loader2
Partner With Us NRI
The Ramco Cements Ltd>
  • CMP : 799.5 Chg : -7.85 (-0.97%)
  • Target : 735.0 (14.84%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

25 May 2022

Cost pressure to stay at elevated levels; Debt levels to pick out

About The Stock

Ramco Cements is the dominant player in South India with cement capacity of 19.4MT spread across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. In terms of sales, South contributes ~71% of sales while East contribute 24% which is served via grinding units in WB (2MT) and AP (2MT).

  • The company also has windmill capacity of 166MW, captive thermal power plants of 175MW and 18MW of WHRS.

Self-reliance on power, split grinding units near markets and focus on green power has helped the company to remain cost efficient player in South India

Q4FY22

Lower base and better than expected realisations led to sequential improvement in the performance.

  • Revenues improved 10.3% QoQ to ₹1709.1 crore. Volumes were up 4% QoQ (down 0.6% YoY). Realisations were up 6.1% QoQ, 5.4% YoY
  • Cost pressure and high base lead to margin contraction of 1027bps YoY to 17.3 while it improved sequentially by 237bps.
  • Net profit grew 50.3% QoQ to ₹124.1 crore although it was lower by 42% on YoY basis
What should Investors do?

Long operational history, brand equity and cost efficiency has helped the company to raise debt at competitive rates. 

Post completion of capex, debt levels would peak-out. However, near-term cost challenges to keep check on margins. Hence, downgrade our rating to HOLD from BUY rating.

Target Price Valuation

We value Ramco at ₹735 i.e.12x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Incremental volumes from new units (1MT GU, & 2.25MT clinker unit in Kurnool) would help to grow the business from FY23E onwards.
  • Expect sales volume CAGR of 12.2% during FY22-24E
  • Debt levels to peak out in FY22; The Company aims to become debt free in 3 years thereafter.

Key concall highlights

  • Demand in Q4: Unseasonal rains in South till Jan-22 and weak demand in East led to volume de-growth during Q4FY22. The current monthly offtake is over 1MT. Given this, volume offtake for Q1FY23E is likely to be over 3MT.
  • Demand outlook: For FY23E, management has given volume growth guidance of 13-15% led by expected strong traction in Eastern region. The share of premium product to increase to 30% in FY23 vs 22% in FY22.
  • Fuel cost: The blended fuel cost for Q4FY22 was at $199/t. The current fuel cost is at $225/tonne for the company. The company has also booked some shipments at $210/tonne also. The company holds 4-5 months of inventory.
  • Focus on green power: With commissioning of the 3rd WHRS boiler in Apr-22, the entire WHRS capacity of 27MW in Jayanthipuram is fully in operation. It has helped to moderate the overall power & fuel cost to some extent. The share of green power now stands at 16% vs 11% last year which will further increase to 20% by increasing WHRS capacity from 27MW to 39MW in FY23E.
  • Cement Prices: Cement prices in South and East region are higher by ₹10-15/bag and ₹20/bag respectively. At current cost, the cement prices need to further increase by ₹40/bag to achieve EBITDA/t of ₹1300/t     
  • Capex update: The trial production of clinker unit at Kurnool (2.25MT), is going on. With this, the clinkering capacity is now at 13.65MT. The cement grinding facility (1MT), 6MW of WHRS in Kurnool will be commissioned in Jun-22/Jul-22 respectively. After that, the cement capacity will cross 20MT. Balance 6MW of WHRS and 18 MW of TPP will be commissioned in Mar-23. Further, the company aims to commission a new 1MT GU in Karnataka by FY24E at a capex of ~₹350 crore. It also plans to set up a grinding unit in southeast Maharashtra, the land for the same is yet tobe finalised.
  • Focus on the premium products: Company to expand the capacity of its dry mix products in Tamilnadu, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh with the total estimated cost of ₹160 crore. The 2 units in Tamilnadu will be commissioned in FY23 and remaining 2 units at AP & Odisha will be commissioned in FY24.
  • Capacity upgradation: The modernisation of RR Nagar plant at a cost of ₹476 crore by installing a new energy efficient kiln of 3000 TPD is expected to be commissioned in FY23E. After completion of this project, the clinker capacity at RR Nagar will increase from 1.09 MTPA to 1.44 MTPA. With this upgradation, management expects annual cost savings of ₹50 crore.
  • Capex/Debt: Capex for FY22 was at ₹1816 crore. To incur capex of ₹1350 crore (incl. maintenance capex ₹250 crore) in next two years. Capex for FY23E likely be ₹600 crore. Gross debt stood at ₹3930 crore. Debt to reduce by ₹500 crore in FY23E. The current cost of borrowing is at 5.54% vs 6.59% LY
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Ramco, in our cement sector coverage we also like Ultratech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8,000/sh

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY21-FY23E)
Net Sales 5,146.3 5,389.3 5,268.4 5,980.0 5.1 6,981.4 7,821.9 14.4
EBITDA 1,054.8 1,147.4 1,548.0 1,283.8 6.8 1,282.5 1,679.5 14.4
EBITDA (%) 20.5 21.3 29.4 21.5 - 18.4 21.5 -
Adjusted PAT 523.0 601.4 761.1 587.1 3.9 585.5 872.6 21.9
EPS (|) 22.2 25.5 32.3 24.8 - 24.8 36.9 -
EV/EBITDA 15.7 15.8 11.6 14.6 - 14.5 10.7 -
EV/Tonne ($) 152.8 141.9 133.0 138.8 - 131.3 120.9 -
RoNW 11.7 12.2 13.5 9.0 - 8.2 10.9 -
RoCE 8.2 7.5 8.6 8.9 - 5.7 7.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Rashesh Shah, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More