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  • CMP : 330.0 Chg : 3.50 (1.07%)
  • Target : 255.0 (13.84%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 May 2022

High RM costs drags EBITDA margin

About The Stock

V-Guard is among India’s leading fast moving consumer electrical goods companies with market leadership position in the stabiliser business.

  • The company has a wide portfolio of products ranging from switchgears, water heaters, stabilisers, fans and many more
  • V-Guard has maintained strong return ratios with RoE and RoCE at ~18% and ~24%, respectively (three year’s average)
Q4FY22 Results

Electricals and consumer durable segments drive topline growth but higher raw material costs drag EBITDA margins

  • Revenue growth of ~24% YoY to ₹ 1058 crore in Q4 was led by 33% & 32% growth in electrical and consumer durable segments, respectively
  • EBITDA margin declined 242 bps YoY to 10.5% due to higher RM costs

Lower EBITDA margin resulted in flattish PBT of ~₹ 10 crore in Q4. However, PAT was up by 31% YoY to ~₹ 90 crore supported by lower tax outgo

What should Investors do?

V-Guard’s share price has given return of 18.5% in the past five years (from ~₹ 189 in May 2017 to ~₹ 224 levels in May 2022).

We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD

Target Price & Valuation

We value V-Guard at ₹ 255 i.e. 38x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Expansion in non-south regions (revenue contribution increased from 37% in FY18 to 41.7% in FY22) and government housing thrust (to build 1.3 crore new houses under PMAY) will be key growth driver for V-Guard
  • New product launches in the consumer durable category

Plan to increase in-house manufacturing from current 55% to 60%, which will help the company to improve profitability

Alternate Stock Idea

We like Polycab in the same space.

  • Polycab is a leader in the wire & cable industry with organised market share of ~24%. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2850

Key Financial Summary

(Rs# Crore) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 2,594.0 2,502.9 2,721.2 3,498.2 10.9 4,050.1 4,439.9 12.7
EBITDA 224.3 258.0 312.1 338.2 10.1 360.5 440.9 14.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 10.3 11.5 9.7 - 8.9 9.9 -
PAT 168.1 188.3 201.9 228.4 9.6 234.9 286.2 11.9
EPS (|) 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 - 5.4 6.6 -
P/E(x) 56.7 50.8 47.5 42.0 - 41.2 33.8 -
Price /Book Value (x) 10.6 9.6 7.9 6.8 - 7.4 6.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 42.1 36.7 29.9 28.2 - 26.5 21.6 -
RoE (%) 18.7 18.9 16.7 16.2 - 18.0 20.0 -
RoCE (%) 24.1 25.1 23.9 21.2 - 23.7 26.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results:

  • Strong revenue growth of ~24% YoY ~| 1058 crore led by ~14% price hike. The volume growth was ~ 9% YoY led by strong demand of kitchen appliances and market share gains in the water heater segment
  • The electrical segment revenue grew 33% YoY to | 515 crore in Q4FY22 supported by price hike of ~30% in the wire & cable segments. The consumer durables (CD) segment revenues increased by 32% YoY to
    ~| 296 crore supported by strong demand of water heater, fan and kitchen appliances. However, electronic segment revenue grew albeit a slow pace of ~2% YoY to | 247 crore in Q4FY22. This was mainly due to lower demand of stabilisers
  • Geography wise, both south and non-south regions revenue increased ~25% and ~22% YoY to | 599 crore and | 451 crore, respectively
  • Delay in price hikes in the consumer durable categories and lower sales contribution of premium water heater segments led the decline in gross margin by 263 bps YoY. As a result, EBITDA margin was down 242 bps              YoY to 10.5%

Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand outlook:
    •               The company has regained its lost market share in the consumer durables segment, mainly for its water heaters and fans category due to adequate supply. The company sees a strong demand for fans due to strong summer and enough capacity churned from its Uttarakhand factory
    •               V-Guard’s 50-60% product portfolio is dominated by summer related products
    • Revival of construction industry and housing demand is a key driver for growth in demand of the company’s electrical segment (largely ‘wires’)
    •               Even though demand for consumer durables and electrical is strong, demand for the company’s electronics segment consisting of inverters and stabilisers is weak due to seasonality. Electronics segment grew slowly at ~2% YoY in Q4. According to the management, the demand in this area has slightly picked up starting from April 2022 due to frequent summer time power cuts in in several areas
    •               The company has invested ~| 60 crore in its subsidiary, VCPL to set up a plant for manufacturing inverters and stabilisers. Full range of products from this plant will be available from August 2022 leading to a better supply of these products. However, profit generation from V-Guard consumer products will not be immediate
    •               Regionally, due to continuing summer, demand is higher in North and West regions of the country and lower in South and East due to unseasonal rains
    •               Going forward, the company’s focus is on enhancing product capability, market accessibility and increasing portfolio competitiveness
  • Margins:
    •               According to the management, margins are expected to be driven by volume growth, pricing actions and better fixed cost absorption in FY23E
    • Constant volatility in raw material prices has affected the margins. The company has taken cumulative price hikes of ~10% in FY22 across its product categories except for wires. It has taken ~35% price hikes in the wire category. Margins are expected to stabilise with the flattening of raw material prices
  • Capex: Planned capex of | 200 crore in the next three years
  • Tax rate: 25.2% for FY23-24
  • Others:
    • The company was dependent on China for imports three years ago but manufacturing set up at Sikkim is producing 70% of its capacity and is expected to rise to ~85% in FY23E
    • The company will receive supply of innovative battery solutions through its stake in Gegadyne Energy Labs from August 2022 onwards
    • Stabilisation of supply-chain is expected to bring down the inventory levels
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comment
Revenue 1,058.2 898.4 855.2 23.7 967.4 9.4   Strong topline growth was led by ~14% price hike. The volume grew by ~9% YoY
Other Income 3.6 4.1 3.9 -7.5 2.7 35.3    
                 
Raw Material Exp 749.9 627.3 583.5 28.5 666.0 12.6   Delay in price hike and change in product mix led to 263 bps YoY dip in gross margin
Employee Exp 65.2 72.8 57.5 13.4 75.5       (13.7)    
Advertisement Exp 12.7 18.0 15.0 -15.3 11.6 9.4    
Other Exp 119.4 95.8 88.8 34.5 127.4 -6.3   Higher fixed cost associated with opening of new plants led to higher other expenses 
                 
EBITDA 111.0 84.5 110.4 0.6 86.8 27.9    
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 9.4 12.9 -242 bps 9.0 152 bps   Higher raw material costs and spike in other expenses drags EBITDA margins
Depreciation 12.9 13.8 12.0 7.8 13.8 -6.3    
Interest 1.8 1.6 2.6 -31.5 1.5 17.4    
                 
PBT 100.0 73.2 99.8 0.2 74.2 34.8   Sharp decline in EBITDA margin drags overall PBT
Total Tax 10.4 20.2 31.4 -66.8 20.3 -48.6    
PAT 89.6 53.0 68.4 31.0 53.9 66.1    
                 
Key Metrics                
Electronics 247.1 235.2 242.8 1.8 199.9 23.6   Lower sales of seasonal products during the start of the quarter amid fear of pandemic led disruptions
Electricals 515.2 432.4 388.7 32.5 429.2 20.1   sharp price hikes helped drive revenue growth in electricals segments
Consumer Durable 295.9 230.8 224.0 32.1 338.4 -12.6   Favourable base, strong growth in the water heater and small kitchen appliances segment  drives topline

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