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  • CMP : 259.2 Chg : -2.52 (-0.96%)
  • Target : 420.0 (11.11%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

13 Oct 2022

Slowdown in consulting a concern…

About The Stock

 

Wipro is an IT, consulting & BPO player catering to BFSI, health, consumer, energy & utility, technology and communication.

  • With over 230000 employees, it serves clients across six continents

 

  • Consistent payout (~70%), healthy OCF to EBITDA ratio of ~89%
Q2FY23 Results:

 

Wipro reported strong CC growth in Q2.

  • Revenue growth of 4.1% QoQ in CC terms, 2.3% QoQ in dollar terms
  • IT services EBIT margins improved marginally by 10 bps QoQ to 15.1%
  • TCV grew 24% YoY
What should Investors do?

Wipro’s share price has grown by ~1.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 218 in October 2017 to ~₹ 378 levels in October 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Wipro at ₹ 420 i.e. 15x P/E on FY25E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance

 

  • The strategy of the new CEO to drive a turnaround in the company

 

  • The company’s continuous focus on acquisition led growth

 

  • Continued strong momentum in large deals. It closed 29 large deals in H1 worth US$1.8 bn

 

  • Higher penetration in Europe, client mining, acquisition of new logos and traction digital revenues to further boost revenue growth
Alternate Stock Idea:

Besides Wipro, in our IT coverage we also like TCS.

  • Strong organic growth, consistent financials, industry leading margins and healthy capital allocation policy prompt us to be positive on the stock

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3,630

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 61,340.1 62,234.4 79,753.0 7.7 89,443.3 95,653.8 101,355.6 8.3
EBITDA 12,658.9 15,062.5 17,774.1 9.2 17,588.0 19,735.8 21,098.4 5.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.6 24.2 22.3 - 19.7 20.6 20.8 -
Net Profit 9,721.8 10,786.5 12,873.5 8.7 12,666.1 14,329.8 15,418.2 6.2
EPS (|) 16.6 19.1 22.3 - 23.1 26.1 28.1 -
P/E 22.7 19.8 16.1 - 16.4 14.5 13.5 -
RoNW (%) 17.4 19.5 19.6 - 18.5 20.1 20.8 -
RoCE (%) 19.3 21.2 18.8 - 18.7 20.3 20.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

 

