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UltraTech Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 9,816.3 Chg : -167.15 (-1.67%)
  • Target : 8,050.0 (17.52%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

23 Jan 2023

Volume growth stays healthy; realisations stay flattish

About the stock:

UltraTech is the largest cement manufacturer in India with a domestic capacity of 121.35 MT (over 23% of total market) with a leadership position in most regions (excluding East). It has grown through organic and inorganic routes and added around ~30 MT of capacity in the last three years.

  • It has shown its capability to successfully integrate the acquired assets and ramped-up its utilisations in a profitable manner
  • The company is now focusing on fast growing market of eastern India, which accounts for over one-third of 42.5 MT planned expansion over FY21-25E
Q3FY23 Results:

UltraTech Cement reported a mixed performance. While volume growth remained healthy, flat realisation led to muted recovery in the margins.

  •  Net revenues grew 20.3% YoY to ₹ 15,008 crore (vs I-direct estimate.
    ₹ 15,146 crore). It was up 11.3% QoQ
  • Cost of production declined 1.9% QoQ to ₹ 5,214/t, mainly led by lower other expenses. As a result, EBITDA/t improved 12.1% QoQ to ₹ 869/t (vs. I-direct estimate: ₹ 966/t). On a YoY basis, it declined 44.6%
  • Net profit improved sequentially by 38.4% to ₹ 994 crore though it was lower than I-direct estimated net profit of ₹ 1174 crore
What should Investors do?

Market leadership, strong brand with highest retail presence and robust balance sheet justifies Ultratech’s premium valuations.

  • The companys strategic growth plan, prudent approach in generating higher cash flows/capex while maintaining strong b/s would keep it ahead in the league. We remain positive on the company and maintain BUY rating
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 8,050 i.e.16x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Given the cement sector’s healthy long-term growth potential, the industry is likely to grow at ~8% CAGR during FY22-27
  • Expect company’s capacity to increase at a CAGR of ~10.2% to 154 MT against Industry average capacity CAGR of 7.2% over next three years
  • The new organic capacities are being added at lower capital cost (US$76/t) that will help in boosting return ratios (to generate 16-18% IRR)
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Ultratech, we also like Ambuja Cement.

  • It has a strong balance-sheet and also is one of the cost efficient player in the industry
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 610/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (%) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (%)
Net Sales (| crore) 39,933.3 40,634.2 43,188.4 50,663.5 8.3 60,963.6 70,354.1 17.8
EBITDA (| crore) 7,075.9 8,652.4 10,964.3 10,936.4 15.6 10,249.2 14,438.3 14.9
EBITDA (%) 17.7 21.3 25.4 21.6 - 16.8 20.5 -
Adjusted PAT (| crore) 2,530.0 4,447.8 5,506.1 7,066.5 40.8 5,157.1 8,335.8 8.6
EPS (|) 87.7 154.1 190.8 244.9 - 178.7 288.9 -
EV/EBITDA 29.8 24.2 18.6 18.3 - 19.5 13.6 -
EV/t ($) 270.9 268.9 222.0 218.1 - 217.5 197.6 -
RoNW (%) 7.6 11.6 12.7 14.3 - 9.7 13.9 -
RoCE (%) 9.0 11.4 14.7 14.2 - 12.4 17.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • Net revenues were marginally lower than our estimates. It grew 20.3% YoY to | 15,008 crore (vs. I-direct estimate | 15,146 crore). It grew 11.3% QoQ. Ready mix concrete (RMC) revenue grew 50% YoY

 

  • Blended sales volumes were up 12.7% YoY at 24.7MT (vs. I-direct estimate: 24.5 MT). Blended realisations were also up ~6.8% YoY to | 6,086/tonne. Grey cement volumes grew 13% YoY to 24.25 MT with capacity utilisation of 83% vs. 77% last year. Wall care putty business has a total capacity of 1.3 MT after addition of a greenfield plant in Nathdwara, Rajasthan. Premium products contributed to 18.8% of trade sales volume in Q3FY23

 

  • Cost of production increased 11.4% YoY to | 5214/t due to higher power & fuel expenses. However, on a QoQ basis, cost declined 1.9% mainly due to lower other expenses. Power & fuel and freight cost both remained higher due to utilisation of high cost inventory as well as reimposition of busy season surcharge

 

  • EBITDA/t declined 44.6% YoY to | 869/t (vs. I-direct estimate: | 966/t) while it improved 12.1% QoQ. Reported EBITDA was at | 2145 crore (vs. I-direct estimate | 2368 crore), with EBITDA margins coming in at 14.3% (down 352 bps YoY, up 156 bps QoQ) - against our margin of 15.6%

 

  • Net profit declined 39.1% YoY to | 994 crore, lower than our expected net profit of | 1,174 crore

 

  • In terms of expansion, the company Commissioned the following cement capacities in Northern and Central Indian markets: 1.9 MT integrated cement unit at Pali, Rajasthan; 1.8 MT greenfield grinding unit at Dhule, Maharashtra and brownfield integrated unit of 1.8MTat Dhar, Madhya Pradesh, taking the total grey cement capacity of the company to 121.35 MT

 

  • In the phase II, the company will be adding another 22.6 MT by FY25E that will take its total capacity close to 154 MT

 

  • The companys total WHRS capacity has got augmented to 191 MW. This is expected to increase to 250 MW by the end of FY23
 
  • The green power mix is now at 19.8%. The company is also targeting its green power mix to increase to 36% by FY25E. Net debt reduced to | 7,722 crore from | 8,357 crore in September 2022
 
Other Highlights
 
  • Demand continues to be robust. Expect capacity utilisation to go up to 95-100% in Q4FY24E. There was no significant expectation of price hikes in Q4 as the industry is looking to benefit from operating leverage. The company has commissioned 6.8 MT in 9MFY23 and expects the remaining ~10 MT to be commissioned in the next 45 days. The company is well poised to capture strong incremental demand via new capacity additions
  • Cost - Prices of energy cost of ~ | 1600-1800/t could be the new normal (historical average: | 1000/t) as no new pet coke capacities are coming up globally compared to higher cement capacity additions in India
  • Fuel inventory to be in the range of 45-50 days. Fuel cost in |/KCAL was at | 2.6 in Q3FY23 and is expected to come down by 10-12% in Q4FY23. The company continued with higher usage of pet coke in the fuel mix (at 43% vs. 25% in Q3FY22 and 40% in Q2FY22) with imported coal ratio at 46%
  • Fly ash prices are higher by ~13% YoY and 4% QoQ. The prices are expected to remain elevated on account of shutdown in power plant
  • The logistical costs were impacted to a certain extent owing to reimposition of busy season surcharge on rail freight. Despite the same, the company managed freight cost well through reduction in lead distances
  • Green power mix increased to 19.8% with WHRS capacity of 208 MW and renewable power capacity of 325 MW. The company expects to exit FY23E with WHRS capacity of 238 MW
  • Others - Revenue share of trade and non-trade was at 66%-34%. Rural mix was at 62% of trade. Clinker conversion ratio improved 1.42 in Q3FY23 vs. 1.41 in Q2FY23. The company has a long term target to reach 1.5x
  • Outlook: With peak fuel prices behind, the management expects margin curve to improve, going forward. The blended fuel prices were at US$200/t compared to US$151/t in Q3FY22. The cost has declined by 10-12% to 175-180/t and the same would be reflected from Q4FY24 onwards. Expect EBITDA/t to surpass four digit mark in Q4FY23

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Rashesh Shah CA, Cheragh Sidhwa MBA, Debotro Sinha MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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