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Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,691.0 Chg : -3.30 (-0.12%)
  • Target : 3,235.0 (15.74%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 May 2022

Strong branded franchisee; margins to improve…

About The Stock

Incorporated in 1959, Torrent has a strong presence in domestic and semi-regulated markets and a growing presence in regulated markets.

  • Revenues – India including CRAMs (57%), Brazil (9%), US (13%) and Germany (11%)
  • Torrent is the eighth largest domestic player and is ranked in top 10 for CVS, CNS, V&M, GI and anti-diabetes therapies in India
Q4FY22

Growth in revenues boosted by branded portfolio.

  • Sales were up 10% YoY to ₹ 2131 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 561 crore, down 4% YoY with margins at 26.3%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 540 crore (up 67% YoY) [note: Profit is adjusted for one-time loss for impairment provision for discontinuance of liquids business in US for ₹ 485 crore]
What should Investors do?

Torrent’s share price has grown by ~2.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1239 in May 2017 to ~₹ 2858 levels in May 2022).

  • Upgrade from HOLD to BUY due to 1) good traction in branded business with India, Brazil growth prospects looking solid, 2) Expected margin expansion to be driven by cost savings (due to hiving off of US Liquids facility- ~₹ 135 crore annually), pricing power in the branded space besides expected normalcy in Germany and the US (subject to the USFDA plant clearances)
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 3235 i.e. 30x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 107.8.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Levittown facility, US inspected with zero observations by USFDA
  • Key Risk: (i) Regulatory Delays (ii) Lower traction for new launches
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Torrent, in healthcare coverage we like Cipla.

  • Cipla has long-drawn strategy of targeting four verticals viz. One-India, South Africa & EMs, US generics & specialty and lung leadership BUY with a target price of ₹ 1095

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 7,776.0 7,939.0 8,005.0 8,508.0 7.8 9,428.2 10,448.5 10.8
EBITDA 2,087.0 2,170.0 2,480.0 2,431.0 12.0 2,817.1 3,239.2 15.4
EBITDA margins (%) 26.8 27.3 31.0 28.6 - 29.9 31.0 -
Net Profit 828.4 1,025.0 1,252.0 1,084.4 -3.6 1,468.3 1,824.3 29.7
EPS (|) 48.9 60.6 74.0 64.1 - 86.8 107.8 -
PE (x) 87.8 46.1 37.8 60.9 - 32.2 25.9 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 25.0 24.2 20.7 20.9 - 17.5 14.7 -
Price to book (x) 10.0 9.8 8.1 7.9 - 6.7 5.6 -
RoNW (%) 17.5 21.2 21.4 18.2 - 20.8 21.6 -
RoCE (%) 14.2 15.4 17.6 19.7 - 24.3 29.1 -
Debt / Equity 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 - 0.4 0.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Revenues Steady, Margins Impacted

  • Revenues grew 10% YoY to | 2131 crore. Domestic formulations grew 12% YoY to | 1034 crore aided by new launch momentum, robust performance of top brands and continued market outperformance across focus therapies, while 33% YoY growth to | 251 crore in Brazil was witnessed on account of performance of top brands and new launches. US business grew 5% YoY to | 282 crore mainly on back of launch of Dapsone during the quarter. Growth was partially offset by 18% YoY decline in Germany to | 218 crore as business was adversely impacted by loss of products in a recent tender

 

  • EBITDA margins declined 372 bps YoY to 26.3%, in line with I-direct estimate of 26.2%. EBITDA de-grew 4% YoY to | 561 crore. Subsequently, adjusted profit improved 67% YoY to | 540 crore. [note: profit is adjusted for one-time loss for impairment provision for discontinuation of liquids business in US for | 485 crore]

 

  • Torrent Pharma’s Q4FY22 revenues were marginally better than I-direct estimates while margin profile was in line with our expectations. Torrent’s branded businesses contributed to 70% of total revenues in Q4 and grew 15% with India and Brazil continuing on a strong footing. The US business registered sequential growth aided mainly by launch of a new product while the company continues to face prolonged delays in re-inspection of US facilities on account of the pandemic, coupled with higher than anticipated pricing pressure in US business. The management has initiated cost optimisation measures, which should help get back on track with respect to margins in the upcoming quarters. The company’s portfolio is finely balanced between India, Brazil, Germany and the US with India being the leader. With consistent FCF generation and moderation in core capex, we expect the leverage situation to improve substantially

 

  • The Board of Directors recommended a final dividend of | 8 per equity share and a special dividend of | 15 per equity share, taking the total dividend to | 48 per equity share in FY22 (including interim dividend of | 25 per equity share). Additionally, board also recommended bonus share issue in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. one equity bonus share for each fully paid up equity share.

