loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Zensar Technologies Ltd>
  • CMP : 602.7 Chg : -26.65 (-4.23%)
  • Target : 235.0 (1.29%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Margin expansion takes front seat; growth recovery to take time

About The Stock

Zensar Technologies (Zensar) offers application & IMS services to hi-tech, manufacturing, retail and BFSI.

  • Zensar has grown organically and inorganically over the years
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 19%)
Q3FY23 Result

Zensar reported weak numbers for Q3FY23.

  • Revenue declined 5.3% QoQ in CC terms while dollar revenue fell 5.9% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins improved ~280 bps QoQ to 11.3%
  • Reported TCV of US$130.5 million, down 8% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Zensar’s share price has grown by ~1.2x over the past five years (from ~₹ 188 in January 2018 to ~₹ 232 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Zensar at ₹ 235 i.e. 13x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Management change is likely to bring in new initiatives to drive growth, which has been a pain point from last few quarters
  • Moderation of subcontractor costs, which is expected to be one of the levers for margin expansion apart from pricing, utilisation improvement, more offshoring, etc
  • Expect revenue growth at CAGR of 6.8% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Zensar, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,920

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 4,181.7 3,781.4 4,243.8 6.8 4,805.7 4,810.3 5,169.3 6.8
EBITDA 507.1 684.8 656.5 11.2 509.4 601.3 734.0 3.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 18.1 15.5 - 10.6 12.5 14.2 -
Reported PAT 263.4 300.0 416.1 12.1 232.4 311.7 406.3 -0.8
EPS (|) 11.5 13.2 18.3 - 10.3 13.8 17.9 -
P/E 20.1 17.6 12.7 - 22.6 16.9 12.9 -
ROE (%) 12.6 12.8 15.5 - 8.1 10.1 12.0 -
ROCE (%) 12.5 18.9 15.5 - 10.1 12.1 14.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue during the quarter declined steeply. It reported revenue of US$145.9 mn, down 5.9% QoQ while in CC terms the decline was 5.3%. In rupee terms, the company reported revenue of | 1,197.6 crore, down 3% QoQ. The company indicated that the revenue for the quarter was impacted by the higher than usual furloughs in Q3 and the continuance of macro environment headwinds on the key verticals of the company
  • In CC terms, geography wise, US region (70% of the mix) declined 8% QoQ while Europe region reported muted growth of 2.2% QoQ. Africa region revenue was flat sequentially
  • Vertical wise, in CC terms all verticals barring banking & emerging declined sequentially. Banking & emerging reported growth of 7.4% & 23.9%, respectively, while hi-tech, manufacturing, consumer service & insurance declined 4.9%, 7%, 2.3% & 10.3%, respectively
  • The new CEO has indicated that margin expansion is the key focus area for the near term as it is not looking to buy business impacting margin performance. The strategy led by earlier CEO will continue for a time being in terms of continued investment in services lines till longer term strategy being worked out and it is likely to come up with the same in Q4
  • The company indicated that growth in Europe was due to the strong relationship maintained by the company but it also indicated that it was witnessing some softness in demand in digital spending in the Europe due to delayed decision making. In Africa region the company indicated that growth in banking vertical was offset by the decline in Insurance. The company, however, expects this to improve as certain key clients are expected to ramp up the projects in upcoming quarters
  • The company indicated that the Hi-Tech, Manufacturing & Emerging vertical was impacted by higher than expected furloughs, continuance of the deteriorating macros impacting the discretionary spend of clients & planned reduction of pass through revenues. In insurance vertical the company indicated that the revenue was impacted due to delayed decision making & deferral of milestone of a large client. It will take some time to recover on this
  • EBITDA margins of the company improved 280 bps QoQ to 11.3%, aided by tailwinds of operational efficiency due to optimisation of employee cost by fresher deployment, improved offshoring, better realisations & SG&A rationalisation; currency benefits & one-time gain on reversal of bad debts (~+50 bps) mitigated by the headwinds of lower volumes & utilisations due to furloughs and lower pass-through revenue. The company indicated that it is looking to take margins around mid-teen range in three to four quarters from now. It mentioned that pricing is not conducive in this environment
  • The company’s LTM attrition declined 350 bps QoQ to 22.8% in Q3 & declined by 530 bps from the peak of 28.1%. The company indicated that it expects attrition to moderate further as supply side pressure eases out. The company’s net employees during the quarter declined by 405 taking the total employee strength to 10,845. The technical employees of the company declined by 421 to 9,857 during the quarter Utilisation of the company declined 310 bps QoQ to 77.6% while offshore mix improved 180 bps QoQ to 44.7%
  • The company during the quarter won TCV of US$130.5, down by 8% QoQ and indicated that 35% of TCV was from net new deals won during the quarter. The revenue from top five, 10, 20 declined 13.2%, 7.5%, 4.9%, respectively
  • On the demand front the company indicated that the macro environment still remains challenging. The company had earlier indicated that it was witnessing softness in the verticals of Hi-Tech, Manufacturing & Consumer services now it is witnessing some softness in the Insurance vertical as well due to delayed decision making by clients. The company further indicated that it expects the consumer services vertical to remain under pressure due to recessionary environment but it optimistic of gradual recovery in Hi-Tech & manufacturing vertical. The company further indicated that it is focusing on the revenue growth of the company but indicated that growth would be gradual process
  • The company indicated that it has enough cash balances on its books (US$179.4 mn) and is looking for M&A opportunity to accelerate the growth of the company
  • The company appointed Manish Tandon as CEO & MD of the company for five years from January 2023. Mr   Tandon has over 27 years of industry experience and last served as CEO of CSS Corp, a technology services company in US and prior to that he worked with Infosys for 20 years
  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 1.5 per share

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More