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  • CMP : 3,798.9 Chg : 39.40 (1.05%)
  • Target : 1,800.0 (17.72%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 Jul 2022

Branded franchisee robust; Margins to trend up…

About The Stock

Incorporated in 1959, Torrent remains a key play on branded generics (~60% of sales) with strong India franchise and growing exports traction

  • Revenues – India including CRAMs (57%), Brazil (9%), US (13%) and Germany (11%).
  • Torrent is the eighth largest domestic player and is ranked in top 10 for CVS, CNS, V&M, GI and anti-diabetes therapies in India
Q1FY23

Growth in revenues boosted by branded portfolio.

  • Sales were up 10% YoY to ₹ 2347 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 712 crore, up 5% YoY with margins at 30.3%

PAT was at ₹354 crore (up 7% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Torrent’s share price has grown by ~1.9x over the past three years (from ~₹ 815 in July 2019 to ~₹ 1529 levels in July 2022).

  • Upgraded from HOLD to BUY due to 1) Good traction in branded business in India on back of field expansion and robust launch schedule, 2) Focussed approach in CVS, CNS and Diabetic branded generics in Brazil and 3) Margin expansion on back of cost savings measures and pricing power in the branded space besides expected normalcy in Germany from H2FY23 and the US (subject to the USFDA plant clearances)
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 1800 i.e. 33x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 54.6

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • In India, Torrent has expanded field strength by ~300 MRs. Also, it forayed into fast growing trade generic segment for acute therapies
  • Torrent has good presence in Brazil and expects traction for new launches in branded space while Germany tender business to recover in H2FY23
  • Awaiting clearance for Dahej and Indrad facility from the USFDA. New launches are key to offsetting persisting price erosion in business.
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Torrent, in healthcare coverage we like Cipla

  • Cipla has long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1135

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 7,776.0 7,939.0 8,005.0 8,508.0 7.8 9,434.4 10,502.3 11.1
EBITDA 2,087.0 2,170.0 2,480.0 2,431.0 12.0 2,861.9 3,255.9 15.7
EBITDA margins (%) 26.8 27.3 31.0 28.6 - 30.3 31.0 -
Net Profit 828.4 1,025.0 1,252.0 1,084.4 -3.6 1,477.3 1,846.4 30.5
EPS (|) 48.9 60.6 74.0 64.1 - 43.7 54.6 -
PE (x) 87.8 46.1 37.8 60.9 - 35.0 28.0 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 25.0 24.2 20.7 20.9 - 18.8 16.0 -
Price to book (x) 10.0 9.8 8.1 7.9 - 7.3 6.1 -
RoNW (%) 17.5 21.2 21.4 18.2 - 20.9 21.8 -
RoCE (%) 14.2 15.4 17.6 19.7 - 24.7 29.4 -
Debt / Equity 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 - 0.4 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Steady Quarterly Performance

  • Revenues grew 10% YoY to | 2347 crore. Domestic formulations grew by 14% YoY to | 1245 crore driven by outperformance of top brands together with new launches and market share gains across focus therapies, while 20% YoY growth to | 184 crore in Brazil was witnessed due to strong growth in generic segment, performance of top brands and new launches. US business grew 12% YoY to | 299 crore mainly due to One time of settlement income of | 38 crore in this quarter. Growth was partially offset by 18% YoY decline in Germany to | 214 crore amid increase in competition and loss of tenders in previous quarters. EBITDA margins declined 139 bps YoY to 30.3%, above I-direct estimate of 28%. EBITDA grew 5% YoY to | 712 crore. Subsequently, adjusted profit improved 7% YoY to | 354 crore.
  • Torrent Pharma’s Q1FY23 revenues was in-line with I-direct estimates while margin profile was better than our expectations. Torrent’s branded businesses growth momentum was led by India performance. Management’s cost optimisation measures have helped to get back on track with respect to margins in this quarter while India and Brazil business continues to be on a strong footing. Torrent has initiated measures to improve price competitiveness in Germany. Torrent continues to impress thanks to thoughtful capital allocation and robust margin profile, which can be attributed to a global portfolio of branded generics. The company’s portfolio is finely balanced between India, Brazil, Germany and the US with India being the leader.

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India – Secondary market data growth (17%) Breakup: New launches – 3%, Price – 8%, Volume – 5% in Q1FY23. Company added 300 MRs with total count now at 4200. Torrent is looking to launch 7-8 products per quarter with few cardiac launches and product extension scheduled for Q3 and Q4 Trade generics contribute ~ 2.5% to India business.
  • US sales – One time of settlement income of | 38 crore in this quarter positively impacted this quarter. US base business has come down due to price erosion partly offset by Dapsone launch. Company has no update from USFDA regarding inspections. Management is guiding for near to double-digits filings in FY23.
  • Brazil – Adjusted for the discontinued tender business in the previous year, constant currency growth is 10%. About 88% of business is in branded generics, which has grown at 13% in Q1FY23 according to industry data. Management is guiding for high single to double digit growth going forward. Torrent has launched 5 products in 2022, with 2 being large in size but with intense competition. Management is looking to increase market size in these from single digit to double digit.
  • Germany – Torrent had 4 launches in Q1 and another 4 is likely to come in Q2FY23. New Tenders to start from Q3FY23. Due to intense competition, tenders are likely to fetch lower margins. Torrent has undertaken cost optimization measures to be more competitive.
  • Torrent’s manufacturing facility are at 54% utilization levels.
Variance Analysis

  Q1FY23 Q1FY23E Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,347.0 2,367.8 2,134.0 10.0 2,131.0 10.1   YoY growth driven by India and Brazil performance
Raw Material Expenses 660.0 686.7 588.0 12.2 622.0 6.1    
Gross margins (%) 71.9 71.0 72.4 -57 bps 70.8 107 bps    
Employee Expenses 420.0 426.2 385.0 9.1 364.0 15.4    
Other Expenditure 555.0 592.0 484.0 14.7 584.0 -5.0    
EBITDA 712.0 663.0 677.0 5.2 561.0 26.9    
EBITDA (%) 30.3 28.0 31.7 -139 bps 26.3 401 bps   YoY decline due to higher employee cost and other expenditure on a low base of Q1FY22
Interest  55.0 40.9 68.0 -19.1 57.0 -3.5    
Depreciation 155.0 173.4 165.0 -6.1 162.0 -4.3    
Other Income 30.0 46.9 40.0 -25.0 56.0 -46.4    
PBT before EO & Forex 532.0 495.6 484.0 9.9 398.0 33.7    
EO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 485.0 0.0    
PBT  532.0 495.6 484.0 9.9 -87.0 LP    
Tax  178.0 158.6 154.0 15.6 31.0 474.2    
PAT before MI 354.0 337.0 330.0 7.3 -118.0 LP    
MI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adjusted PAT 354.0 337.0 330.0 7.3 539.8 -34.4   Profit is adjusted for one-time loss for impairment provision for discontinuation of liquids business in US for | 485 crore
Key Metrics                
India 1,245.0 1,246.0 1,093.0 13.9 1,034.0 20.4   Secondary market data growth (17%) Breakup: New launches – 3%, Price – 8%, Volume – 5%
Brazil 184.0 206.6 153.0 20.3 251.0 -26.7   Constant currency revenue was up by 8% YoY. Adjusted for the discontinued tender business in the previous year, the growth is 10%. 
US 299.0 283.9 266.0 12.4 282.0 6.0   One time of settlement income of | 38 crore 
Germany 214.0 221.0 260.0 -17.7 218.0 -1.8   Growth impacted by challenges in tender segment

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