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VST Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,068.4 Chg : 38.90 (0.97%)
  • Target : 3,300.0 (0.73%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Apr 2023

Volume continues to slide downwards…

About The Stock

VST Industries (VST) is cigarette company in India, involved in manufacturing, marketing cigarettes & trading of unmanufactured tobacco

  • The company has two cigarettes manufacturing facilities in Hyderabad, AP. It has five major brands which includes, ‘Total’, ‘Charms’, ‘Moment’, ‘Special’, & ‘Edition’ and a direct distribution reach of over 1.2 million outlets
Q4FY23 Results

VST reported dismal numbers with 7% de-growth in cigarettes sales mainly due to 10% volume decline  

  • Sales was flat YoY; Cigarette volume dip was off-set by higher tobacco sales
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 82.1        crore, down 22.8% YoY, with margins at 2724%
  • Consequently, PAT de-grew by 21.2% to ₹ 68.7 crore
What should Investors do?

VST industries share price has underperformed the market with mere 7% return in last five years (from ₹ 3061 in April 2018 to ₹ 3282 in April 2023).

  • We remain cautious on cigarettes volume growth prospect; the company is losing market share given its limited presence in higher price cigarettes  
  • We continue to maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We maintain our Hold rating with revised target of ₹3300 valuing the business 13x FY25 earnings

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • VST saw flat cigarette volume growth FY23 with market share loss mainly due to limited presence in high-priced cigarettes (₹ 10 price point & above). VST has brand ‘Edition’ at ₹ 11 price point, which only contributes 5% to the sales. It has only recently launch variant of ‘Total’ at ₹ 10/ sick  
  • Duties & taxes on cigarettes to remain stable given high prevalence of illicit & contraband cigarettes. However, crackdown on illicit & contrabands recently helping cigarette industry gain volumes 
  • Dividend pay-out is expected to remain ~70% in future as well. We estimate dividend per share of ₹ 175 & ₹190 in FY24E & FY25E respectively, which out be dividend yield of ~5% 
Alternate Stock Idea

We like TCPL in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹980 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 Year CAGR (18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (23-25E)
Net Sales 1,238.1 1,109.8 1,176.7 1,321.4 6.9 1,405.7 1,508.1 0.1
EBITDA 414.7 410.6 411.7 404.1 6.6 451.7 510.4 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 33.5 37.0 35.0 30.6 - 32.1 33.8 -
Net Profit 304.1 310.8 320.3 334.6 13.0 354.6 407.9 0.1
EPS (|) 196.9 201.3 207.4 216.7 13.0 229.7 264.2 0.1
P/E 16.6 16.3 15.8 15.1 - 14.3 12.4 -
RoNW % 38.6 33.0 29.8 28.4 - 31.0 31.9 -
RoCE (%) 52.1 43.4 39.0 37.0 - 41.3 42.4 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY23 Results: Dismal volume growth; market share loss continues

  • VST Industries witnessed flat sales on the back of 7% decline in cigarettes sales & 17% growth in tobacco sales. Cigarettes volumes de-grew by 10% given the company has cut down trade margins on ‘Total’ brand. The company is trying to insulate demand through consumer pull rather than pushing it through higher discounts

 

  • On a full year basis, cigarette volume has remained flat & the company has lost market share. High priced cigarettes (| 10 or above) is gaining traction  & this segment is grown at 20-25% in FY23. Tobacco sales witnessed a growth 55% to | 328 crore

 

  • The company has introduced brand ‘Total Curl’ at |10/price point to increase its presence in the segment. However, it is still not gaining traction. VST would be re-launching this brand in future. It is selling in Delhi & Chennai market currently

 

  • Volume composition remain at the same rate. ‘Total’ brand contributes 40% to the volumes whereas ‘edition’ brand contributes 5% to the volumes. ‘Total’ brands sell at | 6 & | 7 price point. Edition brands sells at |11 price point

 

  • Gross margin for the company contracted by 506 bps mainly due to higher proportion of tobacco sales, which is 13% margin business. Moreover, commodity prices have increased sharply in last six months. Tobacco prices have increases 15-20% & tow filter rod prices have increased by 50% in last one year.

 

  • Employee spends were higher by 92 bps (% to sales) mainly due to negative operating leverage. Overhead spends were higher by 194 bps on the back of high freight cos due to increase in tobacco exports

 

  • The company got the approval for the conversion of the factory / Registered Office premises from leasehold to freehold property in the Azamabad Industrial Area (AIA) from the Government of Telangana. The purchase of this property was executed at a consideration of | 324.1 crore

 

  • VST declared a dividend of | 150 / share, which is 70.8% dividend pay-out. The dividend yield stands at 4.6%

Disclaimer

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Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

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