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Zensar Technologies Ltd>
  • CMP : 609.9 Chg : -19.45 (-3.09%)
  • Target : 225.0 (3.69%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

23 Oct 2022

Macro concerns pushing revenue recovery…

About The Stock

Zensar Technologies (Zensar) offers application & IMS services to hi-tech, manufacturing, retail and BFSI.

  • Zensar has grown organically and inorganically over the years
  • Net debt free and healthy double digit return ratio (with RoCE of 19%)
Q2FY23 Results:

Zensar reported weak numbers for Q2FY23.

  • Revenue grew 1.6% QoQ in CC terms while dollar revenue fell 0.6% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins declined ~280 bps QoQ to 8.5%
  • Digital revenues declined 1.6% QoQ
What should Investors do?

Zensar’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 149 in October 2017 to ~₹ 217 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Zensar at ₹ 225 i.e. 12x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Addressing supply side challenges, which are impacting its growth by continuous compensation interventions
  • Moderation of subcontractor costs, which is expected to be one of the levers for margin expansion apart from pricing, utilisation improvement, more offshoring, etc
  • Expect revenue growth at CAGR of 7.8% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Zensar, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,370

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 4,181.7 3,781.4 4,243.8 6.8 4,818.8 5,059.8 5,312.8 7.8
EBITDA 507.1 684.8 656.5 11.2 578.3 718.5 754.4 4.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 18.1 15.5 - 12.0 14.2 14.2 -
Reported PAT 263.4 300.0 416.1 12.1 282.7 394.9 421.1 0.4
EPS (|) 11.5 13.2 18.3 - 12.4 17.3 18.5 -
P/E 18.8 16.5 11.9 - 17.5 12.5 11.7 -
ROE (%) 12.6 12.8 15.5 - 9.8 12.4 12.1 -
ROCE (%) 12.5 18.9 15.5 - 12.1 15.1 14.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of US$155 mn, down 0.5% QoQ in dollar terms while it was up 1.6% QoQ in CC terms. In rupee terms, revenue grew 2.6% QoQ to | 1,234.6 crore. Digital services revenue continued to decline for a second successive quarter, reporting a decline of 1.6% QoQ
  • Geography wise, US region (71.6% of the mix) grew by 0.4% QoQ while Africa & Europe regions declined by 0.6% & 4.4% QoQ respectively
  • Vertical wise, in CC terms, banking, insurance & emerging posted revenue growth of 8.3%, 3.9% & 28.9% QoQ, respectively, while hi-tech, manufacturing & consumer services declined 5.5%, 4.7% & 2.5%, respectively
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter declined ~280 bps QoQ to 8.5%. The company indicated that the margins declined due to the following factors:

i)                Cost of delivery: The company indicated that the increased cost of delivery impacted margins by ~70 bps. Zensar mentioned that increased cost of delivery was due to the wage hike rolled out by the company

ii)               Lower utilisation & forex impact: The company indicated that lower utilisation & currency depreciation impacted margins of the company by ~50 bps

iii)              SG&A expenses: The company indicated higher SG&A expenses led by elevated hiring expense impacted margins with a net effect of 160 bps

