loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 371.5 Chg : -4.60 (-1.22%)
  • Target : 380.0 (37.18%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Nov 2022

Best play in sugar industry…

About The Stock

Triveni Engineering (TEL) is one of the largest sugar companies in India with sugar crushing capacity of 60,000 TCD, distillery capacity of 660 KLD & co-generation power of 104.5 MW. It also has power transmission & waste water management business contributing 10% to revenues.

  • The company is increasing its distillery capacity from current 21 crore litre per annum to 31 crore litre per annum by FY25 to utilise B-heavy, grain & sugarcane juice route to produce ethanol
Q2FY23 Results

TEL posted 26% revenue growth led by higher sugar volumes.

  • Sales were up 26% YoY with 45.2% growth in distillery sales
  • EBITDA was muted at ₹ 45.4 crore, down 57.7% YoY, with margins at 3.4%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 24 crore, down 74.0% YoY, due to higher cost of production, one-time wage arrears & higher levy molasses obligation
What should Investors do?

TEL’s share price has gone up 3x in the last five years (from ₹ 93 in November 2017 to ₹ 277 in November 2022).

  • We expect 55.5% CAGR in distillery sales to boost earnings CAGR of 20.3% during FY22-24E
  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 380, valuing the business at 14x FY24 PE

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With distillery capex, TEL would increase its ethanol volumes from 11.8 crore litre in FY22 to 25 crore litre by FY24 & 31 crore litre in FY25. Distillery sales would contribute 34% to total revenues in the next three years
  • TEL can produce 60% of its total sugar volume as refined white sugar, which could be exported at premium given global white sugar prices are prevailing at ₹ 38-40 /kg. It received export quota of 2 lakh tonnes for 2022-23 season
  • The company is expected to generate ₹ 1588 crore of operating cash flow in the next two years, which would be utilised for ~₹ 900 crore capex (including some currently concluded), debt reduction, buybacks & dividends
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dwarikesh Sugar in our sugar coverage.

  • The company is one of the most efficient with highest sugar recovery and abundant sugarcane availability. Its distillery volumes to increase to 11 crore litres by FY24 from 5.5 crore litres in FY22
  • We value the stock at ₹ 135/share with BUY recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials F2 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income - 4,436.6 4,674.2 4,291.0 8.7 5,643.7 5,522.3 13.4
EBITDA - 543.2 558.2 634.4 4.0 761.4 926.1 20.8
EBITDA Margin % - 12.2 11.9 14.8 - 13.5 16.8 -
Adjusted Net Profit - 265.8 294.2 429.1 11.1 491.6 613.8 19.6
Adjusted EPS (|) - 13.5 12.2 17.5 12.3 86.5 28.0 26.4
P/E - 20.5 22.7 15.8 - 3.2 9.9 -
RoNW % - 19.9 18.9 22.4 - 17.6 20.4 -
RoCE (%) - 17.6 19.4 15.8 - 20.7 24.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q2      Y23 Results: Distillery volume to grow to 31 crore litres by FY25, higher refined & liquid sugar capacity to aid sugar realisation

  • TEL witnessed sales growth of 26.0% of | 1345.9 crore led by 45.2% growth in distillery sales and 26.3% growth in sugar sales. Gear business sales grew 12.4% & water business sales grew 43.1% during the quarter

 

  • Sugar sales have been driven by higher sugar volumes & slight uptick in prices. Domestic sales quota was up 22.6% to 2.59 lakh tonne whereas sugar realisation was up 1.6% to | 35.4/kg

 

  • The strong 45.2% growth in distillery sales was led by higher volume as well as increase in realisation. Higher distillery volume was mainly led by addition of capacities in June 2022 and scaling up of country liquor business. Moreover, higher proportion of B-heavy ethanol sales resulted in inching up of distillery realisation

 

  • Distillery volume were up 23.3% to 4.57 crore litre with 12.8% increase in average realisation of | 58.1/litre. IMIL sales were up 61.9% to 5.97 lakh cases. B-heavy ethanol & grain based ethanol constitutes 70% & 24%, respectively, of total ethanol sales volumes during the quarter

 

  • The company is holding 2.08 lakh tonnes of sugar inventory valued at
    | 32/kg. Cost of production in 2021-22 sugar season was higher by | 3/kg due to increase in sugarcane prices & lower recovery rate in 2021-22 season. However, given sugar realisation was only higher by | 0.5/kg, sugar segment margins have come down during the quarter

 

  • Wage arrears of the last three years to the tune of | 5 crore have increased operational cost for the company. Further, increase in levy molasses quota from 18% to 20% also reduced ethanol production in the season. Operating profit declined 57.5% to | 45.4 crore

 

  • UP is expected to see 4% increase in sugarcane crushing in 2022-23 season and the company is expected to witness higher than 4% crushing in the season

 

  • TEL would maximise B-heavy ethanol production and would also utilise grain based ethanol capacities in 2022-23 season. Sugarcane juice based ethanol require higher pricing to attract addition of capacities

 

  • The current distillery capacity is 660 KLD (21 crore litre). With the completion of capex of 450 crore litre by December-2023, TEL’s total distillery capacity would be 1110 KLD (31 crore litre)

 

  • The company has increased its refined sugar capacity from 40% to 60% of its total sugar production. Further, it has enhanced liquid sugar capacity as well. The refined & liquid sugar fetches |1-2 / kg higher realisation in domestic markets

 

  • Domestic refined & sulphurised sugar prices are prevailing at | 36.9 /kg and | 36.2/kg. Sugar production in the country is expected to be ~36 MT (after 4.5 MT diversion towards ethanol). With the consumption of 27.5 MT, the industry would have surplus 9 MT for exports

 

  • The government has allowed 6 million tonnes (MT) of exports in 2022-23 season by allocating 18.4% of the average three-year production. Further, it is also likely to announce additional ~3 MT of exports in the next four to five months. TEL received 2.04 lakh tonnes (lt) of export quota. It has already contracted for more than 1 lt of exports for refined white sugar at premium to domestic prices

 

  • Gear business order booking grew by 19.3% to | 59.9 crore whereas closing order book was at | 245.2 crore. Though the gear business sale has increased by 12.4% margins have come down by ~380 bps due to some supply chain disruptions

 

  • Water business saw 43.1% jump in sales but margins were down 220 bps. The business has achieved commercial operations date (COD) for entire Mathura hybrid annuity mode (HAM) project. The outstanding order book as on September 30, 2022 was at | 1579.4 crore, which include | 939.5 crore towards O&M contracts for a longer period of time

 

  • The company divested its entire stake in associate company Triveni Turbine during the quarter. This resulted in exceptional income of | 1401.2 crore during the quarter

 

  • It has announced a buyback of | 800 crore at | 350/share. The company would buy back 2.28 crore shares, which is 9.45% of total equity and promoters would participate in this buyback

 

  • Consolidated net debt was at | 720.7 crore as on September 2022 compared to | 1568 crore as on March 2022. Cost of debt is 5.16%. This is without considering proceeds of | 1593 crore from divestment of Triveni Turbine stake

 

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

 

Read More