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

 

  • India – Growth (11%) Breakup: New launches – 3%, Price – 8%, Volume – Nil in Q4FY22. Growth was driven by CNS, Gastro and VMN. MRs ~ 3900 in Q4 versus 3600 in Q3, Torrent will add another 200-300 reps in Q1FY23. PCPM will continue to be at | 9-10 lakh. The company has a new launch pipeline in quarters ahead and also introducing new division in CVD. Trade Generics contributed ~ 1.5-2%. The management indicated at second wave launch by Q2FY23 and aspires for ~3-4% contriringing the pipeline products into the market and increased competition intensity, was discontinued. The operational cost of this facility was | 135 crore. Price erosion in US increased by low single digit QoQ and mid-teen YoY. As of Q4FY22, 57 ANDAs were pending approval with USFDA and five tentative approvals were received. Six ANDA were filed and one was approved
  • Brazil - Constant currency sales at Brazilian Real 172 million in Q4 vs. 135 million in Q3. Growth (20%) breakup: New launches – 13-14%. Torrent gained traction from five new launches since November 2021 and new division in CNS segment

 

  • Germany - Revenue at €26 million in Q4 vs. 28 million in Q3. Growth impacted due to due to price erosion and lack of tenders (~60% of business in Germany). New tenders to start from September-October. The company is planning 10-15 launches in H2FY23

 

  • Margins -  Impacted in Q4 due to higher other expenditure due to lumpiness in US fillings, as most came in Q4, higher freight cost. The management indicated at ~300 bps margin improvement due to 1) no operating expenses for liquid facility, 2) Cost optimisation measures at facilities to yield results from Q1, 3) price increase in branded generics, 4) Operating leverage to improve once facilities get USFDA clearance and 5) normalisation of higher freight cost.
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 2,131.0 2,063.2 1,937.0 10.0 2,106.0 1.2   YoY growth driven by India and Brazil performance
Raw Material Expenses 622.0 619.0 496.0 25.4 638.0 -2.5    
Gross margins (%) 70.8 70.0 74.4 -358 bps 69.7 111 bps   YoY mid-teen price erosion in US
Employee Expenses 364.0 383.8 341.0 6.7 388.0 -6.2    
Other Expenditure 584.0 521.0 518.0 12.7 544.0 7.4    
EBITDA 561.0 539.5 582.0 -3.6 536.0 4.7    
EBITDA (%) 26.3 26.2 30.0 -372 bps 25.5 87 bps   YoY decline led by lower gross margin performance and higher other expenditure amid higher freight cost, most ANDA and DMFs filing coming in Q4
Interest  57.0 62.0 73.0 -21.9 62.0 -8.1    
Depreciation 162.0 167.0 165.0 -1.8 167.0 -3.0    
Other Income 56.0 47.0 39.0 43.6 50.0 12.0    
PBT before EO & Forex 398.0 357.5 383.0 3.9 357.0 11.5    
EO 485.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0   One-time loss for impairment provision for discontinuation of liquids business in US for | 485 crore
PBT  -87.0 357.5 383.0 PL 357.0 PL    
Tax  31.0 108.2 59.0 -47.5 108.0 -71.3    
PAT before MI -118.0 249.4 324.0 PL 249.0 PL    
MI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Adjusted PAT 539.8 249.4 324.0 66.6 249.0 116.8   Profit is adjusted for one-time loss for impairment provision for discontinuation of liquids business in US for | 485 crore
Key Metrics                
India 1,034.0 1,005.0 922.0 12.1 1,072.0 -3.5   Torrent growth aided by new launch momentum, robust performance of top brands and continued market outperformance across focus therapies
Brazil 251.0 211.7 189.0 32.8 182.0 37.9   YoY growth witnessed on account of performance of top brands and new launches
US 282.0 244.5 269.0 4.8 235.0 20.0   YoY growth mainly on back of launch of Dapsone during the quarter
Germany 218.0 235.0 267.0 -18.4 237.0 -8.0   Growth impacted by challenges in tender segment

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