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  • CMP : 1,611.7 Chg : -12.80 (-0.79%)
  • Target : 1,900.0 (17.28%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Mar 2022

Already dominant market share, improves further ~200 bps

Market leader in Indian Beer market

United Breweries (UBL) is the biggest beer player in the domestic market (~54% market share), a sector largely dominated by MNCs (~85% of market).

  • On-trade sales comprise ~25% of revenues (rest 75% off-trade)
  • Heineken, one of the world’s largest beer companies, holds 72.7% stake in United Breweries
Q3FY22 results : UBL’s performance was below I-direct estimates on profitability
  • Revenues grew 23% YoY to ₹ 1581 crore, led by volume growth of 19%
  • Absolute EBITDA remained flat at ₹ 183 crore (EBITDA margins contracted 247 bps to 11%)
  •                 However, PAT grew 39% to ₹ 100 crore, as EBITDA was supported by lower depreciation, interest expense and higher other income
strong fundamentals and Premiumisation play to provide long term investment opportunity

UBL’s market share has grown from 51-52% pre-pandemic to 53-54% currently. An ₹ 800 crore bank balance        , strong supply chain (has weathered pandemic better than other players and, hence, ~200 bps market share growth), strong return ratios (RoIC above 25% in FY24E) and a long premiumisation leg to play on (currently premiumisation at mere high single digit), would provide long term growth potential to investors.

  • With the incoming beer season in Q1 and pandemic learning from previous years (inventory management), we change our stance from HOLD to BUY
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 1900 i.e. 67x P/E on FY24E EPS

Strong Fundamentals to help UBL consolidate market positioning

The alcohol sector has been dominated by liquor in India (beer encompasses mere 12% market share). However, it has a higher social quotient and is a preferred choice of ready to drink product for youth. Hence, opening up of on-trade channels remains critical for the fortunes of beer industry and to claw back its lost market share from liquor.

  • Newer beer excise regimes (lower excise than liquor), to help in market share gains for the beer sector over the liquor sector
  • Strong fundamentals (b/s, cash flow), to help UBL further consolidate its leadership position
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from UBL, we remain positive on United Spirits.

  • United Spirits (USL) manufactures, sells premium liquor brands such as Johnnie Walker, Black Dog, Black & White, Vat 69, Antiquity, Signature, Royal Challenge, McDowell’s No 1, Smirnoff and Captain Morgan

 

  • We have a BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of ₹ 1050

Key Financial Summary

Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 year CAGR
- - - -
Net Sales 6,475.4 6,509.2 4,243.1 -2.6 5,605.2 6,625.1 7,761.5 22.3
EBITDA 1,138.4 875.8 381.1 -11.3 582.9 1,053.4 1,272.9 49.5
Adjusted PAT 563.3 427.7 113.2 -17.6 283.0 613.9 748.2 87.7
P/E (x) 68.1 89.6 338.6 - 135.5 62.4 51.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.7 43.9 99.7 - 65.2 36.1 29.8 -
RoCE (%) 26.8 15.9 4.0 - 9.6 18.0 19.1 -
RoE (%) 17.7 12.2 3.2 - 7.5 14.2 15.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

| Crore Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,580.9 1,415.6 1,289.7 22.6 1,426.2 10.8   YoY volume growth at 19%, with favourable price mix
Consumption of Raw material 739.4 679.5 577.7 28.0 634.9 16.5   Lower gross margins (contracted 334 bps YoY to 50.5%) due to higher inflation in glass prices
Purchase of traded goods 51.6 0.0 17.3 198.4 53.3 -3.2    
Employee Cost 146.7 127.4 124.1 18.2 134.1 9.4    
Other Expenditure 469.6 410.5 397.2 18.2 438.3 7.1   Includes |16 crore of doubtful debtor provision
Total Expense 1,407.3 1,217.4 1,116.3 26.1 1,260.6 11.6    
EBITDA 173.6 198.2 173.5 0.1 165.6 4.8    
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.0 14.0 13.4 -246.9 11.6 -63.2   EBITDA margin lower than estimates mainly due to lower GMs and lower operating leverage
Depreciation 52.9 57.7 57.8 -8.5 55.6 -4.9    
Interest 3.7 5.2 5.3 -30.9 4.7 -22.0    
Other Income 6.0 4.1 4.6 30.7 4.6 32.7    
Exceptional item 0.0 0.0 55.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 123.0 139.4 114.9 7.0 109.8 12.0    
Total Tax 32.4 35.1 43.5 -25.5 29.1 11.3    
Reported PAT 90.6 104.3 71.4 26.9 80.6 12.3    

 

Change in Estimates :

      FY22E     FY23E   FY24E  
(| Crore) FY21 Old New % Change Old New % Change Introduced  
Revenue 4,243.1 5,280.3 5,605.2 6.2 6,908.4 6,625.1 -4.1 7,761.5  
EBITDA 381.1 760.4 582.9 -23.3 1,167.5 1,053.4 -9.8 1,272.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.0 14.4 10.4 -400 bps 16.9 15.9 -100 bps 16.4 Margins revised downwards due to higher inflation in the raw material prices in near to medium term
PAT 113.2 424.2 283.0 -33.3 702.1 613.9 -12.6 748.2  
EPS (|) 4.3 16.0 10.7 -33.1 26.6 23.2 -12.7 28.3  

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