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  • CMP : 264.1 Chg : 2.95 (1.13%)
  • Target : 460.0 (11.11%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Jul 2022

Margin weak; recovery in subsequent quarters

About The Stock

Wipro is an IT, consulting & BPO player catering to BFSI, health, consumer, energy & utility, technology and communication.

  • With over 230000 employees, it serves clients across six continents
  • Consistent payout (~70%), healthy OCF to EBITDA ratio of ~89%
Q1FY23 Results

Wipro reported weak margin in Q1

  • Revenue growth of 2.1% QoQ in CC terms, 0.5%QoQ in dollar term
  • EBIT margins were down 200 bps QoQ to 15%
  • Closed 18 large deals, TCV of US$1.1 billion (bn) in the quarter
What should Investors do?

Wipro’s share price has grown by ~2x over the past five years (from ~₹ 202 in July 2017 to ~₹ 414 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Wipro at ₹ 460 i.e. 17x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The strategy of the new CEO to drive a turnaround in the company

 

  • Continued strong momentum in large deals, it closed 18 large deals in Q1 worth US$1.1bn

 

  • Higher penetration in Europe, client mining, acquisition of new logos and traction digital revenues to further boost revenue growth
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Wipro, in our IT coverage we also like TCS.

  • Strong organic growth, consistent financials, industry leading margins and healthy capital allocation policy prompt us to be positive on the stock
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3,785

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 58,051.6 61,340.1 62,234.4 79,753.0 7.7 90,308.0 99,690.9 11.8
EBITDA 11,937.7 12,658.9 15,062.5 17,774.1 9.2 17,756.6 20,563.4 7.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.6 20.6 24.2 22.3 - 19.7 20.6 -
Net Profit 9,003.1 9,721.8 10,786.5 12,873.5 8.7 12,771.3 14,856.0 7.4
EPS (|) 14.9 16.6 19.1 22.3 - 23.3 27.1 -
P/E 27.7 24.9 21.7 17.6 - 17.8 15.3 -
RoNW (%) 15.8 17.4 19.5 19.6 - 18.7 20.8 -
RoCE (%) 17.8 19.3 21.2 18.8 - 18.9 21.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • In constant currency, IT services business reported revenue growth of 0.5% QoQ to US$2735.5 million (mn) while CC growth was at 2.1% for the quarter. Rupee revenues grew 3% QoQ to | 21,285 crore. IT products business reported grew by 62.3% QoQ to | 194.6 crore.
  • The growth in revenues in CC was led by communications (up 9.2% QoQ), consumer business unit (up 5% QoQ) and BFSI (up 2.4%) while manufacturing (down 1.5% QoQ), health (up 0.5% QoQ), technology (up 0.8%) and energy (down 1% QoQ) were laggards. In terms of geographies, CC growth was led by America, which grew 2.6%, followed by Europe up by 2.3% QoQ while APMEA grew by 2.2% QoQ
  • Wipro reported 200 bps QoQ decline in IT services EBIT margins to 15%. The decline was led by 130 bps impact due to drop in utilization, higher sub-contractors cost & internal investment while 20bps was impacted due to Rizing acquisition. The company indicated that margins are bottomed out in Q1 and are expected to recover from Q2 onwards despite wage hike cycle kicking in Q2.
  • The company has indicated following levers to improve its EBIT margin going forward: a) improving its utilization levels, b) sub-contractor cost moderation, c) pyramid optimization by fresher hiring, d) better pricing led by its recent acquisition’s synergies, e) attrition moderation f) operational efficiency
  • The company has hired aggressively compared to its peers as it added 15,446 net employees including 10,000+ freshers, taking its headcount to 258,574. The company has indicated to double its intake of freshers in FY23 compared to addition in FY22. Gross utilization was 72.7%, a drop of 310 bps QoQ. Net utilisation dipped 140 bps QoQ to 83.8%. The utilization had dropped due to ramp up in fresher hiring in the last few quarters & it is expected to improve from Q2 onwards. LTM attrition dropped marginally by 50 bps QoQ to 23.3% for the quarter & the company expects further moderation in the coming quarters
  • The company indicated that demand environment continue to strong as the clients continue to spend on new technologies like AI/ML. Cloud, cybersecurity etc. and almost 60% of the deal signed in Q1FY23 has been towards these areas of spending.  Order intake has been strong across geographies as order book for America/Europe/AMEA region grew by 30%/40%/60% YoY. The company also indicated that despite its business mix is now changing towards consulting due to capco and Rising acquisition, it does not see any impact of weakening macro as consulting is integrated into technology and also due to strong client relationships over the years
  • The management indicated that it is not witnessing any pricing pressure and clients are not asking for any discounts. In fact, it is indicated that since deals are being structured as outcome based in nature, the clients are willing to pay premium pricing and pricing appetite continues.
  • The company indicated that it is in leadership position as far as engineering services are concerned as it has shown 4%+ CQGR revenue growth in last few quarters. It has launched Wipro engineering edge which would provide integrated cloud solutions across 5G ,IoT, industry 4.0 and silicon design. It also indicated that it won several deals from mobility technology company as well as chip design company.
  • The company’s next quarter revenue guidance will have ~150bps contribution from Rising.
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY23E   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 21,529 21,521 18,467 16.6 20,319 6.0 Revenue was up 2.1% QoQ in CC terms & 0.5% in dollar terms
Employee expenses 15,560 15,364 12,757 22.0 14,278 9.0  
               
Gross Margin 5,969 6,157 5,711 4.5 6,041 -1.2  
Gross margin (%) 27.7 28.6 30.9 -320 bps 29.7 -200 bps  
Selling & marketing costs 1,536 1,455 1,302 18.0 1,399 9.8  
G&A expenses 1,342 1,294 1,053 27.4 1,204 11.5  
EBITDA 3,969 4,268 4,526 -12.3 4,304 -7.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 19.8 24.5 -607 bps 21.2 -275 bps  
Depreciation 774 760 839 -7.8 746 3.7  
EBIT 3,195 3,508 3,687 -13.3 3,558 -10.2  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.8 16.3 20.0 -512 bps 17.5 -267 bps IT services EBIT margins declined 200 bps QoQ led by 130 bps impact due to drop in utilization, higher sub contractor cost & internal investments while 20 bps was impacted due to Rizing acquisition
Other income 165 230 387 -57.5 218 -24.4  
PBT 3,359 3,738 4,074 -17.5 3,776 -11.0  
Tax paid 793 700 776 2.3 806 -1.6  
PAT 2,560 3,031 2,972 -13.9 3,090 -17.1  

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