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  • CMP : 4,045.2 Chg : -63.50 (-1.55%)
  • Target : 1,510.0 (22.37%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Apr 2022

Positive commentary on revenue, margin augurs well

Strong presence in the fashion and value apparel

Trent is India’s leading retailer with a presence across various consumer categories (435+ stores). Inherent strength of brands (Westside, Zudio, Star, Zara) and accelerated store additions have led Trent to be among the fastest growing companies in our retail coverage universe.

  • ‘Westside’ (75% of revenues) has proven to be one of the most profitable business models as it primarily focuses on selling private label brands (EBITDA margin: 11%, consistent SSSG: 8-9%)
  • ‘Zudio’ (25% of sales), the value fashion brand, continues to be the next leg of growth for Trent (revenue CAGR: 50% FY18-21)
Q4FY22 results review

Revenue trajectory continued to be robust despite various challenges. However, profitability was lower than our estimates owing to higher opex on new store additions.

  •                 Revenue grew 53% YoY to ₹ 1185.26 crore. Two-year CAGR continued to be impressive (28%) and significantly ahead of peers. Westside format registered healthy SSSG of 21% and 16% vs. Q4FY21/20, respectively
  • Reported gross margins were 49.1% (down 405 bps YoY) due to lower full price participation in January. Furthermore, pre-operating expenses owing to significant store additions in the fag-end of the quarter led to EBITDA margins declining 480 bps YoY to 12.9%
  • Reported higher other income worth ₹ 102 crore (Q4FY21: ₹ 72.4 crore), which includes dividend income from subsidiary, investment income and rental waivers. Subsequently, PAT grew 32% YoY to ₹ 74.9 crore
What should Investors do?

Trent has been an exceptional performer with the stock price appreciating at ~35% CAGR in the last five years.

  • Robust performance during challenging times and industry leading performance will continue to warrant premium valuations for Trent. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Trent at ₹ 1510 based on SOTP valuation 

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We pencil in 215 store additions between Westside and Zudio for FY23-24E
  •                 Liquidity position remains robust with cash & investments worth ₹ 600+ crore that will enable it to tide over the current situation better than peers
  • Zudio continues to be the growth engine for Trent. We expect revenues to grow at CAGR of 48% in FY22-24E
  • In the long run, the company aims to grow its revenue at CAGR of 25%+
New Stock Ideas

: Apart from Trent, we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail

  • ABFRL has charted out growth strategies to become a ~US$2.8 billion entity (₹ 21000 crore) by FY26E, translating to 15% CAGR in FY20-26E
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 360/share

Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,185.3 1,145.0 773.7 53.2 1,347.8 -12.1   Robust recovery on the back of improved demand and higher operational days in the fashion segment. Westside reported 16% SSSG vs. pre-covid levels
Other Operating Income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Raw Material Expense 603.0 562.2 362.3 66.4 657.2 -8.2    
Gross Profit 582.2 582.8 411.4 41.5 690.6 -15.7    
Gross Profit Margin 49.1 50.9 53.2 -405 bps 51.2 -211 bps   Gross margins declined on a YoY basis owing to lower full price sales
Employee exp 100.7 95.0 68.2 47.6 84.7 18.8    
Other Exp 329.2 286.3 206.6 59.3 314.1 4.8    
EBITDA 152.3 201.5 136.6 11.5 291.7 -47.8   Higher opex on account of new store additions impacted EBITDA margins
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.9 17.6 17.7 -480 bps 21.6 -879 bps    
Depreciation 80.9 76.3 61.7 31.1 73.4 10.3    
Other Income 102.1 31.4 72.4 41.0 29.6 244.8   Other income includes rental waiver, dividend and investment income
Interest 78.7 70.4 61.8 27.4 73.4 7.3    
Exceptional Income -0.2 0.0 -6.3   0.0      
PBT 94.7 86.2 79.2 19.6 174.6 -45.8    
Tax Outgo 19.9 21.7 22.3 -11.0 41.7 -52.4    
Minority Interest                
PAT 74.9 64.5 56.9 31.7 132.9 -43.7    

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