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  • CMP : 471.5 Chg : -5.70 (-1.19%)
  • Target : 1,235.0 (11.56%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

01 Nov 2022

Impressive volume growth continues in CY22…

About The Stock

Varun Beverage (VBL) is one of the largest franchisees of PepsiCo in the world. The company produces & distributes carbonated drinks, juices & packaged drinking water in six countries including India.      Some of the PepsiCo brands produced by VBL include Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, Nimbooz, String, Slice, Tropicana, Aquafina among others.

  • The company has operations in India (except Andhra Pradesh, J&K & Ladakh), Sri Lanka, Nepal, Morocco, Zambia and Zimbabwe
Q3CY22 Results

Varun Beverages witnessed robust volume growth of 24%.

  • Sales were up 32.5% YoY led by low base and strong growth in underpenetrated territories
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 699 crore, up 41.3% YoY, with margins at 22%
  • Consequent PAT grew 53.3% to ₹ 395.5 crore
What should Investors do?

Varun Beverage’s share price has given 7.3x return (from ₹ 150 in October 2017 to ₹ 1107 in October 2022).     

  • We revise our CY22 and CY23 revenue and earnings numbers upward after robust volume growth in 9MCY22
  • Given most positives are already factored in valuation, we change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1235, valuing the business at 40x CY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The underpenetrated territories of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and acquired southern & western territories are growing to their potential after distribution expansion to 3 million outlets
  • The growth in newer brands like ‘Sting’ & milk based beverages growing at faster pace, supporting overall volume growth
  • With strong volume growth & capacity utilisation touching 90%( May), VBL is expanding its capacity by 20% with capex of ₹ 1200 crore in CY23
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Tata Consumer Products in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in India market expected to drive sales and margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 on ascribing 55x FY24 earnings multiple

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials CY19 CY20 CY21 5 Year CAGR (CY16-CY21) CY22E CY23E CY24E CAGR (CY21-24E)
Net Sales 7,129.6 6,450.1 8,823.2 18.0 12,811.0 14,461.3 16,156.5 22.3
EBITDA 1,447.7 1,201.9 1,654.6 15.8 2,728.3 3,090.4 3,458.0 27.9
EBITDA Margin % 20.3 18.6 18.8 - 21.3 21.4 21.4 -
Net Profit 472.2 362.1 746.1 73.1 1,509.2 1,689.6 1,938.1 37.5
Diluted EPS (|) 7.3 5.6 11.5 34.2 23.2 26.0 29.8 37.5
P/E 151.6 197.7 96.0 - 47.4 42.4 36.9 -
RoNW % 14.2 10.3 18.3 - 29.0 28.7 30.0 -
RoCE (%) 15.5 10.9 17.1 - 30.3 33.6 37.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3CY22 Results: Strong volume growth continues…

  • VBL witnessed growth of 32.5% to | 3176.6 crore led by 24% volume growth & 6.8% realisation growth. Consolidated sales volume and average realisation were at 190 million cases and | 167/case, respectively

 

  • India sales volume grew 22% to 148 million cases while international sales volume increased 31.3% to 42 million cases. The growth in international territories was largely driven by Morocco, which has seen very high volume growth in the water business

 

  • The higher realisation was mainly due to better product mix. VBL sold smaller SKUs of 250 ml specifically energy drink brand ‘Sting’. With strong growth in energy drinks, the contribution of Sting has been 11% in Q3CY22 and 8.5% in 9MCY22. Sting realisation is up 65% compared to CSD products

 

  • Carbonated soft drink (CSD) constitutes 70% of total volume whereas juices & water contributes 5% & 25% to total volumes, respectively

 

  • Gross margin during the quarter improved 90 bps despite raw material pressure. Though crude prices have come off from the highs, it still remains higher compared to historic averages. We believe the company would be holding low cost raw material inventory given it has procured higher raw material before the season in January-February 2022 itself

 

  • The company was able to save 130 bps (percentage to sales) through lower employee spends. However, overhead spends were up 83 bps mainly due to higher fuel prices. Operating profit witnessed growth of 41% to | 699 crore with operating margin expansion of 138 bps to 22%. Higher contribution of energy brand ‘Sting’ resulted in higher margin in Q3CY22

 

  • Lower tax provisioning due to shift in new tax regime in India along with strong revenue growth & uptick in margins led by 53.3% growth in net profit to | 395.5 crore

 

  • VBL and PepsiCo enter into an agreement to distribute & sell Lays, Doritos and Cheetos for PepsiCo’s wholly owned subsidiaries in the territory of Morocco with effect from January 2023

 

  • As per the co-manufacturing agreement dated February 28, 2022, the manufacturing plant in Kosi, Uttar Pradesh commenced trial production of Kurkure Puffcorn for PepsiCo India

 

  • VBL is continuously increasing its distribution network. Its retail reach is 3 million outlets and it is looking to increase it by 10-12% every year. Some underpenetrated territories are growing extremely fast. Bihar and MP territories are growing at 50%. The reach for ‘Sting’ brand is 2 million outlets

 

  • The company is increasing its overall capacity by 20% with a capex of
    | 1200-1300 crore in CY23. The CSD capacity addition would be completed before 2023 season. However, the second plant for juices, Sting & dairy product would only be commissioned by June 2023. VBL is doubling capacity of juices, energy drinks & dairy products through this second plant

 

  • The current debt is at | 2300 crore (reduction of | 700 crore in CY22)

 

  • On the raw material front, PET resins prices have started softening, which would be reflected in margin, going forward. The company would be aiming to achieve and maintain 21% operating margins

 

  • With the shift to the new tax regime in India, the blended tax rate is likely to come down to 23%. We have estimated the same for CY23E and CY24E

  • The company is witnessing a favourable demand scenario after two years of Covid-19 disruption. Further, out of home consumption is outpacing pre-Covid levels

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