loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Tech Mahindra Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,266.9 Chg : 3.40 (0.27%)
  • Target : 900.0 (12.02%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

29 Apr 2023

New order bookings below guided range…

About The Stock

Tech Mahindra (TechM) has over 1.2 lakh employees across 90 countries serving 1000+ clients with higher exposure to telecom (40% of revenues).

  • Apart from telecom, the company caters to BFSI, manufacturing & retail
  • TechM has grown organically and inorganically (dollar revenue CAGR of 6.7% over the past five years)
Q4FY23 Results:

TechM reported weak overall numbers in Q4FY23.

  • Revenue grew 0.3% QoQ in CC terms
  • EBIT margins declined ~80 bps QoQ at 11.2%
  • Won new deal TCV of US$592 mn, down 26% QoQ & 41% YoY
What should Investors do?

TechM’s share price has grown by ~1.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 671 in April 2018 to ~₹ 1,023 levels in April 2023).

  • We change our rating on the stock from HOLD to REDUCE
Target Price and Valuation

We value TechM at ₹ 900 i.e., 13x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy deal wins, traction in communication segment led by legacy modernisation, 5G, customer care, automation, network and cloud to drive revenues
  • Restructuring of low margin portfolios, acceleration in Europe and improving demand from lift & shift deals to drive 8.4% CAGR in FY23-25E
  • Margins are expected to improve due to pyramid optimisation, exit of low margin business, lower subcontractor costs and utilisation improvement
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from TechM, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,600

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net sales 36,867.7 37,854.8 44,646.0 53,290.2 11.6 56,199.3 62,605.0 8.4
EBITDA 5,726.1 6,846.7 8,020.0 8,028.7 11.3 8,711.1 10,521.4 14.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5 18.1 18.0 15.1 - 15.5 16.8 -
Net Profit 3,815.6 4,427.7 5,566.1 4,831.3 4.9 5,682.7 6,648.6 17.3
EPS (|) 59.5 50.2 63.1 54.8 - 58.3 68.3 -
P/E 17.2 20.4 16.2 18.7 - 17.5 15.0 -
RoNW (%) 17.5 17.8 20.7 17.3 - 18.3 19.2 -
RoCE (%) 18.3 19.8 22.5 20.5 - 21.0 22.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company’s dollar revenue growth was flat QoQ with revenue of US$1,668 million (mn) while CC growth came in at 0.3% QoQ. In rupee terms, TechM reported revenue of | 13,718 crore, down 0.1% QoQ. CME segment reported growth of 1.8% QoQ in CC terms while enterprise segment declined by 0.7% QoQ in CC terms. IT services revenue was flat during the quarter and BPS segment declined 0.4% QoQ

 

  • Vertical wise, CME (40.1% of mix), manufacturing (15.9% of mix) & BFSI (15.9% of mix) reported growth of 0.7%, 1.5% & 0.3% QoQ, respectively, while retail declined 10.4%. Hi-tech revenue was flat sequentially

 

  • Geography wise America (49.6% of mix) declined 0.3% QoQ while Europe (25.3% of mix) grew 3.5% QoQ. RoW region reported revenue decline of 2.9% QoQ

 

  • EBIT margins of the company during the quarter declined 80 bps QoQ to 11.2%. The company mentioned the margins declined due to the impact of: i) -60 bps impact of currency headwinds & ii) -90 bps impact of higher SG&A spend mitigated by the tailwind of +70 bps due to operational efficiency & lower sub-contractor expenses. The company mentioned that the higher SG&A expenses in Q4 were due to some year end cost cropping up and indicated that these expenses will normalise in the coming quarters

 

  • For FY23 the company reported revenue of US$6,607 mn, up 10.1% (13.7% in CC terms). In rupee terms, revenue grew 19.4% in the year. CME segment grew 9% (13.4% in CC) while enterprise grew 10.9% (13.9% in CC). The company mentioned that in enterprise segment retail & manufacturing reported strong growth in FY23. EBIT margin of the company declined 320 bps to 11.4% in FY23

 

  • The company indicated that the pipeline is robust and client conversation are positive. TechM said that in the past it has invested in some capabilities like metaverse, cloud, blockchain quantum computing and it is yielding good results for TechM. However, it mentioned that client decision making has been on a slower lane in the last couple of quarters. The company is also added that this is due to approval cycles getting longer as clients are now scrutinising budgets more minutely. Hence, it is causing a delay in decision making at their end. The company mentioned that it is likely to see similar patterns in H1FY24 while it is hopeful of a recovery of the same in H2FY24

