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  • CMP : 252.0 Chg : -1.25 (-0.49%)
  • Target : 3,425.0 (7.13%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

01 Aug 2022

Focus remains on high priced cigarettes...

About The Stock

VST Industries (VST) is cigarette company in India, involved in manufacturing, marketing cigarettes & trading of unmanufactured tobacco

  • The company has two cigarettes manufacturing facilities in Hyderabad, AP. It has five major brands which includes, ‘Total’, ‘Charms’, ‘Moment’, ‘Special’, & ‘Edition’ and a direct distribution reach of over 1.1 million outlets
Q1FY23 Results

VST reported strong results with 9% cigarettes volume growth

  • Sales were up 9.3% YoY led by cigarettes sales growth of 10.5% YoY
  • EBITDA was at Rs 112.9 crore, up 22.8% YoY, with margins at 37.5%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 87.1 crore (up 23.7% YoY)
What should Investors do?

VST industries share price has underperformed the market with mere 10% return in last five years (from Rs 2901 in August 2017 to Rs 3197 in July 2022).

  • We maintain our numbers for VST Industries. However, believe stable taxation in cigarettes would lead to mid-single digit volume growth.
  • We continue to maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We maintain our Hold rating & target of Rs 3425 valuing the business 14x FY24 earnings

Key triggers for future price performance
  • VST saw 9% cigarette volume growth in Q1FY23 on a low base adversely impacted by Covid-19. It is focusing on brand building through higher spends at point of sale, consumer promotions & product innovation
  • High priced cigarettes ‘Total’ & ‘Edition’ contributing 45% to the volumes. The contribution of high priced cigarettes would continue to rise. The company is looking to introduce new brands at higher price points
  • Duties & taxes on cigarettes to remain stable given increasing prevalence of illicit & contraband cigarettes
  • Dividend pay-out is restored at ~70% after two years of lower dividend due to liquidity concerns during Covid-19 disruption
Alternate Stock Idea

We like TCPL in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,238.1 1,109.8 1,176.7 5.1 1,293.4 1,403.2 - 9.2
EBITDA 414.7 410.6 411.7 10.7 463.7 511.6 - 11.5
EBITDA Margin % 33.5 37.0 35.0 - 35.9 36.5 - -
Net Profit 304.1 310.8 320.3 16.1 354.0 390.5 - 10.4
EPS (Rs) 196.9 201.3 207.4 16.2 229.3 252.9 - 10.4
P/E 16.2 15.9 15.4 - 13.9 12.6 - -
RoNW % 38.6 33.0 30.0 - 33.4 37.8 - -
RoCE (%) 52.1 43.4 39.2 - 44.6 50.6 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1FY23 Results: High competition in capsule brands; VST is still below pre-covid volume

  • Revenue witnessed a growth of 9.3% to Rs 301 crore (net of excise) on the back of strong recovery in cigarettes business. Cigarette sales has grown at 10.5% to Rs 352.4 crore during the quarter aided by 9% YoY volume growth. Sequentially volume increased by 6%. The tobacco exports sales were down 2.5% to Rs 39 crore given freight costs continue to remain high.
  • The company is focussing on investing behind brands through marketing spends at the point of sale rather than giving excessive trade promotions.
  • Competitive activity is very high in capsule brands given these brands contributes 45% to the volumes vs 14% for competitor.
  • The company has extended ‘Total’ brand in KSFT (King Size Filter Cigarette) segment by launching new brand ‘Total T3’ in demi slim format with finger fresh technology (no smell in fingers). The pilot launch has been done in Delhi, Chennai & Vijayawada
  • The company has not taken any price increase in last two years & it is not looking to alter prices in near future. Industry wise Rs 10 price points is witnessing strong traction in last few years.
  • VST’s total distribution has reached to 1.13 million outlets as against 0.7 million in 2014-15. Its operational coverage has increased to 80% of the country as against 60% in 2014-15. This has been driven by brand portfolio changing retail presence from 1-2 SKUs per region to 3-4 SKUs per region
  • Gross margins expanded by 483 bps mainly on account of reduction in trade discounts. Some of the raw material costs like paperboard, prices of filter have gone up sharply however the company is looking for alternate sourcing for these raw materials
  • The employee spends were down by 162 bps (% to sales) during the quarter however, overhead spends were up by 233 bps (% to sales) mainly on account of lower spends in base quarter. The increase was also due to high fuel costs & increasing marketing activity at a point of sale.
  • Led by expansion in gross margins & reduction in employee spends, operating profit grew by 22.8% to Rs 112.9 crore. Operating margins expanded by 413 bps to 37.5%. Net profit grew by 23.7% to Rs 87.1 crore led by higher operating profit.

VST Industries have lost market share in FY22 given the market leader has been aggressive in its promotion activity with trade channels however the company has a long term strategy of increasing its brand proposition rather than giving high trade discounts. It has been focusing on high priced brands like ‘Total’ & ‘Edition’ to grow the sales through product mix improvement. With the same strategy, it has expanded ‘Total’ brand in King size segment. Considering the taxation on cigarettes have been stable since last five years, the category is likely to witness mid-single digit volume growth in medium term. With the focus on high priced brand, the company would be able to further enhance its cigarettes realisation, which is likely to improve margins. However, we are still cautious about sustainable long term volume growth of the category & increasing competitive activity by market leader. We maintain our Hold rating & target price on the stock at Rs 3425 / share

Terms & conditions and Other disclosures

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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