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  • CMP : 1,268.6 Chg : 42.0 (3.42%)
  • Target : 630.0 (23.53%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Feb 2023

Healthy performance with strong future prospects…

About The Stock

Uno Minda (erstwhile Minda Industries, MIL) is India’s largest maker of automotive switches, horns, seats & PV alloy wheels and third largest automotive lighting player.

  • FY22 segment mix – 4-W 53%, 2-W 47%; switches, lighting, castings, horns and seats comprised 30%, 21%, 16%, 8% and 11% of sales, respectively
  • History of vast outperformance vs. user industries riding on growth in kit value, new client and product additions & inorganic acquisitions
Q3FY23

The company posted healthy Q3FY23 results.

  • Consolidated revenues stood at ₹ 2,916 crore, up 1.3% QoQ. This is encouraging amid domestic OEM volumes down double digit on QoQ basis
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 11.6%, up 54 bps QoQ  
  • Consolidated PAT in Q3FY23 stood at ₹162 crore down 4.8% QoQ.
What should Investors do?

MIL’s stock price has grown ~22% CAGR over past 5 years (~₹183 levels in Feb 2018), thereby vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY rating on MIL tracking upbeat management commentary and company’s penchant to grow ahead of industry amidst consistent focus on increase in content/vehicle and import substitution products in the EV space 
Target Price and Valuation

Introducing FY25E and rolling over our valuations, we now value the company at ₹630 i.e., 34x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹18.6/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Riding on new client addition in 2W/4W space, new product offerings, leveraging existing client base, focus on premiumisation, expanded capacity and penchant to grow ahead of industry we expect sales at the company to grow at 22.3% CAGR over FY22-25E (much ahead of industry).
  • Largely EV immune product profile with EV order book established at peak yearly revenue run-rate of ₹1,000 crore+ with 50% EV specialised items.
  • Higher than expected rise in content per vehicle amidst electrification and regulation led mandatory offerings (i.e., airbags & AVAS).
  • Mix, operating leverage to push margins, RoCE to 12.2%, ~20% by FY25E
  • B/s strength, with FY22 debt: equity at 0.2x amid positive CFO generation.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides MIL, in our auto coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 6,222.0 6,373.7 8,313.0 19.1 11,407.1 13,379.3 15,219.9 22.3
EBITDA 671.8 725.0 885.4 18.2 1,289.4 1,605.5 1,849.2 27.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 10.8 11.4 10.7 - 11.3 12.0 12.2 -
Net Profit 155.2 206.6 355.8 16.2 656.1 894.2 1,062.0 44.0
EPS (₹) 2.7 3.6 6.2 - 11.5 15.6 18.6 -
P/E 187.9 141.1 82.0 - 44.4 32.6 27.5 -
RoNW (%) 8.3 9.2 10.3 - 16.3 18.4 18.2 -
RoCE (%) 9.3 9.1 10.2 - 15.2 18.0 19.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY22 Results

 

  • Consolidated revenues for the quarter came in at | 2,916 crore (up 13% QoQ). Sequential topline growth was primarily led by other segment wherein revenues grew 20% QoQ to ₹427 crore (led by blow moulding sub-segment) & switches space wherein revenues grew 2% QoQ to ₹815 crores
  • Consolidated EBITDA for Q3FY23 stood at | 338 crore with attendant margins at 11.6%, up 54 bps QoQ. Gross margin expanded by healthy 164 bps QoQ however was offset by higher other expense which was up 105 bps QoQ at 12.4% of sales (on account of higher gas prices).
  • Reported consolidated PAT for the quarter stood at | 162 crore, down 4.8% QoQ aided by higher topline and margin profile on sequential basis.
  • Company has also declared the interim dividend of ₹0.50 per equity share.

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During Q3FY23 MIL executed JV agreement with Buehler Motors and Tachi-S and has already received orders from 2W EV OEM for motors. Also, it won incremental order with annual peak value of |300 Crores comprising of Off board charger, Motor controllers, BMS and DC-DC Converters.
  • During Q3FY23 company outran underlying industry which de-grew sequentially considering festival related growth that was captured in Q2FY23 itself & annual plant maintenance related shutdowns. Company expects 2W demand to witness good traction tracking healthy monsoon & positive rural sentiments.
  • In switches division during Q3FY23 company received incremental export order from north American OEM for heated grips and switches and it also won 4W switched business with Korean car maker with approximate annual revenue of ~|40 crores.
  • Management informed about margins in alloy wheel business to be impacted due to high gas prices which still are at elevated levels.
  • Company informed about ramping up its lighting plant in Gujarat dominantly cratering to Suzuki motor plant in Gujarat.
  • Casting division saw some minor setback during quarter predominantly tracking muted wholesale production for the quarter.
  • Capex guidance for FY23E stands in the range of ~₹600 crore excluding |175 crore of capex to be done in TG Minda for expanding airbag production equipment’s with slated commissioning expected in December 2024.
  • Net debt stood at |683 crores as of Dec’22 end vs ~|570 as at FY22 end. Rise is primarily due to increase in sales, working capital need & capex.
  • Management informed about UV mix improving steadily & greater demand for luxury vehicles in India to aid content per vehicle increase.

    During Auto Expo 2023 company showcased futuristic technologies in all domain which were well appreciated by OEMs as well as media.

    During the quarter company out ran industry with ~34% YoY growth vs 5% volume growth at industry level.

    Company is in process of setting up separate line for cameras with healthy order book in place.

    Management informed about purchasing residual stake in Minda Kosei (22.64% stake for 115.5 crore) & incurring ~|175 crores of capex in TG Minda for airbag manufacturing equipment with potential revenue generating capacity of ~|350 crores (i.e., 2x asset turns). Further management informed about ~|250 crore orders from OEMs for upcoming mandatory airbed regulation (October 2023).

    Company maintains its endeavour to attain 11-12% EBITDA margin.

     

Disclaimer

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