loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 1,380.5 Chg : -13.80 (-0.99%)
  • Target : 1,075.0 (9.92%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

05 Aug 2022

Market share gains in RAC; margins under pressure…

About The Stock

Voltas is a home appliances company specialising in air conditioning and air cooling technology in the B2B and B2C space.

  • The company is a market leader with ~26% market share in RAC
  • Healthy b/s reflected by strong return ratios (RoE: ~11%, RoCE: ~15%)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong growth in the UCP segment led by market share gains; EBITDA margin under pressure.

  • Revenue increased 55% YoY to ~ ₹ 2768 crore led by 125% growth in the UCP segment. Strong demand of cooling products helped drive volume growth. EMPS segment disappoints with lower revenues in Q1
  • EBITDA margin declined 121 bps YoY to 6.4% dragged by high raw material costs and increased advertisement spends. EBIT margin of unitary cooling products (UCP) dipped 457 bps to 7.7%
  • PAT declined ~11% to ~₹ 110 crore tracking lower EBITDA margin and losses from JVs/associates in Q1FY23
What should Investors do?

Voltas’ share price has grown by ~1.82x over the past five years (from ~₹ 537 in August 2017 to ~₹ 978 levels in August 2022).

We maintain our HOLD rating on stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value Voltas at ₹ 1075 using SOTP i.e. i.e. 9x P/E for EMPS, 9x P/E for EPS and 55x P/E for UCP on FY24E EPS for each

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Structural demand owing to changing consumer lifestyle (work from home) post pandemic is likely to drive near term demand for RAC
  • On a long term basis, we believe rising income and aspirations of middle class household in India will be a key demand driver for cooling products. AC’s penetration at 7% is lowest among white goods segment
  • Higher demand for energy efficient products would help drive premiumisation in the air conditioner industry
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Polycab India in our coverage.

Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India.  Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2680

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,124.1 7,658.1 7,555.8 7,934.5 5.6 9,815.8 11,402.9 19.9
EBITDA 611.7 686.7 641.4 681.6 3.8 833.7 1,084.6 26.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 9.0 8.5 8.6 - 8.5 9.5 -
Net Profit 513.9 521.0 528.8 506.0 -0.5 623.3 829.1 28.0
EPS (|) 15.5 15.8 16.0 15.3 - 18.8 25.1 -
P/E(x) 62.9 62.1 61.2 63.9 - 51.9 39.0 -
Price/Book (x) 7.9 7.6 6.5 5.9 - 6.5 5.8 -
RoE (%) 12.7 13.0 10.6 9.2 - 12.6 14.9 -
RoCE(%) 17.3 19.5 15.0 14.0 - 17.5 20.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Strong growth in AC segment drives overall topline; EMPS business disappoints

  • Voltas reported strong topline growth of 55% YoY to | 2768 crore led by UCP segment sales growth of 125% YoY to | 2162 crore. Favourable base and strong demand for cooling products drove AC volume growth up by 111% YoY in Q1FY23. Higher advertisement expenditure and no price hikes in Q1 helped the company regain its lost market share. The volume market share of the company increased to ~24.1% (from 23% in Q4FY22)
  • The EMPS segment revenue declined 34% YoY to | 455 crore mainly due to low carry forward order book. The carry forward order book at | 5811 crore declined 6% YoY
  • Engineering products & services (EPS) segment revenue increased 8% YoY to ~| 124 crore. This was led by strong demand for textile machineries
  • Gross margin declined 733 bps YoY to ~21%, dragged by higher raw material costs and delay in price hikes. However, savings in employee costs and other expenses helped restrict EBITDA margin fall at 121 bps YoY to 6.4%. The EMPS segment reported a loss of | 12.5 crore at EBIT level (vs.
    | 31 crore profit in the base period) due to cost overruns and higher provisions in some of the key projects. UCP segment EBIT margin declined sharply by 457 bps YoY to 7.7%, mainly due to high raw material costs and higher advertisement expenses
  • PAT declined ~11% YoY to ~| 110 crore, tracking lower EBITDA margin and continued losses from associate/JVs in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Unitary cooling products 

