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Time Technoplast Ltd>
  • CMP : 272.7 Chg : -2.20 (-0.80%)
  • Target : 125.0 (21.36%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Aug 2022

Strong revenue growth; high RM cost drags margin…

About The Stock

Time Technoplast is a leading manufacturer of polymer based packaging & composite products with 34 production facilities in 11 countries.

  • Established products (industrial packaging, PE pipe, battery others) contribute ~80% to the topline while value added product category (IBC, composite cylinders, mox films) contribute 20% of revenue         
  • Focus is to increase revenue sharing from value added product category in the next five years from 20% to 22%
Q1FY23 Results

Strong revenue growth led by composite product segment; high raw material cost delayed a margin recovery

  • Revenues increased 25% YoY to ₹ 945 crore, led by ~36% growth in the composite product to ~₹ 312 crore. Favourable base and execution of new orders helped drive revenue growth in Q1
  • EBITDA margin down 24 bps YoY (150 bps down from its pre-Covid level) mainly due to higher raw material costs
  • PAT up 54% YoY to ₹ 45 crore, tracking higher sales in Q1
What should Investors do?

Time Technoplast’s share price has grown by ~2x over the past three years (from ~₹ 57 in August 2019 to ~₹ 103 in August 2022).

We revise our rating from HOLD to BUY on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at 5x EV/EBITDA on FY24E EBITDA and revise our target price to ₹ 125/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company has laid out plans to achieve ₹ 5000 crore revenue by FY25 (implied CAGR of 14% in FY21-25) led by value added product segment
  • Time Techno sees strong revenue traction (₹ 2200 crore/annum) from its newly launched CNG cascade business (not built in future estimates)
  • Improved product mix is expected to drive EBITDA margin, going forward, (aims to increase EBITDA margin to 15.5% FY25E)
Alternate Stock Idea

We like Supreme Industries in our coverage universe.

  • Supreme is the market leader in the plastic piping segment with ~15% market share. Robust b/s with average RoE, RoCE of 24%, 27%, respectively
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 2175

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net sales 3,563.7 3,578.0 3,004.9 3,649.8 0.1 4,202.1 4,725.2 0.1
EBITDA 523.5 498.9 387.1 505.8 0.0 569.2 668.7 0.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.7 13.9 12.9 13.9 - 13.5 14.2 -
PAT 202.7 169.1 107.8 192.2 0.1 228.5 295.6 0.2
EPS (|) 9.0 7.5 4.8 8.5 - 10.1 13.1 -
P/E (x) 11.5 13.8 21.6 12.1 - 10.2 7.9 -
Price/Book Value (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 - 1.1 1.0 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 6.0 7.5 6.1 - 5.2 4.4 -
RoE (%) 12.1 9.3 5.7 9.3 - 10.7 12.5 -
RoCE (%) 15.0 12.5 8.7 11.3 - 12.8 14.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Composite product segment drives topline in Q1

  • Time Techno reported revenue growth of ~25% YoY to | 945 crore supported by volume growth of 13% on a favourable base
  • Segment wise, composite product segment revenue increased 36% YoY to | 312 crore led by strong growth in the composite cylinders’ segment by 72% YoY. The company has ~| 250 crore order book in the composite cylinder (Type IV) segment
  • The polymer products revenue also increased ~20% YoY to | 632 crore supported by improved demand for plastic products (largely plastic drums/jerry cans, pails, etc). PE pipe revenue increased 15% largely on a favourable base
  • EBITDA margin came in at 13.1%, down 24 bps YoY (150 bps lower than its pre-Covid level), mainly due to higher RM costs. However, savings in other operating costs helped restrict overall EBITDA margin fall in Q1
  • PAT increased 54% YoY to | 45 crore tracking higher sales in Q1

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Demand outlook: The management has reiterated revenue growth of ~15% in FY23 led by strong growth in the composite product segments. The management is aiming at | 350 crore from the composite cylinder segment in FY23E
  • The company received an order of 0.75 million Type-IV LPG composite cylinders from Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), which is to be supplied over the coming 12 months. Time Techno expects a repeat order from IOCL in the coming quarters
  • The company reported CNG cascade revenue of | 30 crore (vs. | 7 crore in Q1FY22). Time Techno is seeing a good response to its Type-IV composite cylinders for CNG cascade. The current order book is at | 250+ crore
  • The composite product segment commands EBITDA margin of ~18% vs. ~14% of company level margin. Hence, rising contribution of composite products in the topline will drive EBITDA margin up, going forward
  • Volume offtake in pipes business is still under pressure due to unprecedented hike in raw material prices, resulting in a delay in procurement by EPC contractors
  • Volatility in raw material prices, supply chain disruption and delay in taking price hikes has put pressure on margins
  • The company envisages capex of | 180 crore in FY23 of which | 100 crore will be for capacity expansion and rest will be maintenance capex
  • The company has appointed JP Morgan India and Ernst & Young India as advisors to finalise consolidation/restructuring of overseas business by way of disinvestment of majority stake to Strategic Partner/ Investor Partners
  • The proceeds will be used for repayment of debt, capex for composite cylinders (LPG/CNG/Hydrogen) & core business in India to meet huge market demand and also used to benefit shareholders
Variance Analysis
  Q1FY23 Q1FY22 YoY (%) Q4FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 944.5 754.4 25.2 1,039.0 -9.1   Revenue growth was led by 13% volume growth in Q1
Other Income 0.4 0.4 10.0 1.4 -71.2    
Raw Material Exp 682.3 529.7 28.8 740.7 -7.9   Delay in price hikes and adverse product mix dragged gross margin down by ~200 bps YoY
Employee Exp 48.0 42.5 13.1 49.6 -3.2    
Other expenditure 90.5 81.7 10.8 109.9 -17.7    
EBITDA 123.6 100.5 22.9 138.7 -10.9    
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.1 13.3 -24 bps 13.3 -26 bps   Saving in other expenses and employee costs (as per cent of sales) restricted EBITDA margin fall at 25 bps YoY
Depreciation 40.7 38.5 5.6 40.4 0.8    
Interest 23.1 23.4 -1.2 22.7 1.9    
PBT 60.2 39.0 54.4 77.1 -21.8    
Total Tax 15.2 9.8 55.0 20.3 -25.2    
               
PAT 45.1 29.2 54.2 56.8 -20.6   PAT came in higher by ~54% YoY, tracking topline growth in Q1
Key Metrics              
Polymer products 632.3 525.0 20.4 727.0 -13.0   Packaging (Excl IBC) revenues increased by 23% on a favourable base and revival in demand of packaging products from chemical/pharma companies. However, PE pipes volume offtake remained impacted due to slow order exeuctions 
Composite products 312.2 229.4 36.1 311.9 0.1   Execution of new orders from IOCL of LPG cylinders and ramp up in CNG cascade helped drive segment revenues 

Disclaimer

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