  • In constant currency, IT services business reported revenue growth of 2.3% QoQ to US$2797.7 million (mn) while CC growth was at 4.1% for the quarter (120 bps contribution from Rizing, organic growth was 2.9% QoQ). Rupee revenues grew 5.1% QoQ to | 22,363 crore. IT products business reported revenue of | 125 crore for the quarter
  • The growth in revenues in CC was led by energy, natural resources and utilities (up 6.6% QoQ), manufacturing (up 6.2% QoQ), consumer business unit (up 5.5% QoQ) and BFSI (up 3.6%% QoQ) while technology (up 1.5% QoQ) and health (up 3% QoQ) witnessed some moderation. In terms of geographies, CC growth was led by Europe, which grew 5.6% QoQ while growth in America region was also strong at ~3%. APMEA grew 6.7% QoQ
  • Wipro reported 10 bps QoQ improvement in IT services EBIT margins to 15.1%. The margin improvement for the quarter was aided by i) rupee depreciation, ii) increase in productivity, iii) pricing while headwinds were i) full consolidation of Rizing (low margin compared to company) and wage hike for the quarter. The company mentioned that when the margins of the company were 17-18%, they made a strategic call to invest back some of the margin into acquisitions, talent, capability building due to which margins have come down to 15%. The company indicated that 15% is the floor number for them and margins are expected to improve, going forward, due to better utilisation, pricing and pyramid optimisation
  • The company indicated that market has certainly changed in last one year due to various factors like inflation in US, geopolitical risks in Europe and subsequent energy constraints across the region. The company mentioned that there are no signs of slowdown visible in client interactions, change of market sentiments especially across Europe is a reality. The company has given a cautiously optimistic view on Europe region which along with furlough impact is baked in their Q3 dollar revenue guidance of 0.5-2%
  • The company indicated that consulting business has been one of the key drivers of its growth in the last two years where the company grew 40% vs FY21. It also indicated that consulting business is first one to take a hit in the scenario of slowdown but is also expected to be the first one to accelerate in the economic uptrend as It is nature of that business. It mentioned that Capco growth is slowing deals but is still helping the company to win large deals in the BFSI space
  • The company’s net adds for the quarter were quite subdued after aggressive hiring in last few quarter. Net adds were at 605 employees taking its total employee strength to 259,179. The company has indicated it has hired 14,000 freshers in H1FY23, which was 75% of the total fresher hiring for FY22. Gross utilisation was 72.3%, a drop of 40 bps QoQ. Net utilisation dipped 400 bps QoQ to 79.8%. The utilisation had dropped due to ramp up in fresher hiring in the last few quarters and is expected to improve from Q3 onwards. LTM attrition dropped marginally by 30 bps QoQ to 23.0% for the quarter & the company expects further moderation in the coming quarters
  • Order intake has been strong across geographies as order book for America1, Europe region grew 34%, 36% YoY, respectively. The company indicated that growth in America1 region was aided by Tech product firms (up 26% YoY) while that of America 2 regional was driven by manufacturing and energy (grew 20% each YoY) and also aided by BFSI (up 17% YoY)
  • The management indicated that it is not witnessing any pricing pressure and clients are not asking for any discounts. In fact, it indicated that since deals are being structured as outcome based in nature, the clients are willing to pay premium pricing and pricing appetite continues
  • Wipro indicated that Wipro full stride cloud services now forms a third of its revenue mix. The company also launched Lab45, which is technology research program, which is expected enhance research and development of products and will help companies to develop new assets (IPR) and likely open up new revenue opportunities for clients. Wipro also mentioned that it has witnessed traction for its cybersecurity offerings across its clients globally. It is also delivering new low carbon solutions for clients as a part of ESG
  • The company has booked | 136 crore of restructuring cost for the quarter. Wipro mentioned that it is a one-off that pertains to layoff of some of the employees in Europe to improve efficiency and some marginal spill over of the cost expected in Q3
  • The company continues to look for inorganic opportunities, going forward, to either strengthen its capabilities or client portfolio
  •  The company maintained guidance of double digit revenue growth for FY23
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 22,540 22,619 19,669 14.6 21,529 4.7 Revenue was up 4.1% QoQ in CC terms (organic growth 2.9% & 1.2% contribution from Rizing) & 2.3% in dollar terms implying cross currency impact of 180 bps
Employee expenses 16,384 16,217 13,756 19.1 15,560 5.3 Employee cost increased on account of wage hikes and promotions
               
Gross Margin 6,156 6,402 5,913 4.1 5,969 3.1  
Gross margin (%) 27.3 28.3 30.1 -275 bps 27.7 -41 bps  
Selling & marketing costs 1,514 1,619 1,385 9.3 1,536 -1.4  
G&A expenses 1,500 1,456 1,129 32.9 1,342 11.8 Expenses increased due to one time restructuring cost of | 136 crore pertaining to layoff of some employees in Europe to improve efficiency
EBITDA 4,044 4,203 4,265 -5.2 3,969 1.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 18.6 21.7 -374 bps 18.4 -49 bps  
Depreciation 797 773 772 3.3 774 3.0  
EBIT 3,248 3,430 3,494 -7.0 3,195 1.6  
EBIT Margin (%) 14.4 15.2 17.8 -335 bps 14.8 -43 bps IT services EBIT margin improved 10 bps QoQ to 15.1% aided by i) Rupee depreciation ii) Increase in productivity iii) Pricing while headwinds were i) full consolidation of Rizing (low margin compared to company) and wage hike
Other income 177 167 266 -33.3 165 7.6  
PBT 3,425 3,596 3,759 -8.9 3,359 1.9  
Tax paid 771 792 826 -6.6 793 -2.8  
PAT 2,639 2,804 2,932 -10.0 2,560 3.1  

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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