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VST Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,027.5 Chg : 27.95 (0.70%)
  • Target : 3,425.0 (6.07%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

28 Apr 2022

Losing market share with high competitive intensity

About The Stock

VST Industries (VST) is cigarette company in India, involved in manufacturing, marketing cigarettes & trading of unmanufactured tobacco

  • The company has two cigarettes manufacturing facilities in Hyderabad, AP. It has five major brands which includes, ‘Total’, ‘Charms’, ‘Moment’, ‘Special’, & ‘Edition’ and a direct distribution reach of over 1.1 million outlets
Q4FY22 Results: VST reported dismal results with 5% cigarette volume de-growth

 

  • Sales were up 8.8% YoY, cigarettes volumes saw 5% YoY dip
  • EBITDA was at Rs 106.3 crore, up 8.2% YoY, with margins at 35.1%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 87.2 crore (up 19.7% YoY)
What should Investors do?

VST industries share price has underperformed the market with mere 6% return in last five years (from Rs 3048 in April 2017 to Rs 3229 in April 2022).

  • Though cigarette industry volumes have reached to the pre-covid levels, we believe excessive duties, emergence of e-cigarettes & regulatory framework would keep volume growth in low-single digit in stable tax scenario

We continue to maintain our HOLD rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We maintain our Hold rating & target of Rs 3425 valuing the business 14x FY24 earnings

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company saw 6% cigarette volume growth in FY22 after 10% volume de-growth last year. VST is focusing on brand building through higher ad-spends at point of sale, consumer promotions & product innovation  
  • High priced cigarettes ‘Total’ & ‘Edition’ contributing 45% to the volumes. The contribution of high priced cigarettes would continue to rise
  • Duties & taxes on cigarettes to remain stable given increasing prevalence of illicit & contraband cigarettes 
  • Dividend pay-out is restored at ~70% after two years of lower dividend due to liquidity concerns during Covid-19 disruption
Alternate Stock Idea

We like TCPL in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins

We value the stock at Rs 910 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E (blank) CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,238.1 1,109.8 1,176.6 5.1 1,293.4 1,403.2 - 9.2
EBITDA 414.7 410.6 411.6 10.7 463.7 511.6 - 11.5
EBITDA Margin % 33.5 37.0 35.0 - 35.9 36.5 - -
Net Profit 304.1 310.8 320.2 16.1 354.0 390.5 - 10.4
EPS (|) 196.9 201.3 207.4 16.1 229.3 252.9 - 10.4
P/E 16.4 16.0 15.6 - 14.1 12.8 - -
RoNW % 38.6 33.0 30.0 - 33.4 37.8 - -
RoCE (%) 52.1 43.4 39.2 - 44.6 50.6 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Cigarette volumes continue to remain under pressure

  • Consolidated sales witnessed muted growth of 8.8% to Rs 302.6 crore on the back of ~3% dip in cigarette sales & 80% jump in tobacco sales
  • Cigarette volumes have declined ~5% in Q4FY22. On a full year basis, cigarette volumes have jumped up by 6% to 834 crore cigarettes sticks. The company has lost market share in cigarettes in FY22 given market leader has aggressively uptick trade promotions in last one year
  • ‘Edition’ is available at Rs 11/ stick price point whereas ‘Total’ is available at |6-7 / stick price points. ‘Charms, Moment & Special’ brands are available between Rs 4.5/stick to Rs 7.0/stick price points. VST has not taken any price hikes in last two years
  • Tobacco sales jumped 80% mainly on account of low base impacted by container scarcity last year. Tobacco business enjoys ~12% margin
  • Gross margin has expanded 159 bps given the company has reduced the trade discounts & offers. Operating profit witnessed a growth of 8.2% to Rs 106.3 crore. The company is spending more on product development, advertisement at point of sale & consumer promotions. Net profit grew by 19.7% to Rs 87.2 crore mainly on account of 3x increase in other income (due to reversal of old provisioning) & lower tax provisioning
  • The company declared a dividend of Rs 140 / share (dividend pay-out of ~68%). The company reduced its pay-out to ~55% in last two years mainly to improve liquidity during Covid-19 disruptions. However, it has re-stored the dividend pay-out to its previous levels
  • The company has moved away from consistent trade discounts & it is only continuing higher discounts & offers for a particular period. However, it has increased the marketing spends at the points of sales to improve the brand visibility & brand building
  • VST would be looking to consolidate its presence in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, UP & North East States. The company has launched new variants ‘Total Royal Twist’ under the brand ‘Total’ in Q2FY22
  • In last five years, the company has increased its wholesale dealers from 700 to 848 & direct retail reach from 0.8 million retail outlets to 1.1 million retail outlets. The company has enhanced its presence Delhi, Mumbai, UP & Bihar
  • Legal cigarette industry in India constitutes 9% of tobacco consumption & its contribution towards duties & taxes is 80% of the total tobacco products. On the other hand, other tobacco products (bidis, non-smoke tobacco products) contributes 91% to the volumes & only 20% to the duties & taxes. Illegal & contraband is ~8% of the total volumes & consistent increase in duties & taxes on legal cigarettes industry is counterproductive with consumption shift from legal to contrabands

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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