  • The company saw season led demand after two years of demand slowdown due to Covid. The volume growth in the UCP segment rose 111% YoY. The revenue from this segment rose by ~125% YoY to | 2162 crore
  • Voltas regained its market share in the overall AC market at 24.1% as of June 2022, which is a 950 bps lead over the nearest competitor. Voltas remains the market leader in the AC segment 
  • A large number of SKUs along with competitive pricing helped to drive the demand for inverters
  • The contribution of inverters in split AC segment increased from 70% in Q1FY22 to 82% in Q1FY23. The company has now become a market leader in the Inverter AC market as well with a market share of 21.8% as of June 2022, which is a 300 bps lead over the nearest competitor
  • The company saw a boost in demand for commercial refrigerators led by demand for beverages and ice cream products in summer by mom & pop stores and expansion in trade sales 
  • Air coolers, commercial air conditioners, packaged air conditioners and ducted split units also saw growth in demand led by weather conditions

 

Electro-mechanical projects and services

  • This segment saw a dip in revenue from | 688 crore to | 455 crore due to a low carry forward order book as well as most projects reaching completion stage during the quarter
  • On account of cost overruns and conservative provisions, this segment reported a loss of | 12 crore
  • The domestic order book in this segment came in at | 225 crore vs. | 58 crore in Q1FY22. With a revival of public and private capital expenditure, the company expects an increase in healthy order booking for the current financial year
  • In the Middle East region, most bigger projects are in their completion stage whereas the new projects are in a nascent stage wherein margin recognition will accrue at a later point

 

 

Engineering Products and Services 

  • EPS segment saw growth in revenue by ~8% YoY to | 124 crore led by demand from Mozambique and India
  • Increase in export duty fines in the iron ore market marginally impacted demand for capital equipment in this segment
  • Textile machinery division saw growth led by high demand for capital machinery in textile industry, both in spinning and post-spinning
  • Price hikes and supply-chain disruptions continue to pose challenges for this segment. However, the management believes that in the long run, the PLI benefits announced by the government and an opportunity of expansion in the export market will boost demand in the textile sector

 

Company Related Information 

  • The company has leveraged the strength of Voltas distribution to increase touchpoints for its Voltbek products 
  • In-house manufacturing of Voltbek products has helped the brand to introduce more customer centric and value for money products. A healthy product mix along with value engineering across product categories has resulted in the improvement of gross margin
  • The management expects demand in Q2FY23 to be subdued for cooling products due to low seasonal demand. However, the management expects pick-up in demand with the start of the festive season in India
  • The company has guided capex in the range of | 400-450 crore for FY23E-24E. Delay in government approvals may likely delay manufacturing of compressors in India. The company has signed joint venture agreement with ‘Highly’ to start manufacturing of compressors in India in May 2022
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,768.0 2,823.6 1,785.2 55.1 2,666.6 3.8   Favourable base and strong recovery in the UCP segment revenue drives overall revenue growth
Other Income 26.8 34.2 75.0 -64.3 37.2 -28.0    
                 
Raw Material Exp 1,431.7 1,456.6 924.3 54.9 1,383.7 3.5   Use of high cost inventories and no price hike in Q1 dragged overall gross margin for the company
Employee Exp 150.5 201.7 147.4 2.1 160.0 -5.9    
Purchase of Traded goods 767.6 616.3 363.3 111.3 675.0 13.7    
Other Expenses 241.3 289.2 214.3 12.6 186.8 29.1    
                 
EBITDA 177.0 259.8 135.8 30.3 261.0 -32.2    
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.4 9.2 7.6 -121 bps 9.8 -339 bps   Higher raw material cost was partially offset by improved operating leverage thereby restricting EBITDA margin fall
Depreciation 8.5 10.9 8.6 -1.4 9.5 -10.2    
Interest 4.0 4.1 3.5 13.7 12.5 -68.2    
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0      
 Profit/(loss) from Asso & JVs       (31.0)          (6.7)       (30.6)         (28.9)      Loss from JV & associates companies, which includes losses from Voltas-Beko 
PBT 160.3 272.3 168.1 -4.6 247.4 -35.2    
Total Tax 50.8 68.4 45.6 11.3 64.7 -21.5    
PAT 109.5 203.9 122.4 -10.5 182.7 -40.1   PAT decline was largely on account of muted sales and lower EBITDA margins
                 
Key Metrics                
EMPS 455 613 688 -34.0 692 -34.3   Low carry order book led to decline in revenues
EPS 124 124 115 8.1 124 0.7   High demand of capital machinary in the taxtiles industry and improving after sales business helped drive segment revenue growth 
UCP 2162 2064 963 124.5 1818 18.9   Favourable base and strong demand of cooling products drove volume growth of RAC up by 111% YoY

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance) and Hitesh Taunk, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read More