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  • CMP : 469.4 Chg : -4.20 (-0.89%)
  • Target : 1,340.0 (9.75%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Feb 2023

Distribution expansion driving volume growth…

About The Stock

Varun Beverage (VBL) is one of the largest franchisees of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces & distributes carbonated drinks, juices & packaged drinking water in six countries including India. Some of the PepsiCo brands produced by VBL include Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, Nimbooz, String, Slice, Tropicana, Aquafina among others.

  • The company has operations in India (except Andhra Pradesh, J&K & Ladakh), Sri Lanka, Nepal, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Q4CY22 Results

Varun Beverages witnessed strong volume growth of 17.8%

  • Sales were up 27.7% YoY led by strong volume & superior product mix
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 307.5 crore, up 48              .1% YoY, with margins at 13.9%
  • Consequently, PAT was at ₹ 81.5 crore, up 2.5x
What should Investors do?

Varun Beverage’s share price has given 6.3x return (from ₹ 195 in February 2018 to ₹ 1221 in February 2023).           

  • We estimate 10% volume CAGR & sustainable operating margins above 21%. This would lead to earning CAGR of 12.1% between CY22-24E 
  • We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock 
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1340, valuing the business at 45x CY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • VBL has seen 15% organic volume growth in last three years led by distribution expansion in underpenetrated territories and new launches (Sting, Milk based beverages etc). We expect volume growth to moderate to 10% level in next two years
  • It is setting up two new plants in Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh along with brownfield expansion in six other plants, which would enhance its capacity by 20-25%. This would entail capex of ₹ 1500 crore.
  • The growth in newer brands like ‘Sting’ & milk-based beverages growing at faster pace, supporting overall volume growth. Energy drink ‘Sting’ contributing 9.6% to the overall volumes in CY22.
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 on ascribing 52x FY25 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 5 Year CAGR (CY17- CY22) CY23E CY24E CAGR (CY22-24E)
Net Sales 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 13,173.1 26.9 14,558.6 16,263.8 0.1
EBITDA 1,447.7 1,201.9 1,654.6 2,788.1 27.2 3,105.3 3,478.2 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 20.3 18.6 18.8 21.2 - 21.3 21.4 -
Net Profit 472.2 362.1 746.1 1,550.1 48.6 1,692.2 1,946.5 0.1
Diluted EPS (|) 7.3 5.6 11.5 23.9 15.3 26.1 30.0 0.1
P/E 167.9 219.0 106.3 51.2 - 46.9 40.7 -
RoNW % 14.2 10.3 18.3 30.4 - 26.6 25.5 -
RoCE (%) 15.5 10.9 17.1 23.8 - 27.2 30.6 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4CY22 Results: New products (Sting, Dairy products) & distribution expansion resulting in high growth…

  • Revenue witnessed a growth of 27.7% to | 2214.2 crore led by 17.8% volume growth & 6% realisation growth during the quarter. Consolidate sales volumes & average realisation stands at 132 million cases & | 164 per case respectively in Q4CY22.

 

  • Carbonated soft drinks (CSD), Juices & Water accounts for 65%, 5% & 30% of the total volumes for the company in Q4 where their contribution in CY22 was 70%, 7% & 23% respectively.

 

  • Distribution network expansion to 3 million retail outlets along with robust demand conditions due to increased mobility after two years of Covid disruption led to the strong growth in volumes throughout the year.

 

  • Energy drink ‘String’ witnessed stupendous growth in CY22. It contributed 16% to volumes in Q4CY22 & 9.6% in CY22. The company expects to maintain growth momentum in ‘Sting’ along with volume uptick in its dairy based products in CY23

 

  • Energy drink products have been contributing 10-15% to the beverage market in emerging markets. With the availability of product at lower price points in last five years has led to multi-fold growth

 

  • The realisation growth of 6% was led by selective price increases & rationalisation of trade discounts. Single serve gross as well as operating margins are better than multi-serve SKUs. Given ‘Sting’ largely sold in smaller pack, higher growth in the brand aided realisation growth

 

  • Varun Beverages Morocco SA (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company) started distribution & selling of PepsiCo’s snack products namely “Lays, Doritos and Cheetos” in the territory of Morocco. However, it is unlikely to get manufacturing & distribution of Snacks products in India from PepsiCo

 

  • The company has started pre-stocking of raw material as well initiated brownfield capacity addition much earlier (November-December) this year as it doesn’t want to go out of stock in any of its line in peak summer season (March-June). PET resin prices are generally lower in November-December. Early Procurement of key raw materials could safeguard it from peak volatility

 

  • The company expanded its distribution reach to 3.0 million outlets. It would increase its reach by 10-15% every year. Distribution network would be enhanced to 3.5 million outlets by end of 2023. Visi coolers, trucks & related capacities would be added proportionally 

 

  • Dairy product national rollout is only possible by 2024 given new dairy capacities would come on stream by end of this year. The company is enhancing its dairy product capacity by 3x. Sourcing of milk & other raw material would not be a problem for the company

 

  • South & Western territories (Acquired in 2019) are important & given season in south starts in February, it is important to add capacities earlier now

 

  • Gross margins expanded by 91 bps in Q4CY22 on account of change in product mix (high contribution of ‘Sting’) & softening of PET resins prices.

 

  • Employee & overhead spends were lower by 53 bps & 48 bps respectively. This led to operating profit growth of 48.1% to | 307.5 crore with operating margin expansion of 192 bps to 13.9%. Despite higher interest cost & depreciation provisioning, net profit jumped to | 81.5 crore in Q4CY22 compared to |32.6 crore in corresponding quarter.

 

  • The company would be undertaking capex of | 1500 crore in CY23, which includes two greenfield plants in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & brownfield expansion in six plants in India.

 

  • Net debt for the company increased to | 3409.6 crore in December 2022 compared to | 3005.3 crore in December 2021 mainly due company’s capex plan in CY23. The debt levels would go down in H1CY23 with repayment of debt through large cash flows. Hence interest levels are likely to remain at similar level of CY22

 

  • The company declared a final dividend of |1/share. Total dividend for the year is |3.5 / share. Total outflow for dividend pay-out is |227.2 crore in CY22.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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