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Titan Company Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,584.8 Chg : 13.70 (0.38%)
  • Target : 2,960.0 (19.31%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Mar 2022

Strong operational performance continues…

About The Stock

Titan has transformed itself from a watch maker to an enviable lifestyle company, with jewellery being the leading vertical (82% of revenues). Robust distribution network comprises 1900+ stores spread across 2.5 mn sq ft.

  • Titan has consistently displayed its ability to gain market share amid a tough industry scenario owing to its robust balance sheet (30%+ RoCE and cash & investments worth ₹ 2000+ crore) and strong brand patronage
Q3FY22 Results : Strong performance by jewellery segment

Titan’s Q3FY22 result was better than our estimates owing to all-time high EBITDA margins, aided by a strong gross margin performance.

  • As guided by the management in its pre-quarterly update, the jewellery division (excluding gold bullion sale) reported 39% YoY revenue growth. Overall jewellery sales (including gold bullion worth ₹ 54 crore) was at
    ₹ 9059 crore (up 32% YoY)
  • Overall revenue grew 32% YoY to ₹ 10037 crore. Studded share improved marginally. Titan reported its highest EBITDA margins of 14.4%
  • Robust operational performance resulted in the company reporting its highest ever quarterly PAT of ₹ 1012 crore
What should Investors do?

Titan has been an exceptional performer in the discretionary space with stock price appreciating at ~46% CAGR in last five years.

  • We continue to remain structurally positive on the stock as high growth visibility justifies premium valuations and maintain a BUY on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Titan at ₹ 2960 i.e. 68x FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Robust balance sheet and asset light distribution model has enabled it to outpace peers in terms of store addition (to add ~35 Tanishq stores in FY22)
  • Tanishq’s penetration is still at a very nascent stage in the Indian jewellery market. This provides immense opportunity for Titan to enhance its market share. Mandatory gold hallmarking would further enhance market share gains from unorganised space
  • Thrust on wedding space is bearing fruit with wedding jewellery becoming a critical growth driver while its share in overall jewellery revenue has increased meaningfully
  • Gradual recovery in studded ratio to aid gross margins, going forward
  • We bake in revenue, earnings CAGR of 25%, 58%, respectively, in FY21-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

: Besides Titan in our retail coverage, we also like Bata India.

  • Bata has a strong b/s, diversified branded product portfolio and pan India network which would enable sustained long term profitable growth
    • BUY with target price of ₹ 2380/share

Key Financial Summary

Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 year CAGR
- - - -
Net Sales 19,779.4 21,051.5 21,644.0 14.0 29,187.3 35,207.9 42,608.2 25.3
EBITDA 2,136.5 2,466.6 1,724.0 13.0 3,646.0 4,505.0 5,576.9 47.9
PAT 1,390.8 1,501.4 973.0 - 2,435.9 3,069.2 3,865.2 58.4
EPS (|) 15.8 16.9 11.0 - 27.4 34.6 43.5 -
P/E (x) 156.5 146.3 225.8 - 90.2 71.6 56.8 -
EV/Sales (x) 11.1 10.4 10.0 - 7.4 6.1 5.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 102.4 89.1 125.6 - 59.3 47.8 38.9 -
RoCE 32.3 28.7 17.6 - 33.9 33.9 34.2 -
RoE 23.1 22.5 13.0 - 25.4 25.5 25.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

  Q3FY22 Q3FY22E Q3FY21 YoY (%) Q2FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 10037.0 9896.6 7619.0 31.7 7493.0 34.0   Grammage grew by 47% YoY, while gold prices were down 4% YoY in Q3FY22
                 
Raw Material Expense 7,501.0 7,560.7 5,900.0 27.1 5,618.0 33.5   Underlying gross margin (aided by low cost diamond inventory) was at best level over the recent six quarters in Q3FY22
Employee Expenses 324.0 354.4 267.0 21.3 317.0 2.2    
Advertising Expenses 208.0 226.4 105.0 98.1 135.0 54.1    
Other Expenses 562.0 492.2 499.0 12.6 455.0 23.5    
                 
EBITDA 1,442.0 1,262.9 848.0 70.0 968.0 49.0    
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.4 12.8 11.1 324 bps 12.9 145 bps   Reported strong EBITDA margins
Depreciation 98.0 106.1 96.0 2.1 104.0 -5.8    
Interest 57.0 52.5 51.0 11.8 51.0 11.8    
Other Income 57.0 56.7 40.0 42.5 55.0 3.6    
                 
PBT before Exceptional item 1,344.0 1,160.9 741.0 81.4 868.0 54.8    
Exceptional Item 0.0 0.0 0.0   0.0      
PBT 1,344.0 1,160.9 741.0 81.4 868.0 54.8    
Tax Outgo 332.0 292.2 211.0 57.3 227.0 46.3    
PAT 1012.0 868.7 529.0 91.3 641.0 57.9    
                 
Key Metrics                
Jewellery                
Revenues (| Crore) 9,059.0 8,899.5 6,836.0 32.5 6,571.0 37.9   SSSG:  31%, Retail sales growth: 37%
                 
Segment EBIT Margin (%) 14.2 NA 11.2   12.2      
Watches                
Revenues (| Crore) 710.0 705.3 551.0 28.9 689.0 3.0    
                 
Segment EBIT Margin (%) 11.3 NA 2.7   13.1      

 

Change in Estimates

      FY22E     FY23E     FY24E  
(| Crore)   Old New % Change Old New % Change Old New % Change
Revenue   28,534.0 29,187.3 2.3 34,241.0 35,207.9 2.8 40,639.0 42,608.2 4.8
EBITDA   3,420.7 3,646.0 6.6 4,345.2 4,505.0 3.7 5,233.7 5,576.9 6.6
EBITDA Margin (%)   12.0 12.5 50 bps 12.7 12.8 11 bps 12.9 13.1 21 bps
PAT   2,267.3 2,435.9 7.4 2,949.7 3,069.2 4.0 3,608.5 3,865.2 7.1
EPS (|)   25.5 27.4 7.6 33.2 34.6 4.1 40.6 43.5 7.2

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

 

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

 

 

 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

 

 


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