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  • CMP : 1,257.0 Chg : 17.60 (1.42%)
  • Target : 650.0 (18.18%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

18 Nov 2022

Healthy performance, strong growth lies ahead…

About The Stock

Uno Minda (erstwhile Minda Industries, MIL) is India’s largest maker of automotive switches, horns, seats & PV alloy wheels and third largest automotive lighting player.

  • FY22 segment mix – 4-W 53%, 2-W 47%; switches, lighting, castings, horns and seats comprised 30%, 21%, 16%, 8% and 11% of sales, respectively
  • History of vast outperformance vs. user industries riding on growth in kit value, new client and product additions & inorganic acquisitions
Q2FY23

The company posted healthy Q2FY23 results.

  • Consolidated revenues stood at ₹ 2,877 crore, up 12.6% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 11.1%, up 66 bps QoQ  
  • Consolidated PAT in Q2FY23 stood at ₹170 crore up 22.6% QoQ.
What should Investors do?

MIL’s has been one of our early finds with stock price nearly 4x since our initiation in April 2020, vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto index.

  • We retain BUY rating on the stock amidst robust demand outlook in the PV domain, consistent work on increase in content/vehicle and capabilities in developing import substitution products in the EV space 
Target Price and Valuation

Upgrading our estimates, we now value the company at unchanged target price of ₹650 i.e. 45x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹14.4/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Riding on new client addition in 2W/4W space, new product offerings, leveraging existing client base, focus on premiumisation, expanded capacity and penchant to grow ahead of industry we expect sales at the company to grow at 22.1% CAGR over FY22-24E (much ahead of industry).
  • Largely EV immune product profile with EV order book placed at a peak annual revenue run-rate of ₹ 1,000 crore+ with ~50% EV specific products.
  • Rising content per vehicle amidst electrification, regulation led mandatory offerings (i.e. airbags & AVAS) & increasing share of new age products.
  • Mix, operating leverage to push margins, RoCE to ~12%, ~17% by FY24E
  • B/s strength, with FY22 debt: equity at 0.2x amid positive CFO generation.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides MIL, in our auto coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 5,908.1 6,222.0 6,373.7 8,313.0 19.1 10,583.4 12,399.4 22.1
EBITDA 725.2 671.8 725.0 885.4 18.2 1,163.8 1,487.9 29.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.3 10.8 11.4 10.7 - 11.0 12.0 -
Net Profit 285.6 155.2 206.6 355.8 16.2 592.7 823.0 52.1
EPS (₹) 5.0 2.7 3.6 6.2 - 10.4 14.4 -
P/E 110.1 202.6 152.2 88.4 - 53.1 38.2 -
RoNW (%) 19.0 8.3 9.2 10.3 - 14.9 17.4 -
RoCE (%) 15.7 9.3 9.1 10.2 - 13.5 16.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q2FY22 Results

  • Consolidated revenues for the quarter came in at | 2,877 crore (up 12.6% QoQ). Sequential topline growth was primarily led by lighting segment wherein revenues grew 13% QoQ to ₹659 crore & Light Metal Technologies segment wherein revenues grew 27% QoQ to ₹614 crores
  • Consolidated EBITDA for Q2FY23 stood at | 318.4 crore with attendant margins at 11.1%, up 66 bps QoQ. Gross margin remained flat QoQ with savings realised under employee costs which were down ~66 bps on QoQ basis at 12.7% of sales. MIL largely realised operating leverage benefits.
  • Reported consolidated PAT for the quarter stood at | 170 crore, up 22.6% QoQ aided by QoQ topline growth & higher EBITDA margins.

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • During Q2FY23 company witnessed healthy demand traction from both 2W & PV OEMs amidst festive season. It also company informed about extension of anti-dumping duty on 4W allow wheels’ business to protect domestic business. Company expects 2W demand to witness good traction tracking healthy monsoon & positive rural sentiments.
  • During the quarter company entered into JV with Buehler for manufacturing of traction motors for 2W/3W. in first phase motors of upto 6 KwH would be made & in 2nd phase upto 9 KwH would be targeted. Also company approved setting up of new 4W lighting business with outlay of ₹240 crores in first phase with total capex for the same envisaged at ~₹ 400 crore.
  • In lighting division during Q2FY23 company received order for front fog lamps from major American OEM, also company won complete lighting order from electric 2W OEM.
  • In castings business company won order from Indian PV OEMs apart from existing 2W OEM clients & also received battery housing order.
  • Capex guidance for FY23E stands in the range of ~₹600-700 crore.
  • Allow wheel segment revenue stood at ~₹475 crores of which 2-W alloy wheel revenues stood at ~₹160 crore while 4-W alloy wheel revenues stood at ~₹320 crore.
  • With Tachi-S JV company will initially manufacture seat recliner component only but plans to develop full seating system in coming years for PV space.
  • Company maintains 11-12% EBITDA margin guidance for FY23E
  • Minda Kosei (4-W alloy wheel) margins are ~15% due to inflationary scenario and expanded base but management aspires it to be ~15-17%.
  • Management informed about energy cost impacting margins thus limiting operating leverage.

  • Company is ready to supply with airbags to OEMs as and when regulation comes into effect. Further w.r.t mandatory seatbelt management informed about requirement of vehicle alert system (AVAS) being required in coming year and same is being already produced and is in discussion with client.

  • Within lightning revenue 2W forms ~250 crores & ~200 crores by PV.

Disclaimer

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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