & face mask sub category has grown at faster pace

 

  • Pricky heat powder category has grown at 13.4% mainly led by strong traction before summer season. The company also gained market share in this category by 157 bps to 35.4%

 

  • Nutralite brand witnessed strong growth during the quarter. The company is running print & digital media campaigns for dairy products under Nutralite Doodhshakti brand

 

  • International business contributes 7-8% of the overall business. The company has presence in 25 countries with top 5 countries contribute 2/3rd of business. Sugarfree & Complan contribute ~90% of international business. In FY23, this business witnessed flat growth due to supply issue in New-Zeeland & local economic issues in Nigeria

 

  • Everyuth has grown in double digit growth over the years except for disruptive years like Covid. With foray in face cleaning & body lotions, the brand has potential to grow in double digit in future

 

  • Ecommerce & Modern trade channel sales contributes was19.6% in FY23 compared to 17.5% in FY22. These channels can contribute 25% to the sales in next few years. Ecommerce is contribution is 7% compare to 6% in previous years
  • The company would be increasing its direct reach from current 0.6 million outlets to 0.7 million outlets. It is also planning to increase its overall availability from current 2.5 million outlets to 3.0 million outlets

 

  • Milk prices have been higher by 21% in last one year whereas refined palm oil & Aspartame prices have come down by 31% & 15% in last one year respectively. The company would take selective price increase & some cost controls to reach to the gross margins of FY21 levels

 

  • With expectation of gross margin recovery, the company would take the advertisement spends to 12.5% to 13% of the sales.

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 

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