  • The company indicated in Q1 the demand scenario is expected to remain challenging for the next three to four quarters, especially in hi-tech, manufacturing and retail sectors (59% of mix) due to macro challenges impacting this sectors. Zensar continued to face challenges in this part of their portfolio. The company indicated that they are still few quarters away from recovery in this verticals but secular long term demand is not diminishing. It expects furlough to be normal in Q3 and no incremental impact is visible due to furlough as of now. It also indicated that there is margin pressure across Fortune 500 companies, which is reflecting in slower decision making
  • The company indicated that BFSI continues to perform well for them and growth is expected to be strong, going forward, due to addition of marquee clients as well as scaling up existing accounts. There are some challenges in BFSI space but Zensar is confident of navigating the same. The company will continue to invest in talent and capability enhancement. Recently acquired M3Bi is also integrating well and also driving the growth in this vertical. Zensar expects strong growth momentum not only for short term but even for long term to be strong in this vertical
  • Insurance vertical is also doing well for the company. Zensar said it has a specialisation in the primary software used in P&C solutions in the verticals. The company indicated that clients in this vertical are optimising budgets and incremental opportunity is coming from cost optimisation programs. Zensar mentioned that it is looking to capitalise on both legs of future growth in this vertical i.e. revenue maximisation and cost optimisation. The company also mentioned that earlier they were focusing on project based revenues in this vertical. Hence, nature of revenues was lumpy, which it is trying to address now by shifting to more annuity revenues. Zensar also indicated that it has wins in some new areas and is geared up for strong growth, going ahead

 

 

  • The company indicated that it is bottomed out as far as margin is concerned. The margin for the quarter was impacted by wage hike. Zensar indicated that wage hike given by it this year is probably the highest in last 10 years. There was an impact of 320 bps due to wage hike in this year vs. 250 bps last year. The company indicated that higher attrition was also one of the factors for higher wage hike
  • The company maintained guidance of mid teen margin guidance in Q2FY24. Zensar indicated following margin levers, going forward:

a)      Attrition: The company expects attrition to stabilise, going forward, which will lead to margin improvement

b)     Fresher hiring & utilisation: The company indicated that it had revamped its fresher hiring program in FY22 and continued the same in FY23 to address its supply side challenges. Zensar indicated that it hired ~1600 freshers in FY22 & 450 freshers in H1FY23 and will continue to hire freshers to reduce its dependency on lateral hiring for pyramid optimisation. Zensar indicated that as the freshers are trained & deployed the utilisation will improve

c)      Sub-contractor cost: The sub-contractor cost for the quarter declined 220 bps QoQ to 14.3%. The company expects further moderation, going forward, which will lead to margin improvement

d)     Price revision: Zensar indicated that it is in continuous discussions with its clients for price hike due to elevated employee cost pressure

e)     Offshore mix: The company indicated that it continues to pursue its strategy to push for more off shore business mix to improve its margin

  • The company’s LTM attrition declined 180 bps QoQ to 26.3%. The company indicated that it expects attrition to moderate, going forward. Zensar added 1,294 employees during the quarter but the total headcount of the company declined 309 to 11,250
  • The company TCV wins remains strong with a TCV of US$141.8 mn during the quarter, up 13.4% QoQ. The company’s revenue from its top five, top 10 & top 20 clients reported grew 3.3%, 0.1 & -1.4%, respectively
  • The company said the South Africa region continue to do well for them as there is continuous thrust on cloud transformation and data analytics spend across clients in BFSI and retail space. The company is also winning deals in Europe despite a challenging environment. In the US, traction is better in BFSI vertical but consumer sector is facing pressure
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,234.6 1,050.6 17.5 1,203.4 2.6 1.6% CC growth impaced by continued weakness in Hi-Tech, Manufacturing and Retail vertical 
Employee expense 922 729 26.4 883 4.4  
             
Gross Margin 313 321 -2.7 321 -2.4  
Gross margin (%) 25.3 30.6 -526 bps 26.6 -130 bps  
other expense 207 160 29.5 184 12.5  
             
EBITDA 105 161 -34.6 136 -22.6  
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5 15.3 -681 bps 11.3 -277 bps Margins declined due to wage hike
Depreciation & amortisation 49 47 5.1 49 0.4  
EBIT 56 114 -50.9 87 -35.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 4.6 10.9 -634 bps 7.2 -269 bps  
Other income (less interest) 21 14 47.2 15 40.3  
PBT 77 129 -40.0 102 -24.4  
Tax paid 20 33 -38.1 27 -24.5  
PAT 57 96 -40.7 75 -24.4  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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Pankaj Pandey

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

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Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) orsecurities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this reporthave not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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