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The Ramco Cements Ltd>
  • CMP : 800.2 Chg : 0.70 (0.09%)
  • Target : 760.0 (7.50%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 Feb 2023

Ongoing capex to keep debt at elevated levels

About The Stock

Ramco Cements is the dominant player in South India with cement capacity of 21 MT spread across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. In terms of sales, south contributes ~71% of sales while east contributes 24%, which is served via grinding units in West Bengal (2 MT) and Andhra Pradesh (2 MT).

  • The company also has windmill capacity of 166 MW, captive thermal power plants of 175 MW and 18 MW of WHRS
  • Self-reliance on power, split grinding units near markets and focus on green power has helped the company to remain a cost efficient player in South India
Q3FY23 Results:

The performance improved sequentially led by cost stabilisation with respect to new plant in Kurnool and the same remained ahead of our estimates.

  • Revenues came in at ₹ 2011.6 crore (up 29.9% YoY, 12.1% QoQ), that were higher than our estimates (₹ 1943.0 crore) largely due to better realisations
  • Absolute EBITDA/tonne came in at ₹ 793/tonne (vs. I-direct estimate ₹ 753/tonne). It was up 3.4% YoY, 39.8% QoQ.
  • Net profits were lower by 20.5% YoY to ₹ 65.6 crore (marginally lower than I-direct estimate ₹ 72.1 crore) on higher interest & depreciation costs
What should Investors do?

Long operational history, brand equity and cost efficiency has helped the company to raise debt at competitive rates

  • While the levers are there for margin expansion and growth, the higher capex would keep debt at elevated levels thereby impacting return ratios. We now change our rating to HOLD from REDUCE on the stock.
Target Price and Valuation

We value Ramco at ₹ 760 i.e. 13.0x FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Incremental volumes from new units (1 MT GU, & 2.25 MT clinker unit in Kurnool) would help to grow the business, going forward
  • Expect sales volume CAGR of 18.6% during FY22-24E while margins to stabilise at 20% levels in FY24E
  • However, debt levels to stay elevated given its aggressive capex guidance
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Ramco, in our cement sector coverage we also like UltraTech.

  • It is a market leader with strong brand in the retail segment.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 8,050/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (%) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (%)
Net Sales 5,146.3 5,389.3 5,268.4 5,980.0 5.1 7,510.2 8,406.6 18.6
EBITDA 1,054.8 1,147.4 1,548.0 1,283.8 6.8 1,088.7 1,705.6 15.3
EBITDA (%) 20.5 21.3 29.4 21.5 - 14.5 20.3 -
Adjusted PAT 523.0 601.4 761.1 587.1 3.9 324.9 756.0 13.5
EPS (|) 22.2 25.5 32.3 24.8 - 13.8 32.0 -
EV/EBITDA 17.2 17.2 12.7 15.9 - 19.5 12.3 -
EV/Tonne ($) 167.4 154.2 144.6 150.5 - 150.1 141.5 -
RoNW 11.7 12.2 13.5 9.0 - 4.7 9.9 -
RoCE 8.2 7.5 8.6 8.9 - 4.2 7.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • Sales volume were up 18.6% YoY, 7.9% QoQ to 3.57 MT (vs. I-direct estimate: 3.6 MT). Realisations were up 9.5% YoY, 4.0% QoQ to | 5635/t, better than estimates of | 5397/t
  • Fuel cost declined sequentially by 2.3% to | 1967/t. However, it still remained higher by 42.6% on a YoY basis. The blended fuel consumption per ton is equivalent to $191 vs. $149 last year
  • Imposition of busy season surcharge by railway from October 1 led to 11% QoQ jump in freight cost to | 1359/t. It was up 6.9% YoY. However, with better realisations, the company managed to mitigate the margin pressure with sequential margin expansion of 361 bps to 14.1%. On a YoY basis, it was down 83 bps only
  • During Q3, the company incurred | 390 crore towards capex, including for the above-mentioned ongoing capacity expansion programme. The net debt for the company as on December 31, 2022 was | 4,556 crore, out of which | 564 crore is short-term loan. Average cost of interest-bearing borrowings for Q3 of current year is increased to 7.13% from 5.44% in Q3 of the previous year