 

  • The company mentioned that it would like to capitalise on this opportunity (in terms of weak macros) to go back to the drawing board and prepare itself for a recovery whenever it takes place. TechM indicated there are certain opportunities, which are still relevant such as i) cloud penetration is still at a lower side and it is a multi-year opportunity for them ii) 5G penetration is still lower and there is a significant scope available for growth ahead. The company mentioned that it has faced similar situation (weak macros) in the past as well and it is not something new that they are facing and they would like to calibrate their investments considering recovery. The company is planning to double down its investments in people in capabilities. The company also indicated that now Japan and Middle East are its new priority areas for investments. The company mentioned that client thrust of moving from legacy to digital continues

 

  • The company indicated broad sentiments in terms of technology use as an enabler especially in cost take out programs continues to find takers while transformation could be delayed. TechM indicated a few large deals, which it has signed are delayed due to in some cases, clients re-looking their budgets while in few cases, clients themselves are going though restructuring of their business

 

  • The company mentioned that it has seen consistent growth in its telecom business in the last few years and revenue run rate of 5G business (where they help telecom operators to roll out 5G services) has been on the rise and it is now touching US$1 bn annually. The company indicated that it is investing in technology agnostic solutions over the years, which includes software, network management, network efficiency, customer experience etc, which is a key differentiator for it compared to the competition. The company mentioned that it is a market leader in this space and quarterly fluctuation in revenues is not impacting them much. The company indicated that it has got 100 bps positive impact on pricing in the last fiscal i.e., FY23. However, considering the weak macros, it mentioned that there is a limited opportunity for a price hike and prices are likely to be stable at this point of time

 

  • The company indicated that its EBIT margins in FY23 were down 320 bps and majority of the headwinds were i) (-300 bps) due to wage hikes and backfilling costs due to attrition ii) (- 110 bps) due to SG&A normalisation iii) (-50 bps) due to M&A related costs iv) (-70 bps) on large deal related costs, which were negated by some tailwinds such as i) +100 bps pricing increase ii) +80 bps on lower subcontractor costs iii) +30 bps offshoring benefit

 

  • The company reiterated that it is focused on margin improvement and expects a margin recovery to pick up in H2FY24 when demand is expected to pick up. The margin improvement levers are the same that it mentioned previously: i) decline in sub-contractor cost, ii) benefits from large deal ramp up, iii) increase in offshoring, pyramid optimisation and iv) pruning of low margin business. The company also mentioned that it will automate some of the processes, which will also aid in margin expansion. TechM mentioned that it will roll out wage hikes in a staggered way over two to four quarters in FY24

 

  • The company’s top five/10 client’s revenue contribution declined for a fourth successive quarter. The company revenue from top five/10 clients declined by 4.9% & 2.4% QoQ, respectively. TechM mentioned that the top client’s revenue decline has almost bottomed out
  • The company missed its guided range TCV wins of US$700-1000 mn during the quarter. TechM in Q4 won a TCV of US$592 mn, down 25.5% QoQ & 41.4% YoY. The company mentioned that the uncertain macros are leading to delayed decision making and was also cautious behaviour by clients that has impacted the deal wins. TechM also mentioned that deal signings could be little soft in H1FY24 due to delayed decision making from clients

 

  • LTM attrition during the quarter declined 250 bps QoQ to 14.8%. Utilisation of the company during the quarter improved 10 bps QoQ to 86.5%

 

  • The company’s net headcount during the quarter declined by 4,668 bringing the total employee headcount to 152,400 employees. The company mentioned that net decline in employees is due to lower backfilling of open positions through lateral hirings. The company mentioned that its internal fulfilment has increased from 46% to 71% with upskilling & training of employees and also attrition level has declined leading to net decline in employees

 

  • The company during the quarter declared a final dividend of | 32 per share taking the total dividend announced for FY23 to | 50 per share

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.         

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. Registered Office Address: ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400 025. CIN: L67120MH1995PLC086241, Tel: (91 22) 6807 7100. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. None of the research recommendations promise or guarantee any assured, minimum or risk-free return to the investors.

Name of the Compliance officer (Research Analyst): Mr. Anoop Goyal

Contact number: 022-40701000 E-mail Address: complianceofficer@icicisecurities.com

For any queries or grievances: Mr. Prabodh Avadhoot Email address: headservicequality@icicidirect.com Contact Number: 18601231122

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More