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  • CMP : 1,578.4 Chg : 10.20 (0.65%)
  • Target : 1,410.0 (17.30%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 May 2022

New deal TCV remains healthy

About The Stock

Tech Mahindra (TechM) has over 1.2 lakh employees across 90 countries serving 1000+ clients with higher exposure to telecom (40% of revenues).

  • Apart from telecom, the company caters to BFSI, manufacturing & retail
  • TechM has grown organically & inorganically (dollar revenue CAGR of 6.6% over the past five years)
Q4FY22

TechM reported weak numbers on the margins front.

  • Dollar revenues increased 4.9% QoQ, while it was up 5.4% in CC
  • EBIT margins dipped 160 bps QoQ at 13.2%
  • New deal TCV at US$3.3 billion (bn) for FY22
What should Investors do?

TechM’s share price has grown by ~3.3x over the past five years (from ~₹ 383 in May 2017 to ~₹ 1,202 levels in May 2022).

  • We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value TechM at ₹ 1410 i.e. 17x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy deal wins, traction in communication segment led by legacy modernisation, 5G, customer care, automation, network and cloud to drive revenues
  • Pruning of low return geographies, acceleration in Europe and improving demand from lift & shift deals to drive 9.6% CAGR growth in FY22-24E
  • Margins in the near term would be impacted due to continued higher employee and subcontractor costs but are expected to recover
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from TechM, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  • HOLD with a target price of ₹ 2,000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 34,742.1 36,867.7 37,855.1 44,646.0 8.9 51,569.4 56,822.4 12.8
EBITDA 6,336.8 5,726.1 6,847.0 8,020.0 13.9 9,230.9 10,057.6 12.0
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.2 15.5 18.1 18.0 - 17.9 17.7 -
Net Profit 4,297.5 3,815.6 4,428.0 5,566.1 14.6 6,477.6 7,326.2 14.7
EPS (|) 47.7 59.5 50.2 63.1 - 73.4 83.0 -
P/E 25.2 20.2 23.9 19.1 - 16.4 14.5 -
RoNW (%) 21.2 17.5 17.8 20.7 - 21.3 21.2 -
RoCE (%) 23.6 18.3 19.8 22.5 - 23.9 23.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported 4.9% QoQ growth in revenues at US$1,608.1 mn while growth in CC terms was at 5.4% QoQ. In rupee terms, revenue grew 5.8% QoQ to | 12,166 crore. For FY22, the company reported revenues of US$5997.8 mn, growth of 17.3%

 

  • The revenue growth was aided by CME vertical, which grew 4.1% QoQ, BFSI came back strongly after furlough impact in Q3 and grew by 18.5% QoQ while technology vertical also reported strong growth of 16.1% QoQ. Retail, transport was laggard with decline of 6.2% QoQ. In terms of geographies, Americas reported growth of 3.6% QoQ. Growth in Europe was stellar at 8.6% QoQ while RoW reported 3.6% QoQ growth

 

  • The company indicated that communication will continue to be the growth driver for TechM, going ahead. The company indicated that digital transformation programs for telecom companies are different from other verticals as it run on end to end of the telecom network. The company indicated that continued spend by telcos on traditional network infra as well new areas of customer analytics, etc, would help with respect to differentiated offering, especially on the enterprise side

 

  • EBIT margins for the quarter were down 160 bps QoQ. Margins for the quarter were lower due to i) 80bps impact due to lower utilisation, higher salary and retention related costs and there was one-time favourable impact in costs in Q3, which was not there in Q4

 

  • There was also an impact of 80 bps due to additional investments in hardware as well impact of amortisation related to acquisitions. The company missed its FY22 EBIT margin guidance of 15% as EBIT margins came in at 14.6% for FY22. The company indicated that EBIT margins for FY23 may be in a similar range to that of FY23

 

  • The company called out the following levers for margin improvement, going forward: i) Pricing: The company mentioned that they have received price hike on some deals in H2FY22 but positive impact of the same was not visible in FY22 due to lag effect, the same is would have full impact in FY23 ii) Utilisation has come down in FY22 due to elevated fresher hiring (the company added ~10,0000 freshers in FY22). Cost hits P&L immediately but billing happens with a lag of a couple of quarters, iii) the company mentioned that they will take a re-look at their portfolio and identify the geographies where they are getting margin below the company margins and will exit gradually, iv) The continued focus on off-shoring

 

  • TechM indicated that they would pause acquisitions in FY23 and focus on integration of assets acquired. The company indicated that amortisation costs would largely be similar in FY23 and would taper down from FY24 onwards

 

  • TechM indicated that tax for the quarter was lower due to reversal of some tax related provisioning related to SEZ establishments. The company opted for new tax regime for FY22 and indicated that ETR would be in the range of 26-27% for FY23

 

  • TechM indicated that they have made some leadership changes in few of the geographies in Europe and North America last year and that has been resulted into the good growth in the region
 
  • The company indicated that they are not seeing any issues as far as current macro headwinds are concerned. TechM said it may give an opportunity for the clients to re-align their cost structure but they do not see any knee-jerk reaction in client spending
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY22   Q4FY22E   Q4FY21   YoY (%)   Q3FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue                 12,116        12,079        9,730          24.5      11,451             5.8  Revenue was aided by Europe gepgraphy while from Technology vertical 
 Employee expenses                   8,560          8,515        6,450          32.7        8,009             6.9  
               
 Gross Margin                   3,556          3,563        3,280            8.4        3,442             3.3  
 Gross margin (%)                     29.3            29.5          33.7  -436 bps           30.1  -71 bps   
 SG&A expenses                   1,468          1,474        1,332          10.2        1,382             6.2  
               
 EBITDA                   2,088          2,090        1,948            7.2        2,060             1.4  
 EBITDA Margin (%)                        17            17.3             20  -278 bps              18  -75 bps   
 Depreciation & amortisation                   484.2             387        395.1          22.6        362.1           33.7  
 EBIT                   1,604          1,703        1,553            3.3        1,698           (5.5)  
 EBIT Margin (%)                     13.2            14.1             16  -272 bps              15  -159 bps   EBIT margins impacted due to higher employee costs and higher amortisation charges ( acquisition related) 
 Other income (less interest)                      265             171              (9)    (3,007.7)           189           39.9  
 PBT                   1,869          1,874        1,544          21.0        1,887           (1.0)  
 Tax paid                      328             510           500         (34.4)           508         (35.5)  Tax was lower due to reversal of provisions made in the earlier quarters related to SEZ 
 PAT                   1,506          1,354        1,081          39.2        1,369           10.0  
 Adjusted PAT                   1,506          1,354        1,081          39.2        1,369           10.0  

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