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  • CMP : 11,540.0 Chg : 12.0 (0.10%)
  • Target : 8,000.0 (32.89%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Mar 2022

Cost pressure to stay for a while

About The Stock

Ultratech is the largest cement manufacturer in India with a domestic capacity of 114.5MT (over 23% of total market) with a leadership position in most regions (excluding East). It has grown through organic and inorganic routes and added around ~30MT of capacity in the last 3 years.

  • It has shown its capability to successfully integrate the acquired assets and ramped-up its utilisations in a profitable manner.

The co. is now focussing on fast growing market of eastern India, which accounts for 10.2MT of its total 19.6MT planned expansion over FY21-FY23E

Q3FY22 Results

Ultratech results were weak on margin front due to sharp cost escalations on power, fuel and freight front.

  • Clocked revenue of ₹12,471 crore, up 5.4% YoY, 8.0% QoQ. Domestic sales volume were at 21.9MT (down 4.1% YoY). Demand in across all regions except North remained muted due to unseasonal rains and festive season.
  • EBITDA margin was down by 707bps YoY (down 470bps QoQ) to 17.8%. EBITDA/t came in at ₹1015/t (vs. I-direct est: ₹ 1128/t)
  • PAT were higher at ₹1,632 crore, up 5.2% YoY (vs. our est: ₹1,216 crore) due to positive tax adjustments and lower interest outgo
What should Investors do?

Market leadership, strong brand with highest retail presence and robust balance sheet justifies Ultratech’s premium valuations.

  • With a target to become net debt free by FY23E and expected RoCE of 17%+, we remain positive on company and maintain BUY rating.

Target Price and Valuation: Valued at ₹8,000 i.e.19.0x FY23E EV/EBITDA

Target Price Valuation

UltraTech has successfully integrated acquired assets while protecting its B/S. Given the positive outlook, the new capex targeting central and east region would address the issue of capacity constraint post FY24E. With a target to become net debt free by FY23E and with RoCE of 17%+, we remain positive on company and maintain BUY rating with revised TP of ₹8000/share (ie 19x FY23E EV/EBITDA). 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Expect co’s capacity to increase at CAGR of ~7.4% to 131MT by FY23E as against Industry average capacity CAGR of 5.6% during the same period
  • The new organic capacities are being added at lower capital cost (US$60/t) that will help in boosting return ratios (to generate 16-18% IRR).
  • Despite capex plans, the company also targets to become net debt-free by FY23E supported by strong operating cash flows (from existing and acquired assets) and through efficient w/cap management
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Ultratech, in our cement sector coverage we also like ACC.

  • It has strong balance sheet with debt frees status. The company is focusing on cost reduction and also adding new capacities via internal accruals.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2,480/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 3 Year CAGR FY22E FY23E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 29,526.0 39,933.0 40,634.0 43,183.0 13.5 51,690.0 58,817.0 16.7
EBITDA 5,826.0 7,076.0 8,652.0 10,964.0 23.5 11,189.0 13,893.0 12.6
PAT 2,458.0 2,530.0 3,892.0 5,506.0 30.9 6,176.0 7,545.0 17.1
EV/EBITDA 39.4 34.0 27.6 21.3 - 20.7 16.3 -
EV/t ($) 387.0 303.0 301.0 299.0 - 289.0 248.0 -
RoNW 9.5 7.6 10.2 12.7 - 12.8 13.8 -
RoCE 10.0 9.0 11.4 14.6 - 13.9 17.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Recent concall Highlights

  • Domestic blended sales volumes were down 4.1% YoY to 21.9MT while blended realisations were higher by 10% YoY to |5,697/tonne, marginally up 0.8% QoQ.
  • Demand across all the regions except North remained weak during Q3 due to unseasonal rains in East/South and de-growth in infra demand in the Central region, labour availability issues and higher sand prices in West & Central region
  • Cost of production increased further by 6.9% QoQ (up 20.2% YoY) to |4682.1/t due to 19.6% QoQ (|217/t) increase in the power & fuel costs. Average fuel consumption cost were at US$ 151/t vs US$ 67/t in Q3 LY.
  • As a result, EBITDA/t declined 20.3% QoQ (down 21.3% YoY) to |1015/t (vs. I-direct est: |1128/t).
  • Demand Outlook: Strong infra pipeline of govt. across roads, metros and irrigation segment and upcoming general elections to keep demand momentum strong till FY24E. Pick-up in the urban housing, commercial real estate to fuel demand further. Current capacity utilisation stands at 85% plus vs average Q3 CU of 75%. Trade mix stood at 64% vs 67% in Q2
  • Cost of production: Although fuel prices have soften, CoP for Q4FY22E to remain higher at similar levels of Q3 due to higher crude prices. Also, ban on exports of Indonesian coal to stay in the near term that will have bearing on the coal prices. Expect meaningful softening to happen only from Q1FY24E onwards. Petcoke share now stands at 25% in the total fuel mix.
  • To focus on improving fuel blending and increasing WHRS capacity. Commissioned 19MW WHRS and 53MW of solar power. With this expansion the Company’s green energy share has gone up to 16% from 15% in Q2 which includes 156MW of WHRS and 221MW of solar power. Company has set a target to achieve green energy mix target of 34% by 2024 and 100% renewable energy by 2050.   
  • Cement Prices: Cement price hikes taken in Oct-21 rolled back fully in Nov-21 due to sudden fall in the demand. Price hikes were taken in some pockets from January onwards. At pan India levels, prices hike to be taken soon post further demand traction. 
  • Expansion: On track to reach 130.9MT by FY23E. Commissioned Bara grinding unit of 2MT, taking its total cement manufacturing capacity in India to 114.55MT. Balance capacities of 16.3MT to get commissioned in FY23E. Spent |2300 crore as of Q2, |1690 crore in Q3. Estimated capex for FY22E may cross |5000 crore vs earlier guidance of |4500 crore. Capex for FY23E including maintenance capex would be |4000 crore.
  • The board has also approved capex of |965 crore towards modernisation and expansion of capacity at Birla White from the current 6.5 LTPA to 12.53 LTPA, in a phased manner. The company is currently meeting the white cement requirements through imports. For FY22E, planned to import 2 lakh tonne of white cement.
  • BS strength: Retired |3459 crore of LT debt in Q3 through internal accruals.
  • With regards to non-core assets as a part of acquisition of Nathdwara cement, definitive agreement have been signed to sell off the business in Europe. Expect to close the transaction in the current quarter.

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