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V-Guard Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 342.4 Chg : 1.55 (0.45%)
  • Target : 0.0 (-100.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Jul 2022

Strong topline growth; Inventory loss drags margin

About The Stock

V-Guard is among India’s leading fast moving consumer electrical goods companies with market leadership position in the stabiliser business.

  • The company has a wide portfolio of products ranging from switchgears, water heaters, stabilisers, fans and many more
  • V-Guard has maintained strong return ratios with RoE and RoCE at ~17% and ~23%, respectively (three year’s average)
Q1FY23 Results

Strong topline growth on a favourable base; inventory loss drags EBITDA margin

  • V-guard reported strong revenue growth of ~80% YoY to ₹ 1018 crore on a favourable base. On a three-year basis, revenue grew at CAGR of 13% led by strong growth in the consumer durable segment
  • The gross margin declined by 366 bps YoY due to inventory losses. EBITDA margin came in at 8.1% (flat YoY) supported by better operating leverage
  • PAT increased 2.1x YoY to ₹ 53 crore; tracking higher sales 
What should Investors do?

V-Guard’s share price has given return of 26.5% in the past five years (from ~₹ 177 in July 2017 to ~₹ 224 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value V-Guard at ₹ 255 i.e. 38x P/E on FY24E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Expansion in non-south regions (revenue contribution increased from 37% in FY18 to 41.7% in FY22) and government housing thrust (to build 1.3 crore new houses under PMAY) will be key growth driver for V-Guard
  • New product launches in the consumer durable category
  • Plan to increase in-house manufacturing from current 55% to 60%, which will help the company to improve profitability
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Polycab India in our coverage.

Polycab is the market leader in the wire & cable business with organised market share of 22%-24%. In the FMEG segment, it is growing through new product launches and dealer addition across India. Robust b/s with a 3-year average RoE, RoCE of 18%, 22%, respectively

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2680

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 2,594.0 2,502.9 2,721.2 3,498.2 10.9 4,011.6 4,379.3 11.9
EBITDA 224.3 258.0 312.1 338.2 10.1 356.1 442.0 14.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 10.3 11.5 9.7 - 8.9 10.1 -
PAT 168.1 188.3 201.9 228.4 9.6 233.1 291.5 13.0
EPS (|) 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 - 5.4 6.8 -
P/E(x) 56.7 50.8 47.5 42.0 - 41.5 33.2 -
Price /Book Value (x) 10.6 9.6 7.9 6.8 - 7.4 6.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 42.1 36.7 29.9 28.2 - 26.9 21.5 -
RoE (%) 18.7 18.9 16.7 16.2 - 17.9 20.3 -
RoCE (%) 24.1 25.1 23.9 21.2 - 23.7 26.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Consumer durable segment drives topline

  • V-Guard’s product portfolio is dominated by summer related products with 50-60% share. Favourable base and strong demand of V-guard’s summer related products drove the company’s overall sales in Q1FY23. V-guard reported revenue growth of 80% YoY to | 1018 crore in Q1FY23; led by 2x growth in consumer durable segments to | 299 crore. On a three-year basis, revenue grew at CAGR of 13% led by 25% CAGR in the consumer durable segment
  • The Electronic segment (~30% of topline) grew 91% YoY to ~| 303 crore on a favourable base of Q1FY22 and recovery in stabiliser demand. However, on a three year CAGR basis, the revenue growth remained tepid at 3% due to slower offtake in digital UPS volumes. The Electrical segment (41% of topline) revenues increased by 62% led by wire & cable and modular switch segments, however pump demand remained weak due to sharp increase in product price.
  • Geography wise, both south and non-south regions revenue increased ~68% and ~96% YoY to | 536 crore and | 474 crore, respectively
  • The gross margins declined ~366 bps YoY to 30% mainly due to inventory losses in the wire segment. The company has incurred inventory losses of | 10 crore in the month of June’22 due to sharp fall in the copper price. V-guard has taken price hike of ~3% to offset increase in other raw material costs. Despite lower gross margin, the EBITDA margin came in at 8.1% (Flat on a YoY basis) due to savings in employee costs and other costs

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

Demand outlook:

  • V-guard’s stabilizers category is a largely matured with ~45% organized market share. Hence the growth for stabilizers will be limited to the category growth and market share gains from unorganized segments
  • The Digital UPS industry is pegged at | 12000 crore with V-guard’s market share of ~3% in the organized segments. The company aims to gain market share in future through capacity additions  
  • V-Guard has completed the balance 26% acquisition of a company that manufactures switchgears to support the growth of its switchgears business and meet the supply. The management expects its switch and switchgears category to grow higher than the overall topline growth supported by new product launches and dealer expansion   
  • The 50% of Fan revenue is from premium product range. The company will focus on gaining market share through expansion in non-south regions 
  • In the water heaters segment, the company lost some market share in FY21 which it regained in FY22 and now the company is trying to build on the market share for water heaters in FY23 
  • The pumps business of the company has been adversely impacted by higher input prices. The company is yet to pass on some price increases for this segment. However, with prices of commodities like iron, steel and copper coming down, the management expects a rise in the volumes of pumps
  • The company has a limited presence in the Built-in Kitchen category with products such as chimney and hobs. The distribution largely happens through e-com platform
  • The management has reiterated its long term volume growth target at 15% 
  • The company has targeted to add ~4000 retailers every year 

Margins:  

  • The company has taken ~2.5% price hike in Q1FY23 
  • The EBITDA margin has been affected by significant drop in copper prices and the management expects to see some impact in Q2FY23 as well. In June’22, the company wrote of ~₹10 crore as a result of drop in copper prices which affected the Q1FY23 EBITDA margin by 1% 
  • The management expects the gross margin to normalize to pre-covid level at ~32% by Q3FY23 when they will be able to take the advantage of lower raw material prices 
  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comment
Revenue 1,018.3 842.2 565.2 80.2 1,058.2 -3.8   Favourable base and strong demand summer related products drive topline growth
Other Income 5.1 5.1 3.9 32.1 3.6 40.5    
                 
Raw Material Exp 712.9 576.0 375.0 90.1 749.9 -4.9   Gross margin declined ~366 bps YoY due to inventory losses in the wire segment
Employee Exp 78.9 67.4 58.1 35.8 65.2         21.0    
Advertisement Exp 21.4 18.5 14.1 51.3 12.7 68.4    
Other Exp 123.2 101.1 72.5 69.8 119.4 3.2    
                 
EBITDA 82.0 79.2 45.5 80.2 111.0 -26.1    
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.1 9.4 8.1 0 bps 10.5 -244 bps   Savings in employee cost and other expenses offset the negative impact of inventory losses in Q1FY23
Depreciation 13.7 13.6 11.3 21.6 12.9 5.9    
Interest 1.8 0.3 1.5 16.8 1.8 2.3    
                 
PBT 71.7 70.3 36.6 95.8 100.0 -28.3    
Total Tax 18.3 17.6 11.1 65.4 10.4 75.7    
PAT 53.4 52.7 25.5 109.0 89.6 -40.4   PAT growth is largely tracking strong sales growth in Q1FY23
                 
Key Metrics                
Electronics 303.4 317.8 159.0 90.8 247.1 22.8   Favourable base and strong summer demand drive sales of stabiliser segment revenue
Electricals 415.9 327.3 256.5 62.1 515.2 -19.3   sharp price hikes helped drive revenue growth in electricals segments
Consumer Durable 299.1 197.1 149.7 99.7 295.9 1.1   Favourable base, strong growth in the fan and small kitchen appliances segment  drives topline

Disclaimer

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