Key conference call highlights

  • Demand in Q3 & Outlook: Volume growth was healthy at 18.6% YoY (7.9% QoQ) to 3.57 MT with 70% clinker utilisation. Infrastructure demand was the primary demand driver in East and South India in Q3FY23. The utilisation of Kurnool plant (new unit) was at 85% in the last two months. The demand can likely grow by double digit in FY24E
  • Fuel cost: The blended fuel consumption per ton is equivalent to $191 vs. $149 last year. Petcoke share increased to 59% from 54% QoQ. Blended fuel cost per Kcal: Q3FY23: | 2.43; 9MFY23: | 2.35. Given the volatility in fuel prices, the company expects cost to stay at this level in Q4FY23
  • Focus on green power: The share of green power is now at 22% vs. 15% last year, which will increase further post commissioning of 12 MW WHRS capacity in Kurnool (5 MW November 22, 3 MW in February 2023 and 4 MW in May 2023). Post this. WHRS capacity will increase from 27 MW to 39 MW
  • Capex update: The management has maintained its capex guidance given in Q2 where it nearly doubled its capex guidance for FY23E and FY24E to
    | 1717 crore and | 892 crore, respectively vs. | 850 crore and | 550 crore, respectively, earlier. This is largely due to the preliminary work at the Kurnool unit (likely expansion of unit), expansion in Odisha and Karnataka (greenfield) market in order to protect the market share led by heightened competitive intensity. The capex details are as under: 1)              the cement production in Kolimigundla (Kurnool AP) has commenced from September 2022 onwards. 2) The 6 MW of WHRS in Kolimigundla was commissioned in November 2022. Balance 6 MW of WHRS will be commissioned in March 2023. TPP of 18 MW and railway siding will be commissioned in 2023-24. 3) To increase the grinding capacity of Haridaspur plant (Odisha), Odisha by 0.9 MTPA at a cost of only | 130 crore since other infrastructures are already in place, thereby doubling its capacity to 1.8 MTPA 4) To spend | 350 crore towards land acquisition for setting up cement plant near Bengaluru
  • Focus on premium products: The share of premium products during Q3 was at 26% vs. 25% last quarter and 23% last year. The company to expand the capacity of its dry mix products in Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh at a total estimated cost of | 160 crore. The two units in Tamil Nadu will be commissioned in FY23 (one commissioned in December 2022, another to get commissioned in February 2023) and remaining two units in Andhra Pradesh & Odisha will be commissioned in FY24. These four units have a revenue potential of ~| 100 crore (at optimal utilisation) with EBITDA margin at 20-30%
  • Capacity upgradation: The modernisation of RR Nagar plant will be commissioned before March 2023. After completion of this project, the clinker capacity at RR Nagar will increase from 1.09 MTPA to 1.44 MTPA. The management expects annual cost savings of | 50 crore
  • Capex/Debt: Capex for FY22 was at | 1816 crore. To incur capex of | 2609 crore in the next two years vs. earlier guidance of | 1,400 crore (including maintenance capex | 350 crore). TRCL aims to spend | 1711 crore (including maintenance capex of | 202 crore) as capex in FY23 of which it has already spent | 1376 crore during 9MFY23. Planned capex budget for FY24E is ~| 892 crore. Net debt reduced by ~| 200 QoQ to | 4556 crore. The average cost of interest-bearing borrowings during Q3 was at 7.13% vs. 6.4% QoQ
  • Non-core assets – The company is aiming to sell non-core assets (mostly land) to the tune of | 300-400 crore, which is likely to happen partially in Q4FY23 as well as the coming quarters

Key triggers for future price performance

New capacities to bring efficiency and spur growth: Incremental volumes from new units [2 MT already commissioned and 1 MT Odisha grinding unit (GU) commissioned in September 2020] helped to grow faster during FY21-22. Further, 1 MT GU along with 12 MW WHRS and 18 MW TPP are expected to get commissioned in FY23E. Factoring this along with expected higher realisations to offset against the cost pressure, we model 18.6% revenue CAGR in FY22-24E. While newly commissioned units would lead to a reduction in transit distance for target markets in East India, the commissioning of total 39 MW WHRS (18 MW in FY21, 9 MW in FY22 and 12 MW in FY23E) would bring efficiencies, going forward (likely cost savings of | 130 crore per annum).

Debt levels to stay high till FY24E: The management has nearly doubled its capex guidance for FY23E and FY24E to | 1717 crore and | 892 crore, respectively, vs. | 850 crore and | 550 crore, respectively, earlier. This is largely due to the preliminary work at the Kurnool unit (likely expansion of unit), expansion in Odisha and Karnataka market in order to protect the market share led by heightened competitive intensity. With total capex of | 2600 crore against expected operating cash flow of | 2400 crore, we expect debt levels to continue to stay elevated only (unless it is reduced through sale of non-core assets) against our earlier expectation of 20% reduction in the debt during the same period.

Valuation & Outlook

While the levers are there for margin expansion and growth, the higher capex guidance, would keep debt at elevated levels thereby impacting return ratios. Hence, we assign HOLD rating on the stock. We value Ramco at | 760 i.e.13.0x FY24E EV/EBITDA.

Disclaimer

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