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  • CMP : 1,380.5 Chg : -13.80 (-0.99%)
  • Target : 1,120.0 (7.28%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 May 2022

Delay in price hike hits UCP segment profitability…

About The Stock

Voltas is a home appliances company specialising in air conditioning and air cooling technology in the B2B and B2C space.

·       The company is a market leader with ~26% market share in RAC

 

·       Healthy b/s reflected by strong return ratios (RoE: ~11%, RoCE: ~15%)

Voltas is a home appliances company specialising in air conditioning and air cooling technology in the B2B and B2C space.  The company is a market leader with ~26% market share in RAC  Healthy b/s reflected by strong return ratios (RoE: ~11%, RoCE: ~15%)

Q4FY22 Results

The company’s Q4 performance was hit by lower EMPS revenues and sharp decline in the profitability of UCP segment.

  • Voltas reported a muted topline growth of ~1% YoY to Rs. 2667 crore due to de-growth in EMPS segment. UCP segment grew 10% led by price hikes
  • EBITDA margin down 268 bps YoY to 9.8%, led by high raw material costs. Gross margin declined 278 bps YoY. EBIT margin of Unitary cooling products (UCP) dipped 522 bps to 10.6%
  • PAT declined ~24% to Rs. 183 crore tracking lower EBITDA in Q4FY22
What should Investors do?

Voltas’ share price has grown by ~2.4x over the past five years (from Rs. 433 in May 2017 to Rs. 1044 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Voltas at Rs. 1120 using SOTP i.e. 9x P/E for EMPS, 9x P/E for EPS and 50x P/E for UCP on FY24E EPS for each.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Structural demand owing to changing consumer lifestyle (work from home) post pandemic is likely to drive near term demand for RAC 
  • On a long term basis, we believe, rising income and aspirations of middle class household in India will be a key demand driver for cooling products. AC’s penetration at 7% is lowest among white goods segment 
  • Higher demand of energy efficient products would help drive premiumisation in the air conditioner industry

 Structural demand owing to changing consumer lifestyle (work from home) post pandemic is likely to drive near term demand for RAC  On a long term basis, we believe, rising income and aspirations of middle class household in India will be a key demand driver for cooling products. AC’s penetration at 7% is lowest among white goods segment  Higher demand of energy efficient products would help drive premiumisation in the air conditioner industry

Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage universe.

  • Supreme is market leader in plastic piping segment with ~14% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of Rs. 2320

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 7,124.1 7,658.1 7,555.8 7,934.5 5.6 9,708.0 10,895.1 17.2
EBITDA 611.7 686.7 641.4 681.6 3.8 830.9 1,147.7 29.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 9.0 8.5 8.6 - 8.6 10.5 -
Net Profit 513.9 521.0 528.8 506.0 -0.5 694.0 957.0 37.5
EPS (|) 15.5 15.8 16.0 15.3 - 21.0 28.9 -
P/E(x) 67.2 66.3 65.3 68.2 - 49.8 36.1 -
Price/Book (x) 8.4 8.1 6.9 6.3 - 6.9 6.0 -
RoE (%) 12.7 13.0 10.6 9.2 - 13.8 16.6 -
RoCE(%) 17.3 19.5 15.0 14.0 - 18.0 21.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Unitary Cooling Products:

  • Revenue increased 10% YoY to Rs. 1818 crore led by price hike
  • Inverter AC contributes 75% of all AC sold compared to 70% in the same period last year
  • Continued focus on expansion of exclusive brand outlets (EBO). Currently, there is a presence of 200 EBOs and the company aims to add 50 more outlets during the year
  • Even though market share reduced from 25.8% to 23.4%, Voltas remains the market leader in the RAC segment
  • Loss in market share is due to summer specific demand from the southern part of India where Voltas is not as prominent as it is in the northern region. Major loss of market share is to LG, Lloyd and Samsung
  • Commercial refrigeration segment registered a volume led growth in Q4FY22, which was driven by expansion of Mom & Pop stores, change in food habits and expansion of Mom & Pop stores

Electro mechanical projects services:

  • Domestic order book was at Rs. 3638 crore as on March 2022 spread across water, HVAC and urban infra activities (like Air Ports, Metros, Railways)
  • International order book was at Rs. 1722 crore as on March 2022, which is a decline of ~24% QoQ
  • The segment has been affected by increased commodity prices. Increase in global oil price and the lifting of Covid related restrictions are expected to improve business sentiment overseas

Engineering products & services:

  • On the back of the revival of the crushing & screening equipment, operations in Mozambique and India have contributed to increased performance.
  • Growing yarn exports, strong demand for capital machinery in both spinning and post-spinning, and a well-defined approach to strengthening after-sales business all contributed to favourable results during the quarter

Company related information:

  • Milestone of sale of 1 million units under the Voltbek brand was achieved in the current year. Production at Sanand factory also crossed 1 million units with better productivity and high quality
  • Voltas Beko’s exit market share for refrigerator is 3-3.5% and washing machine is ~4%
  • In-house production has aided the brand in introducing more customer-centric products, overcoming supply chain disruptions, optimising working capital, and achieving additional cost advantages
  • The company aims to achieve 10% market share by 2025 for the Voltbek brand
  • Voltas Plans to form a joint venture with a top global company for manufacturing inverter compressors. The company envisages a capex plan of Rs. 450-500 crore in the next two to three years
Variance Analysis:
 
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,666.6 2,833.0 2,651.7 0.6 1,793.6 48.7   Lower revenues from EMPS segment coupled with delays in volume offtake of RACs led to overall muted topline growth
Other Income 37.2 40.4 31.6 17.8 28.8 29.4    
                 
Raw Material Exp 1,383.7 1,517.7 1,379.6 0.3 722.8 91.5   Higher raw material prices and delay in price hikes led to 278 bps YoY decline in gross margin
Employee Exp 160.0 154.6 146.3 9.4 156.2 2.4    
Purchase of Traded goods 675.0 691.4 593.9 13.7 587.0 15.0    
Other Expenses 186.8 215.6 201.1 -7.1 172.0 8.6    
                 
EBITDA 261.0 253.7 330.7 -21.1 155.6 67.7    
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.8 9.0 12.5 -268 bps 8.7 111 bps   Lower EBITDA margin is attributable to higher raw material costs and low operating leverage
Depreciation 9.5 11.1 8.9 6.5 9.7 -2.6    
Interest 12.5 4.6 10.4 20.1 3.6 245.6    
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0      
 Profit/(loss) from Asso & JVs         (28.9)        (15.2)       (22.2)         (32.0)      Loss from JV & associates companies, which includes losses from Voltas-Beko 
PBT 247.4 263.4 320.9 -22.9 139.1 77.9    
Total Tax 64.7 65.8 82.1 -21.2 42.5 52.2    
PAT 182.7 197.5 238.7 -23.5 96.6 89.2   PAT decline was largely on account of muted sales and lower EBITDA margins
                 
Key Metrics                
EMPS 692 949 875 -21.0 554 24.9   Low carry order book and focus on execution of quality orders has led to decline in revenues
EPS 124 111 98 26.4 125 -0.9   Revival in crushing & screening equipment in both India & Mozambique help drive segment revenue
UCP 1818 1750 1655 9.9 1094 66.3   Revenue growth was largely driven by price hikes (in the range of ~15%) for FY22
                 
 Gross margin           22.8         24.8         25.6 -278 bps        27.0 -418 bps    

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