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Varun Beverages Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,455.0 Chg : 13.05 (0.91%)
  • Target : 1,300.0 (22.76%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

04 May 2022

Operating leverage offsets gross margins pressure

About The Stock

Varun Beverages is one of the largest franchisees of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces & distributes carbonated drinks, juices & packaged drinking water in six countries including India. Some of the PepsiCo brands produced by VBL includes Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, Nimbooz, String, Slice, Tropicana, Aquafina among others.  The company has operations in India (except Andhra Pradesh, J&K & Ladakh), Sri-Lanka, Nepal, Morocco, Zambia & Zimbabwe

Q1CY22 Results

Varun Beverages reported robust volume growth of 18.7%.

  • Sales were up 26.2% YoY led by strong recovery in volumes
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 531 crore, up 39.1% YoY, with margins at 18.8%  Consequent PAT grew 98.2% to ₹ 271.1 crore
What should investors do?

Varun Beverage’s share price has given 4.9x return (from Rs 215 in April 2017 to Rs 1059 in April 2022).

  • We revise our CY23 earnings number upwards with robust volume growth, margin expansion through operating leverage & reduction in debt & interest
  • We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY rating
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 1300, valuing the business 24x CY23 EV / EBITDA

Key Triggers for Future Price Performance
  • With normalisation of mobility, strong summer season after acquisition of South & West territories is likely to drive robust volume growth
  • The company has launched several new brands in last two years i.e. String, ‘Mountain Dew ICE’, Milk based beverages. New products are contributing ~10% to volumes and are likely to aid revenues, going forward
  • Given the capex requirement equal to depreciation, VBL would be able to completely de-leverage its balance sheet in the next three to four years with strong free cash flow. The reduction in interest cost to boost profitability
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY19 CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR (CY16-CY21) CY22E CY23E (Blank) CAGR (CY21-CY23E)
Net Sales 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 18.0 10,911.7 12,172.5 - 17.5
EBITDA 1,447.7 1,201.9 1,654.6 15.8 2,217.7 2,481.9 - 22.5
EBITDA Margin % 20.3 18.6 18.8 - 20.3 20.4 - -
Net Profit 472.2 362.1 746.1 73.1 1,120.8 1,312.6 - 32.6
EPS (Rs) 16.4 8.4 17.2 45.6 25.9 30.3 - 32.6
P/E 64.7 126.7 61.5 - 40.9 34.9 - -
RoNW % 14.2 10.3 18.3 - 22.8 23.0 - -
RoCE % 15.5 10.9 17.1 - 25.6 29.7 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1CY22 Results: Early summer & extreme heat driving volumes at stupendous pace

  • Varun Beverage saw strong revenue growth of 26.2% to Rs 2827.5 crore led by 18.7% volume growth & 6.3% realisation growth. The company clocked a volume of 180 million cases during the quarter, which includes 70% volumes from carbonated drinks (CSD), 7% from juices & 23% from water
  • The growth was driven by strong demand conditions across geographies. Realisation increase came from price hikes in select SKUs (1-2%) in India, reduction in trade discounts (2-3%) and change in product mix (~2%). With increase in out of home activity, single pack & ‘on-the-go’ sales have grown significantly. Single pack commands relatively higher margins
  • Gross margins contracted 427 bps during the quarter mainly on account of higher PET chip prices. Though the company has reduced the weight of PET bottles & procured high inventories of PET chip before the season, still incessant commodity inflation adversely impacted gross margins
  • With the operating leverage benefits & cost cutting measures, VBL saved 511 bps in overhead spends & 91 bps in employee spends in Q4. This led to 39% jump in operating profit to Rs 531 crore with 175 bps expansion in operating margins. Given, high growth in operating profit & 19% dip in interest cost, net profit grew by a stupendous 98.2% to Rs 271.1 crore
  • VBL commissioned new beverage manufacturing plant in Bihar and new backward integrated unit in J&K during Q1CY22. It also entered into an agreement to manufacture “Kurkure Puffcorn” for PepsiCo India & invested Rs 23 crore towards manufacturing plant
  • The company has written off (Rs 14.6 crore) plant & machinery (CSD glass & cane line) at Roha, Maharashtra & moved the packaged drinking water line to Paithan plant. The plant was running on sub-optimal capacity utilisation
  • Energy drink ‘Sting’, milk based beverages & Tropicana juices are growing at rapid pace & manufacturing line are running at 100% utilisation. String now contributes 6-7% whereas Tropicana & Milk based beverages are contributing 2% & 0.5% to the volumes. Its Pathankot facility for Tropicana is running at full capacity and the company would set up a second Tropicana plant by next season
  • Capacity utilisation levels were closer to 65% in the peak month of ‘May’ in pre-Covid summer (2019). However, it would be closer to full utilisation in May in the current season (2022). This depicts strong demand conditions for beverage category
  • All international territories have witnessed high growth led by extreme heat, low base & enhanced reach. Sri-Lanka & Morocco saw 37% & 50% volume growth during the quarter
  • Despite steep commodity inflation, the company has secured its supplies for PET chip for the season. Other key raw material like sugar prices are likely to remain benign. Considering, high operating leverage, the company would be able to clock operating margins in the range of 20-21%
  • Net debt is at Rs 3100 crore as on March 2022 while the capex would be equal to depreciation provisioning. The company would be utilising part of the cash flows for debt repayment & capex
  • The Board has recommended a bonus issue of one equity share for every two equity shares held as on the record date

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