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Varun Beverages Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,396.1 Chg : -1.85 (-0.13%)
  • Target : 1,470.0 (3.74%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 May 2023

Splendid volume growth continues…

About The Stock

Varun Beverage (VBL) is one of the largest franchisees of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces & distributes carbonated drinks, juices & packaged drinking water in six countries including India.          Some of the PepsiCo brands produced by VBL include Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, Nimbooz, String, Slice, Tropicana, Aquafina among others.

  • The company has operations in India (except Andhra Pradesh, J&K & Ladakh), Sri Lanka, Nepal, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Q1CY23 Results

Varun Beverages witnessed strong volume growth of 24.7%

  • Sales were up 37.7% YoY led by 24.7% volume & 10.4% realisation growth
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 798 crore, up 50.3% YoY, with margins at 20.5%
  • Consequently, PAT was at ₹ 438.6 crore, up 61.8%
What should Investors do?

Varun Beverage’s share price has given 6.6x return (from ₹ 214 in April 2018 to ₹ 1417 in April 2023).          

  • We estimate 11% volume CAGR & sustainable operating margins above 21%. This would lead to earning CAGR of 16.4% between CY22-24E 
  • We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1470, valuing the business at 45x CY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • VBL has seen 15% organic volume growth in last three years led by distribution expansion in underpenetrated territories and new launches (Sting, Milk based beverages etc). It is continuing the growth momentum with 25% volume growth in Q1CY23
  • It has commissioned greenfield capacity in Kota, Rajasthan & expected to commission another plant in Jabalpur, MP soon. This along with brownfield expansion in six other plants have enhanced capacity by 20-25%.
  • The growth in newer brands like ‘Sting’ & milk-based beverages growing at faster pace, supporting overall volume growth. VBL would undertake capex with two new facilities in Maharashtra & UP for energy & milk beverages
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 980 on ascribing 52x FY25 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 5 Year CAGR (CY17-CY22) CY23E CY24E CAGR (CY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 26.9 15,181.0 16,957.2 0.1
EBITDA 1,447.7 1,201.9 1,654.6 2,788.1 27.2 3,258.1 3,662.8 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 20.3 18.6 18.8 21.2 - 21.5 21.6 -
Net Profit 472.2 362.1 746.1 1,550.1 48.6 1,788.2 2,100.4 0.2
Diluted EPS (|) 7.3 5.6 11.5 23.9 15.3 27.5 32.3 0.2
P/E 194.9 254.2 123.4 59.4 - 51.5 43.8 -
RoNW % 14.2 10.3 18.3 30.4 - 27.8 26.9 -
RoCE (%) 15.5 10.9 17.1 23.8 - 28.7 32.2 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q1CY23 Results: Margin expansion propelled by operating leverage

  • Revenue witnessed a growth of 37.7% to | 3893 crore led by 24.7% & 10.4% growth in net realisation in Q1CY23. Consolidate sales volume grew by 24.7% to 224.1 million cases & average realisations increased by 10.4% to | 173.7 / case during the quarter. Domestic volume grew by 28%.

 

  • Carbonated soft drinks (CSD), Juices & water accounts for 71.2%, 7.4% & 21.4% respectively to the total volumes. The strong growth was led by stupendous growth in energy drink brand ‘Sting’

 

  • CSD volumes have grown by 27% to 160 million cases whereas juices & water volumes have grown at 23.1% & 17.1% to 16 million cases & 48 million cases respectively

 

  • Rural growth has recovered & now both rural & urban regions growing at similar rate

 

  • Gross margins expanded by 89 bps on account of softening of major raw material prices & increasing contribution of high margins products. Employee spends (% to sales) were down by 102 bps & overhead spends (% to sales) were up by 19 bps during the quarter.

 

  • Operating profit grew by 50.3% to |798 crore with operating profit margin expansion of 172 bps to 20.5% on the back of operating leverage benefit. Net profit grew by 61.8% to | 438.6 crore

 

  • The company has commissioned its greenfield facility at Kota, Rajasthan. Further it has expanded its capacity at six existing locations. Another Greenfield plant in Jabalpur, MP would get commissioned soon. The company incurred | 1500 crore capex for this capacity addition

 

  • Energy drink ‘Sting’ continues to grow at the faster pace in Q1 with double digit volume growth. Energy drink growth has been aided by distribution expansion & addition of Visi-Coolers.

 

  • The growth in Juices & Milk-beverages was constrained by lack of capacity. VBL would be commissioning two plants in Maharashtra & UP by the end of the year. The company is concentrating on Juices, Sports drinks & Milk-beverages to drive next level of growth

 

  • Margins in Sports drinks, Juices & Milk-Beverages is similar to the existing Carbonated soft drinks. GST + Cess for Soft drink is 40% whereas it is only 12% for other beverages. Given, the company is in value added milk products rather than plain milk, margins in the category are strong

 

  • Major raw materials like PET & Sugar prices have remained Stable. Small increase in prices in future would not adversely impact margins in medium term

 

  • International business margins were lower mainly due to adverse currency movement in Zambia.

 

  • Direct distribution reach for the company has increased by 10% from 3 million retail outlets to 3.3 million retail outlets with total number of distributors at 2400. VBL would continue to focus on increasing distribution.

 

  • Sports drink Gatorade which was only available in 500 ml SKU is now available in 200 ml SKU as well. With the capacity expansion, smaller SKUs & higher distribution reach, sports drink brand can grow at faster pace going forward

 

  • The current net debt for the company stands at | 4000 crore & debt to EBITDA stands at 1.3x. With the increase in asset turnover, return ratios can improve from 30% to 35% in next three to five years


  • The Board recommended stock split of existing equity shares of the Company from 1 equity share having face value of | 10 each into 2 equity shares having face value of | 5 each

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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