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Varun Beverages Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,398.0 Chg : -6.0 (-0.43%)
  • Target : 1,100.0 (18.79%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

02 Aug 2022

Impressive volume growth aided by normal summer

About The Stock

Varun beverage is one of the largest franchisee of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces & distributes Carbonated drinks, Juices & packaged drinking water in six countries including India. Some of the PepsiCo brands produced by VBL includes Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, Nimbooz, String, Slice, Tropicana, Aquafina among others  

  • The company has operations in India (except Andhra Pradesh, J&K & Ladakh), Sri-Lanka, Nepal, Morocco, Zambia & Zimbabwe
Q2CY22 Results

Varun beverages splendid results with volume growth of 96.9%

  • Sales were up 102.3% YoY on led by extreme summer, low base & strong growth in underpenetrated territories
  • EBITDA was at Rs 1250.6 crore, up 119.1% YoY, with margins at 25.2%
  • Consequent PAT grew by 151.6% to Rs 802 crore
What should Investors do?

Varun Beverage share price has given 6.2x return (from Rs 149 in August 2017 to Rs 926 in August 2022).

  • We revise our CY22 & CY23 revenue & earnings number upward after robust volume growth in H1CY22. We are introducing CY24 numbers
  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 1100, valuing the business 40x CY24 PE

Key triggers for future price performance
  • The underpenetrated territories of Bihar, MP, Jharkhand & southern & western territories are growing to their potential after distribution expansion to 3 million outlets
  • The growth in newer brands like ‘Sting’ & milk based beverages growing at faster pace, supporting overall volumes growth
  • With strong volume growth & capacity utilisation touching 90%, VBL would be expanding its capacity by 30% with capex of Rs 1200 crore in CY23
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer products in our FMCG coverage

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

- CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR % (CY16 - CY21) CY22E CY23E CY24E (Blank) CAGR % (CY21-24E)
Net Sales 6,450.1 8,823.2 18.0 12,338.5 13,919.4 15,538.8 - 20.8
EBITDA 1,201.9 1,654.6 15.8 2,566.9 2,860.1 3,196.1 - 24.5
EBITDA Margin % 18.6 18.8 - 20.8 20.5 20.6 - -
Net Profit 362.1 746.1 73.1 1,336.7 1,517.3 1,779.4 - 33.6
Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.6 11.5 34.2 20.6 23.4 27.4 - 33.6
P/E 166.2 80.7 - 45.0 39.7 33.8 - -
RoNW % 10.3 18.3 - 26.3 25.3 27.3 - -
RoCE (%) 10.9 17.1 - 28.1 30.8 34.7 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1CY22 Results: Robust volume growth even in 3-year CAGR; operating leverage boost margins…

  • VBL witnessed a revenue growth of 102.3% to Rs 4954.8 crore led by 96.9% volume growth & 2.7% realisation growth. The company sold 300 million cases during the quarter, which include 73% of the cases of carbonated soft drinks, 18% cases of water & 9% of the cases of Juices. Realisation growth was 2.7% to Rs 165 / case led by price hikes in select SKUs & reduction in discounts & incentives. On a three year CAGR basis, sales & volume growth was 20.8% & 15% respectively.
  • The company increased its distribution network to 3.0 million plus outlets after two years of Covid related disruptions. The 3.0 million outlets include 0.4 million ‘Sting’ only outlets, 0.25 million international outlets. The company would be increasing its distribution footprints by 8-10% every year.
  • The high volume growth was led by extreme summer, low base of last two years, higher volumes from acquired southern, western territories and also distribution expansion in under-penetrated territories like Bihar, MP, Chhattisgarh, Odisha.
  • Sales volume in India increased by 106.4% to 262 million cases & international territories saw 49.2% jump in volumes to 38 million cases. Capacity utilisation in India was close to 90% driven by high sales volumes. In certain categories like CSD PET, Tropicana, Value added drinks capacity utilisation reached 100%
  • With the very high inflationary pressures, gross margins contracted by 302 bps despite the company procuring PET inventories well before the season started. Employee & overhead spends were down by 366 bps & 130 bps mainly due to effect of operating leverage. Operating profit grew by 119% to Rs 1250.6 crore & operating margin seen uptick of 194 bps to 25.2%. Net profit witnessed a growth of 119.1% to Rs 802 crore aided by transition to lower tax rate in India
  • Net debt dipped by Rs 950 crore to Rs 2055.5 crore in last six months. Net working capital reduced from 24 days in June 2021 to 17 days in June 2022. In H1CY22, capex included |670 crore primarily setting up of new greenfield production facility in Bihar, Jammu & brownfield expansion at Sandia facility
  • Newly set-up capacity in Bihar was planned for three-year perspective. However, it reached 100% utilisation in its first year of operations. The company would be undertaking capex of Rs 1200 crore in CY23, which includes one each greenfield plant in MP & Rajasthan & brownfield capacity in Bihar. The company would be increasing its total capacity by 30% by CY23.
  • PepsiCo’s market shares in under-penetrated categories of MP, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand & Chhattisgarh is 15-20% & this provide huge opportunity to grow in these regions.
  • Energy drink ‘Sting’ has witnessed a growth of 185% & it now contributed 7.2% to the volumes. Similar, dairy based products are also growing at faster pace. The company would be doubling dairy capacity in CY23 season. Currently, the company is only able to serve Northern territories given dairy plant is located in Punjab.
  • The company has taken Rs 31.8 crore (Rs 46.4 crore in H1) during the quarter write off on returnable glass bottles (RGB) lines given demand for RGB bottles reduced substantially during Covid-19 period.
  • The volume growth in double digit is possible in next few years given strong demand scenario in Juices, energy drinks & milk based beverages. Further under-penetrated territories in East & acquired territories of South & West expected to grow faster given the company’s share is lower in these territories
  • International territories like Nepal, Morocco are growing well with increase in margins. Zimbabwe capacity has been added in current year, which would start production in coming quarter. Sri-Lanka territory is facing disruption but it contributes 1% to the total volumes
  • The company would start manufacturing Kurkure brand from October 2022. VBL would be only manufacturing the brands, marketing & distribution would be done by PepsiCo.
  • The company announced a dividend of Rs 2.5 /share.

Varun beverage witnessed splendid volume growth during the quarter largely backed by low base, extreme summer & potential growth in acquired southern and western territories (acquired 3 years back).  With the 90% utilisation of its capacity, the company was able to reach volume of 300 million cases during the quarter. Though, high commodity inflation adversely impacted gross margins, the company was still able to off-set the cost with early procurement of PET inventories. We believe the company has been able to drive the potential of underpenetrated territories of Bihar, MP, Odisha, Jharkhand & Chhattisgarh. With this kind of growth, we have upgraded our volume numbers 12% in CY22E & CY23E. The expected dip in crude based packaging costs (PET chip prices), the margins improvement is also expected in H1CY23. We remain positive on Varun beverages. We maintain BUY rating to the stock with the revised target price of Rs 1100 (earlier:Rs 900).

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