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V-Mart Retail Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,188.3 Chg : 5.30 (0.24%)
  • Target : 2,560.0 (-3.03%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Feb 2023

Incremental capital deployment to be RoE dilutive

About The Stock

V-Mart, having over the years built its fortress in non-tier I cities, is well poised to capture market share in the growing ~₹ 2.5 trillion value fashion industry. The company enjoys strong moats that would provide an edge over increasing competition in tier III-IV regions.

  • V-Mart follows a cluster based approach of adding stores within a radius of 50-100 km. This gives it better economies of scales, supply chain efficiencies and better understanding of fashion needs of the specific region
Q3FY23 Results:

V-Mart reported a subdued operational performance with significantly higher operating expenses impacting profitability.

  • Revenue for the quarter grew 12% YoY to ₹ 776.9 crore, with Unlimited format (17% of sales) registering 12% sales growth. Revenue per store for V-Mart business continues to lag pre-Covid levels (down 15%) at ₹ 1.9 crore
  • Bloated operating expenses came in as a negative surprise, which led to significant miss on the EBITDA front. Employee and other expenses increased significantly by ~₹ 41 crore QoQ (up 31%) mainly owing to integration of LimeRoad division (~₹ 36 crore of which ₹ 12 crore is one-off)
  • Subsequently, EBITDA margins contracted 620 bps YoY to 13.3% (excluding the LimeRoad integrations, the margins would have been ~17%)
What should Investors do?

V-Mart has been a consistent compounder with stock price appreciating at 18% CAGR in the last five years. However, the stock has been under pressure on YTD basis (down 25%) as higher inflation is pinching consumer spending especially for people salaried < ₹ 25000 (its main target consumers). Also heightened competition from large retailers in Tier III/IV cities is exerting pressure. We expect RoIC for the company to be below historical levels as incremental cashflows generated by the legacy business would be deployed towards new initiatives (such as LimeRoad that would need 20% of V-Mart’s EBITDA), which would be margin dilutive.

  • Hence, we downgrade from BUY to HOLD and await material recovery in same stores sales growth
Target Price and Valuation

We value V-Mart at ₹ 2560 i.e. 13x FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Recent acquisition of ‘Unlimited’ store brand (77 stores) will enable V-Mart to cater to the fashion needs in western and southern markets of India (where V-Mart has minimal presence)
  • We expect total retail space to increase at ~14% CAGR in FY22-24E with total area of 4.3 million square feet by FY24E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from V-Mart, in our retail coverage we like Trent.

  • Inherent strength of brands (Westside, Zudio, Zara) and proven business model position Trent as a key beneficiary of economy unlock theme
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1730/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 1,433.7 1,662.0 1,075.5 1,666.2 11.0 2,438.3 2,926.4 32.5
EBITDA 132.9 213.7 131.2 204.3 - 308.9 377.6 35.9
PAT 61.6 49.3 -6.2 11.6 - 28.1 68.0 -
P/E (x) 77.7 97.2
EV/Sales (x) 3.3 2.9 4.4 3.0 - 2.2 1.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 35.4 22.4 36.4 24.7 - 17.0 14.0 -
RoCE (%) 27.2 27.0 6.0 10.3 - 14.9 19.2 -
RoE (%) 15.0 10.7 -0.8 1.4 - 3.2 7.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter grew 12% YoY to | 776.9 crore (I-direct estimate:
    | 823 crore). Revenue from Unlimited format (17% of revenues) grew 12% YoY to | 132.0 crore. Store addition was healthy during the quarter as the company added nine new stores taking the total store count to 414. The average ASP for apparels declined 1% YoY to | 500 but was up 15% compared to pre-Covid levels. V-Marts operating metrics over the past couple of quarters has been turbulent owing to higher inflationary stress on lower price point discretionary categories. Despite 15% higher realisations than pre-Covid levels, revenue per store for V-Mart was at 85% of pre-Covid levels. Footfalls have increased 13% YoY but conversion ratio declined ~600 bps YoY to 55%
  • Employee and other expenses increased significantly by ~| 41 crore QoQ (up 31%) mainly owing to integration of LimeRoad division (~| 36 crore of which | 12 crore is one-off). The company has completed integration of “LimeRoad” (D2C website) in November 2022 which is expected to strengthen its e-commerce channel. The aforesaid investment would pressurise margins as the segment would entail investments in the initial phase. The company highlighted it would spend ~15-20% EBITDA of V-Mart to scale up the business
  • Higher operating expenses resulted in EBITDA margins declining 620 bps YoY to 13.3% (I-direct estimate: 18.3%). Absolute EBITDA declined 23% YoY to | 103.7 crore
  • V-Mart is gradually changing the product portfolio of ‘Unlimited’ stores and is introducing V-mart products in these stores. The new stores added in southern region (about six new Unlimited stores) have yielded healthy revenue/square feet of | 700/month that is 20-30% higher than legacy stores. However, the acquired 74 stores are continuing to underperform
  • Factoring in Q3FY23 performance, we trim our EBITDA estimates for FY23, FY24E by 12%, 8%, respectively. Expect RoE to gradually improve to 8% by FY24E but significantly below FY19 levels (~15%)

Q3FY23 conference call highlights

  • The management indicated the consumer and inflation perspective was not positive for the value retail industry in Q3FY23. However, Inflation has been trending down and consumer confidence is gradually inching up with mass consumers returning back. Footfalls have increased YoY but conversion rate is down. The management highlighted that the decline in conversion rate was owing to a high conversion rate during the pandemic when customers used to visit stores for focused product purchases. Also the management said the value retail was showing signs a gradual recovery and reduction in price in certain categories was gradually showing positive results
  • The like to like growth (LTL) for the company was at 1% during Q3FY23 with both V-mart and Unlimited witnessing positive LTL growth. The performance during Q3FY23 was also impacted by delayed winter, which led to lower traction in winter wear sales
  • The company is currently carrying an inventory of 106 days, which is higher than the normal average (due to winter wear inventory and addition of new categories of products for Unlimited). The company expects to bring it down to 90 days in the ensuing quarters
  • The management highlighted that margins in the next few quarters are expected to be under pressure as the company desires to provide more value to customers to woo them back to the stores
  • On the Lime road acquisition front, the management highlighted that the business is being integrated with V-Mart. The company is facing initial teething issues with respect to the integration. Also, the management is in the process of getting the name change done in respective agreements with various vendors, etc. Further, the vendors are coming back on the market place with old vendors who had left are rejoining the market place. The revenue stream for LimeRoad is in terms of commission earned from sellers on the online platform
  • The management indicated that its setting up of warehouse was progressing as per schedule. The company expects it to be operational by end of March 2023. It expects the warehouse to improve its operational efficiency and improve inventory turnaround time
  • On the store opening front, the management highlighted that it had opened 40 stores in YTD FY23 and is planning to add 15-20 stores in Q4FY23 with some stores to be opened in south India

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Bharat Chhoda, MBA, Cheragh Sidhwa, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

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Buy: >15%

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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