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  • CMP : 92.6 Chg : -0.14 (-0.15%)
  • Target : 300.0 (23.97%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 Aug 2022

About The Stock

Zee Entertainment (Zee) is one of the largest listed media companies in India, which owns and operates a bouquet of 49 TV channels across 11 languages and also an OTT app Zee5.

  • The company’s TV network viewership share was at 16.1% in Q1FY23 (17.1% in Q4FY22), due to pull-out of Zee Anmol from free to air (FTA)
Q1FY23 Results

Zee reported a weak Q1FY23 performance.

  •  Revenues at ₹ 1,845.7 crore, up 5% YoY, with domestic ad growth of ~6% YoY. Overall subscription revenues declined 5% YoY to ₹ 772 crore, largely owing to ~7% decline in domestic subscription owing to pricing embargo impacting TV subscription growth along with some impact by timing of some B2B deals and renewals
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 236 crore, down 31.5% YoY with margins at 12.8% (down 661 bps QoQ), due to lower revenues and higher marketing cost on a YoY basis, on account of new launches in linear business and continued investments in ZEE5
  • The company reported PAT of ₹ 106.6 crore, down 50% YoY
What should Investors do?

Zee’s share price has declined ~53% over the past five years, owing to promoter debt issue and business challenges.

  • We marginally cut our earnings estimates and target price but maintain BUY. Strong ad recovery from H2 and likely merger consummation with no visible impediment, remain key triggers
Target Price and Valuation

We value Zee at ₹ 300, at 20x FY24 P/E

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Overall viewership share improvement, which remains sub-optimal. Turnaround in some key regional markets like Tamil/Marathi as well as Hindi GEC, where it has lost viewership market share. This would also drive recovery in margin performance and cash flow generation
  • Consummation of merger with Sony
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Zee, we like Inox Leisure in the media space.

  • A play on recovery and consolidation of multiplexes
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 720

Key Financial Summary

(Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR FY17-22 FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR FY22-24E
Net Sales (| crore) 7,933.9 8,129.9 7,729.9 8,189.3 4.9 8,581.0 9,520.8 7.8
EBITDA (| crore) 2,567.6 1,634.6 1,790.1 1,722.1 -2.2 1,665.9 2,142.2 11.5
Net Profit (| crore) 1,545.8 526.5 800.1 964.6 - 1,083.9 1,442.0 -
Adjusted Nat Profit (| crore) 1,573.4 1,661.5 984.9 1,054.6 -3.9 1,083.9 1,442.0 16.9
EPS (|) 16.1 5.5 8.3 10.0 - 11.3 15.0 -
P/E (x) 15.0 44.1 29.0 24.1 - 21.4 16.1 -
Price / Book (x) 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 - 2.0 1.9 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 13.6 11.9 12.7 - 12.7 9.8 -
RoE (%) 15.7 16.7 9.4 9.7 - 9.5 11.6 -
RoCE (%) 25.7 13.9 13.7 14.6 - 13.0 15.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Ad growth faces lower FMCG spends challenges

The company indicated that the quarter’s dual pressure of viewership softness (due to exit from FTA and lower time spent per viewers) and input price pressure restricting the FMCG ad spend. Consequently, domestic ad growth was muted, up 5.9% YoY. The company’s TV network viewership share at 16.1% was lower than 17.1% in Q4FY22 due to exit of Zee Anmol from FTA. The company indicated that adjusted for FTA exit impact, viewership share was better QoQ. Despite near term headwinds, it expects QoQ improvement from Q2FY23 with major ad recovery from Q3FY223 led by festive season. It expects to be in line or slightly better than the overall market. We bake in ~10.9% CAGR in ad revenues in FY22-24E, with growth being back ended. The company indicated that 7% YoY decline in domestic subscription was owing to viewership softness, pricing embargo impacting TV subscription growth along with some impact by timing of some B2B deals and renewals. We highlight that Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) had extended NTO 2 implementation to November, 2022. While the company expects subscription growth to face near term disruption on NTO 2.0 implementation pushback, it expects the industry to revert back once this uncertainty is over. We bake in modest subscription CAGR of ~5% in FY22-24E with tailwinds largely from Zee5.

Healthy QoQ growth for Zee5; content spending to remain high

Zee5’s revenues were at | 159.7 crore during the quarter, growth of 43% YoY, driven by strong content slate addition. Zee5 reported operating losses of | 235.2 crore vs. losses of | 203.3 crore in Q4. Zee5 recorded a global DAU of 11.3 million and 103.3 million global MAU in June vs. Q4 numbers of 10.5 million and 104.8 million, respectively. ZEE5 saw the launch of 38 new shows and movies in Q1FY23, including eight originals. The company indicated that investment in content (on both OTT and linear TV), marketing, technology and product will continue to capture viewership and engagement share despite the near-term revenue headwinds on the ad revenue front. Furthermore, it reiterated its aim to expand movie production with a strong slate of movies across Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Marathi and Punjabi languages. We note that the company has indicated that FY23 would be the peak year of investments for Zee5. The company has also raised the annual subscription pricing by ~40% for Zee5 since March, 2022, which should drive subscription revenue growth ahead.

Other highlights

  • Progress on merger with SPNI: The company has received approval from stock exchanges. Zee filed the scheme of arrangement for the merger with CCI in April. Post that, it will seek NCLT approval once the CCI approvals are in place. However, we believe a couple of months of delay could be seen given the already slow process, so far
  • One off items, dues from related parties: One off included | 15 crore DSRA related additional liability pertaining to Siti Networks. Receivables from Dish have come down from | 580 crore as of FY20 and | 240 crore as of FY22 to | 190 crore in Q1FY23. On Siti, revenues recognition is on actual collection basis. Receivables of | 35.2 crore from Siti are delayed, of which | 15.5 crore has been deposited against court order
  • Other:
    • Increase in marketing cost on a YoY basis is on account of new launches in linear business and continued investments in ZEE5
    • Cash and treasury investment was at | 1130 crore

The rebound in market share in Hindi GEC and Marathi/Tamil will be key to overall market share and ad recovery. We marginally cut our earnings estimates and target price but maintain BUY rating. Strong ad recovery from H2 and likely merger consummation with no visible impediment, remain key triggers. We value the stock at 20x FY24E P/E with a target price of | 300/share

Disclaimer

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Pankaj Pandey

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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